Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[SeanRock]

Wanted to sit tight on the hand & let Paul declare Topofthegame when he sees fit to do so, as I can see him being overly targeted in the market & jump on a l knee jerk B365 reaction when it inevitably materialises.

The blue lagoon on oddschecker has me getting trigger happy however! Should I sit tight or follow the sheep?

[BigChaang]

Wanted to sit tight on the hand & let Paul declare Topofthegame when he sees fit to do so, as I can see him being overly targeted in the market & jump on a l knee jerk B365 reaction when it inevitably materialises.

The blue lagoon on oddschecker has me getting trigger happy however! Should I sit tight or follow the sheep?

.... Baaaaa Baaaa !!. ,

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Wanted to sit tight on the hand & let Paul declare Topofthegame when he sees fit to do so, as I can see him being overly targeted in the market & jump on a l knee jerk B365 reaction when it inevitably materialises.

The blue lagoon on oddschecker has me getting trigger happy however! Should I sit tight or follow the sheep?

Hey Sean, as mentioned a few times it is silly season this year with prices being cut left right and centre at this very early stage. Like a fair few others I’m very keen on Topofthegame for next year’s Gold Cup in small part as I don’t think this year’s RSA was as good as the year before.

You’ve probably seen it but here is Nicholls recent update on the horse:

https://www.sportingexcitement.com/horse-racing/paul-nicholls-stars-on-comeback-trail-with-topofthegame-back-in-work-and-cyrname-given-sandown-option

If all goes to plan he will go straight for Ladbrokes Trophy. He has been well supported in recent weeks for that race and is best priced 11s boosted which I took the other night in part as hope to go this year. So something to think about is whether you think he is better value for that over the GC (22s boosted). The double which was 150/1 is now into 66s which is probably about right based on his current price for the Ladbrokes. I’ve already had a bit on that and may have a few more free bets on over the next few months as it could still be value as expect him to go off half that price for the Ladbrokes if he lines up.

I haven’t backed him with real money for the Gold Cup (just a free bet) as I’m focusing more on the Ladbrokes and the double. If he were to get beat in that his GC price may not change or if he really disappoints could go out and you may not be so keen to back him for the GC anyway. Interested to hear what others think

[BigChaang]

Well I'm definitely a sheep , The way i look at it is .
I backed T.O.T.G for this years gold cup & he was a n/r.
So i was always going to back him again for next year .
Actually i got in really early , so have decent prices on him.
Appreciate it might not be the best approach to A/p .
But i usually have at least a couple of runners in each race .
Smaller bets - bigger prices. In my view can afford a n/r here and there.
I didn't see or hear about P.N mentioning the Ladbrokes Trophy .
So it makes more sense now why he's been backed recently.
Also , with little racing on , i s'pose people concentrating on A/P ??.
for the time being .

[CUEMYCARD]

Morning all.
Just watching the Friday back.
Obvs Goshen was by far the beat horse in the Triumph.
Taking him out Burning Victory came from a mile back to beat
the others.
50/1 CH, 20/1 Mares Hurdle, 25/1 Mares Chase.

Any if those represent decent value to anyone ?

[Priceiskey]

Morning all.
Just watching the Friday back.
Obvs Goshen was by far the beat horse in the Triumph.
Taking him out Burning Victory came from a mile back to beat
the others.
50/1 CH, 20/1 Mares Hurdle, 25/1 Mares Chase.

Any if those represent decent value to anyone ?

Personally I’d give her no chance in a Champion Hurdle so if I was you and wanted to get her on side, it would have to be the Mares Hurdle out of the three listed. 20/1 is about right at this stage.

[Priceiskey]

Hey Sean, as mentioned a few times it is silly season this year with prices being cut left right and centre at this very early stage. Like a fair few others I’m very keen on Topofthegame for next year’s Gold Cup in small part as I don’t think this year’s RSA was as good as the year before.

