Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[Altior]

Samcro was bought to be a 3mile chaser too and sure he went to the Marsh as well. I stand by what I said a few days ago, does the same prep races as Samcro and Delta Work (DR and Drinmore) and then a decision is made whether they send him to Limerick or Leopardstown for Christmas

[Parachute Paddy]

I do think the Marsh is the obvious early target and will likely back him for this race next week. That said Archie’s point about what happened with Alloha this season is worth noting. Obviously very different horses but if you think Willie (and those round him) would have much preferred to run him an open looking Marsh then it looks like the owners pulled rank due to their preference for running at the longer distance. That’s the only concern I have about the target and is why I would like cash out available

Have the owners come out and said they were behind the Allaho decision?

At the time I saw it as Willie splitting up his horses, he ran 4 in the Marsh and 2 in the RSA. The decision to step Easy Game up baffled me as well as he seemed a Marsh type based on his previous runs. He could've easily run all 6 in the Marsh. Allaho or Faugheen were the obvious ones to step up having had hurdle runs over 3m and he went with Allaho. I think it was Willie just splitting his horses unless I'm missing something?

[Kevloaf]

Have the owners come out and said they were behind the Allaho decision?

At the time I saw it as Willie splitting up his horses, he ran 4 in the Marsh and 2 in the RSA. The decision to step Easy Game up baffled me as well as he seemed a Marsh type based on his previous runs. He could've easily run all 6 in the Marsh. Allaho or Faugheen were the obvious ones to step up having had hurdle runs over 3m and he went with Allaho. I think it was Willie just splitting his horses unless I'm missing something?

Willie said that the RSA was the owners decision.

I haven't seen a quote from the owners saying it.

No reason to think Willie Mullins was lying about it.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

If I was to hazard a guess at the Gigginstown / Elliott novice chase targets it would as follows:

Arkle: Felix Desjy
Marsh: Easywork & Envoi Allen
RSA: Fury Road
NH Chase: Commander of Fleet

[Parachute Paddy]

If I was to hazard a guess at the Gigginstown / Elliott novice chase targets it would as follows:

Arkle: Felix Desjy
Marsh: Easywork & Envoi Allen
RSA: Fury Road
NH Chase: Commander of Fleet

Surprised you haven't included Andy Dufresne in there. He's one who's gone under the radar and I'd be interested to see what they do with him next season but chasing sounds the plan.

“Mark (Walsh) said he hit a bit of a flat patch, but then he kept galloping and he couldn’t pull him up after the line."

“He’ll be a nice horse to go jumping fences. He’s only a shell of a horse.”

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Surprised you haven't included Andy Dufresne in there. He's one who's gone under the radar and I'd be interested to see what they do with him next season but chasing sounds the plan.

“Mark (Walsh) said he hit a bit of a flat patch, but then he kept galloping and he couldn’t pull him up after the line."

“He’ll be a nice horse to go jumping fences. He’s only a shell of a horse.”

My list was not exhaustive by any stretch. I agree with you, I think Andy Dufresne will be a better chaser than hurdler. I can’t quite figure out his optimal distance at this stage. I suspect 2m 4f would be his optimal trip. I, for one, will be monitoring his price when his target becomes clearer. I was disappointed with Hills 14-1 TWAR.

[Altior]

Andy Dufresne wins the Ryanair one day

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Willie said that the RSA was the owners decision.

I haven't seen a quote from the owners saying it.

No reason to think Willie Mullins was lying about it.

Thanks, not sure I knew that Willie had actually come up out and said that. Might have forgot this but was thinking it was more a theory based on how things played out, albeit one I was quite sympathetic to

[Eggs]

....fascinating the disparity in price between some runners in certain races.

Diol Ker is a stand-out 44-1 (with boost) Hills in RSA, yet as low as 16s with 365 and Lads.

[Istabraq]

....fascinating the disparity in price between some runners in certain races.

Diol Ker is a stand-out 44-1 (with boost) Hills in RSA, yet as low as 16s with 365 and Lads.

16/1 is a joke of a price IMO for a horse who has been off the track for 6 months and could have any number of potential engagements, if fit, next March.
Whilst many of us would be thinking RSA or NH Chase for Diol Ker the Irish minds might easily be plotting one of the handicap chases...

