Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[Faugheen_Machine]

Goshen targeting the Ebor according to Moore. Not a chance of getting a run off 88 so will need to win one, probably two, before he is rated high enough to get in.

[callhimgamblor]

Wouldn't put that passed him though.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Wouldn't put that passed him though.

I wouldn't either but he would have needed to be rated 105 to get a run last season. They'd be mad not to go for a flat campaign given the prize money available for staying races on the flat.

I'd be getting him lined up for the Cesarewitch rather than the Ebor if he was mine.

[Kevloaf]

Champion Hurdlers having flat campaigns?

I'd be feeling sick if I'd got on him for a Champion Hurdle and heard the trainer talking about flat handicaps.



Goshen is a terrible bet at the prices. I've written two pages on why that i'm waiting to post, just to wind people up
..

[Eggs]

.....notice somebody ‘requesting a bet’ with Sky for a Jamie Osborne 3yo called Overpriced Mixer in the Triumph. Been running on the all weather.

[Istabraq]

.....notice somebody ‘requesting a bet’ with Sky for a Jamie Osborne 3yo called Overpriced Mixer in the Triumph. Been running on the all weather.

I couldn’t have Jamie Osbourne training a Triumph hurdle winner, not sure I could name a single graded NH winner he’s trained and he’s had his licence for 20 years.
I know there was investment in the yard 3/4 years ago but that was to focus on all weather and unless there’s further big investment/sponsorship he looks the type of trainer that relies on January winners at Wolverhampton with the occasional nugget

[Nortons who]

I couldn’t have Jamie Osbourne training a Triumph hurdle winner, not sure I could name a single graded NH winner he’s trained and he’s had his licence for 20 years.
I know there was investment in the yard 3/4 years ago but that was to focus on all weather and unless there’s further big investment/sponsorship he looks the type of trainer that relies on January winners at Wolverhampton with the occasional nugget

Morning Ista - the twist to this which could make a difference is that it's being trained by Nicky Henderson. I raised this one on 30th March in my AP diary and you kindly reminded me that Nicky had succes in the Triumph with Pentland Hill for an owners group.

My post at the time:

'On a similar theme had another free bet to use and noticed that Overpriced Mixer is in the betting for theTriumph Hurdle. Trained now by Nicky Henderson for a syndicate (which is the slight worry as his better Triumph horses in recent years have been for high profile owners), 0.5pt at 57-1 with boost'

[Istabraq]

OK, apologies, I misunderstood.

I don’t know of any formal tie/relationship between Hendo and Osbourne but they did of course pair up as trainer and jockey and are Lambourn neighbours so something might exist.
Anyone know of any link between the two ?

[Nortons who]

OK, apologies, I misunderstood.

I don’t know of any formal tie/relationship between Hendo and Osbourne but they did of course pair up as trainer and jockey and are Lambourn neighbours so something might exist.
Anyone know of any link between the two ?

Hi Ista - all I found was this info re Owners Group on Twitter advising horse had been placed with Nicky as trainer.

https://twitter.com/TheRacingStage/status/1191766822393188357?s=19

[EnvoiAlien]

if people really believe hurdles form counts when it comes to chasing I'm clearly in the wrong place.
Best of luck.

[Kautostar]

if people really believe hurdles form counts when it comes to chasing I'm clearly in the wrong place.
Best of luck.

Please explain your thoughts as I completely disagree

[Willdunn99]

if people really believe hurdles form counts when it comes to chasing I'm clearly in the wrong place.
Best of luck.

How do you bet on novice chase’s? Ignore hurdles form and just pick a nice named horse ?

[Vautour]

if people really believe hurdles form counts when it comes to chasing I'm clearly in the wrong place.
Best of luck.

Thank you, come again ET...

[Eggs]

How do you bet on novice chase’s? Ignore hurdles form and just pick a nice named horse ?

....I suppose one way of looking at this is to consider Arkle and RSA winners to determine how many were useless novice hurdlers.

[Kevloaf]

Please explain your thoughts as I completely disagree

I think his point is that hurdles form only takes you so far, chasing is very different so to not accept that it may change would be foolish when they do change discipline.

How do you bet on novice chase’s? Ignore hurdles form and just pick a nice named horse ?

He didn't say that did he? He's saying take in their chase debut.
The obvious example is Sprinter Sacre... would you have known he was a 190 rated chaser based on his hurdling? Would you have picked Denman out? They were clearly decent over hurdles, but chasing is a different discipline.

We are GUESSING/HOPING/ASSUMING that Shishkin takes to fences. At 4/1, you have bascially backed that to already be the case.

I'd say it's odds on that he (SHishkin) does take to fences.... but EA's point I feel is valid as a general point.

....I suppose one way of looking at this is to consider Arkle and RSA winners to determine how many were useless novice hurdlers.

You actually do have a point here, obviously ignore 'useless' but there is a difference between all these following horses as Grade 1 Hurdlers and Grade 1 Chasers is there not?


Might Bite definitely....
Lord Windereme?
O'Faley Boy?
Put The Kettle On?
Duc Des Genievres?
That horse you get banned for mentioning.....
Shattered Love?
Beneffecient?




There are probably loads more....