You’ve probably seen it but here is Nicholls recent update on the horse:

https://www.sportingexcitement.com/horse-racing/paul-nicholls-stars-on-comeback-trail-with-topofthegame-back-in-work-and-cyrname-given-sandown-option

If all goes to plan he will go straight for Ladbrokes Trophy. He has been well supported in recent weeks for that race and is best priced 11s boosted which I took the other night in part as hope to go this year. So something to think about is whether you think he is better value for that over the GC (22s boosted). The double which was 150/1 is now into 66s which is probably about right based on his current price for the Ladbrokes. I’ve already had a bit on that and may have a few more free bets on over the next few months as it could still be value as expect him to go off half that price for the Ladbrokes if he lines up.

I haven’t backed him with real money for the Gold Cup (just a free bet) as I’m focusing more on the Ladbrokes and the double. If he were to get beat in that his GC price may not change or if he really disappoints could go out and you may not be so keen to back him for the GC anyway. Interested to hear what others think

I have done exactly the same as you. I got on the double at 100/1 thanks to a few on here who pointed it out. Plus I’ve started topping up on the single for the Ladbroke. I had my biggest ever Ante post bet on him for the Ladbroke last year which really hurt when he was taken out. I still say he would of won easily but that’s racing. This year I’m just having 5s and 10s here and there. Hopefully he makes it this time.

[The Don]

Whilst not being someone to back a Tizzard horse usually I do think the Big Breakaway could be a monster over races - a Topofthegame mark 2 and I think 33s for the RSA is huge. He tanked through the Albert Bartlett and ran a huge race, I don’t think they were over hard on him either once his chance had gone. Can’t understand why the big getaway is a shorter price other than the trainer!

TBB won his point over 3 and depending where envoi goes he could end up at the top of the market come March.

Gysey island at 10s could be ridiculous if she is sound. She is a monster. Nice little ew double

[archie]

Whilst not being someone to back a Tizzard horse usually I do think the Big Breakaway could be a monster over races - a Topofthegame mark 2 and I think 33s for the RSA is huge. He tanked through the Albert Bartlett and ran a huge race, I don’t think they were over hard on him either once his chance had gone. Can’t understand why the big getaway is a shorter price other than the trainer!

The Big Getaway finished over 6 lengths in front of The Big Breakaway in the Ballymore and is rated 150 to TBB's 144. A more likely reason for being shorter for the RSA than the name of the trainer. 33/1 is a fair price but you wouldn't be over-confident this far out about which race Tizzard will pick for him.

[BigChaang]

The Big Getaway finished over 6 lengths in front of The Big Breakaway in the Ballymore and is rated 150 to TBB's 144. A more likely reason for being shorter for the RSA than the name of the trainer. 33/1 is a fair price but you wouldn't be over-confident this far out about which race Tizzard will pick for him.

I'll try not to add 2+2 and get 5 , but i mentioned last week that Corals.
and Ladbrokes have cut T.B.B to 12 -1 for the Marsh nov chase.
As the Tizzards are " ambassadors" ? for Coral , do they(coral ) have a clue that.
the marsh is more likely ??, they are 25-1 for the R.S.A. ??.

[The Don]

The Big Getaway finished over 6 lengths in front of The Big Breakaway in the Ballymore and is rated 150 to TBB's 144. A more likely reason for being shorter for the RSA than the name of the trainer. 33/1 is a fair price but you wouldn't be over-confident this far out about which race Tizzard will pick for him.

Oops I read the horses the wrong way around! Those 2 confuse the life out of me!

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Oops I read the horses the wrong way around! Those 2 confuse the life out of me!

One thing I would be a little wary of backing the Big Breakaway for the RSA was that price move on him for the Marsh where Laddies/Coral cut him to just 12s the other week. Still a big price with others, so wouldn’t be that influenced. Just recalling the early season support for Reserve Tank while misplaced did land the right target which never appeared in doubt.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Find it a little interesting that PP/BFSB are stand out best priced for EA on both the Marsh and RSA but second shortest on him for the Arkle. Again probs don’t mean much at this early stage but unlike them to be pricing it the opposite way round to what many of us expect on here

[The Don]

Just rewatched the ballymore and retract most of the above!!

No way TBB goes Marsh, he was badly outpaced but stayed up the hill well given a fairly soft ride given his chance had gone.

TBG could easy run in either.... Allahabad take 2!

[Outlaw]

Andy Holding delving into the Stayers market and ruffling the price on Sire Du Berlais can see the argument but would rather these tipsters have a couple months off