[7barrows]

Evening -
New to here after following a lot of ante post videos from around November last year. I hope ive picked up quite abit along the way! Backed shiskin 16s & Epatante 16s. Santini 12s etc. (that second hurt me!)

I wanted to run some views past you lot and am looking forward to using this forum leading into cheltenham 2.

I love shishkin, he is my favourite horse in training and will be backing him all summer at 4/1 to win anyrace (4/1 best price for the arkle now so this cover makes sense) . Ive been doing some research and after altior won the supreme in 2016 he opened 5/1 to win the arkle 2017 and went off 1/4 on the day! He shortened to 2/1 over that summer and after winning a novice chase in november he was 7/4 best price december 2016. I cant help but get excited this is history repeating itself.

Henderson has already said that Shishkin will stay two miles -

"Everything that could've possibly gone wrong did go wrong in the Supreme but he still won," said Henderson. "He was in a hopeless position but the great thing with him is that he's got gears and class, when you've got them they can get you out of trouble.

"I would've thought he'd go chasing now, him and the third Chantry House who is a nice horse too. Shishkin will stay at two miles, and Allart [fifth], but Chantry House will probably want further."

Heres the full article - https://www.racingpost.com/news/hend...chasing/430471


I also think EPATANTE will be near on impossible to beat in next years champ hurdle as is likely to improve again and her 7 pound allowance on top is sure to help. GOSHEN is a MACHINE but dont 5 year olds have a terrible record up against the big boys & girls?!


CHACHAN POR SOI - Champion chase.... clearly the best horse on ability and I think third time lucky for him at cheltenham

SANTINI for the gold cup --- He has unfinished business in the GC and you know 1000% his whole campaign will be plotted towards this race next year . He's slow and lacks pace but he has only had 6 runs over fences and nobody seems to have noticed he was wearing first time cheek pieces and jumped alot better and didnt seem to be as lazy... I spent about 2 hours reading all comments on most the forum pages here and no mention of old santini ... why isnt he getting more talk? if he didnt have to switch wide twice coming home he gets up and winss.

Just wanted to share my SHISHKIN love and perhaps raise a talking point on why SANTINI hasnt earnt much respect and/or has people missed the cheekpieces for the first time in the gold cup, these clearly helped?

[Kevloaf]

Welcome to the forum George. Out of interest, where did you hear about it/us?

If you're starting your own ante post diary, do it here: http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/forum...tepost-Diaries

If you want a profile picture, go here and read post 1: http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showt...cture-requests


I'll let others tackle the questions for now

[7barrows]

I was searching for altiors odds post supreme 2016 for my researched into shishkin for the arkle and found you funnily enough kev from an old forum on here from 2016... If I remember correctly you were punting the altior and yokhill double back in septemner 2016.... and it landed

lets do the same with SHISH & Envoi and good to see you are still going strong!!

[Faugheen_Machine]

I was searching for altiors odds post supreme 2016 for my researched into shishkin for the arkle and found you funnily enough kev from an old forum on here from 2016... If I remember correctly you were punting the altior and yokhill double back in septemner 2016.... and it landed

lets do the same with SHISH & Envoi and good to see you are still going strong!!

Altior was available at 5/1 right up until Hendo confirmed that they were going I over fences, then the price got cut across the board. I think his price held until September time.

[Istabraq]

Welcome George, great opener.

Plenty of love for Santini here, but having been on a win only 40/1 voucher as well as Goshen, Column of Fire and Thyme Hill my Friday was one of the most frustrating days I’ve ever endured so I’ve not debated last month much but I completely agree about Santini, could easily be a better horse next March than he was this March, but I’ve a feeling he will need to be.

I think this year was yet another top quality RSA, the winner could easily win multiple Gold Cups with improved jumping, Minella Indo should improve for experience and a better prep, and I know how highly Closutton rate Allaho so if this is to be his trip he is likely to go close.

I’ll never be Epatante’s biggest fan but the division needs a star.
Let’s see what novice hurdlers go chasing first as I think one or two could be special hurdlers.

Your points re Shishkin, and price analogy with Altior, are valid, I just struggle backing 4/1 shots 11 months out.
If you can be sure it's the target then the Arkle can be a race to get stuck into a long way out, I doubt there’s been more than 2 or 3 renewals in the past 15 years of ten or more runners so price collapses are very possible, but having been seriously hurt by non runners over the years I prefer to accept that I’ll miss value but have a decent hit when NRNB kicks in....