Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

If you consider the owners, Envoi Allen is, for me, more likely for the RSA. They will generally go for the longer race option because they want staying chasers. They were, after all, able to persuade Willie to send Allaho to it and Gordon is much more pliable.

Either way, you would be mad to take a single figure price in either race this far out as a single. In a multiple the same restrictions do not apply but I'd suggest that TWAR is the safe way this far out.

That’s a really good point Archie, I definitely felt the owners pulled rank with Alloha which explained the mix signals for his target. Might temper my enthusiasm for too many free bets on EA for the Marsh as don’t like to waste them

[The King Pimm]

I just re-watched the Triumph and slow motioned Goshen at the final fence. I’ve watched that race 5 times since the festival week and I never noticed his rear hoof getting stuck in his front shoe for that split second that caused Jaime Moore to be thrown off like a car heavy braking and skidding. Even though he jumped the last fence very poorly if his hooves/shoes hadn’t got stuck together I reckon he would have had a bad wobble and loss of momentum but no other horse would have caught him. I think he would have won by 6-8 lengths due to the loss of momentum but he still had enough in the tank.

[The King Pimm]

I took 25’s on The Big Getaway for the RSA with B365. I didn’t think his price would still be that big.

[archie]

Goshen would have won for sure but he wouldn't have had the shoe incident had he not walked through the final hurdle. It's an open question about why he walked through the final hurdle but it's certainly a defensible position that he slowed down approaching it. Maybe he was tiring, maybe Moore gave him the wrong signals. Again, not a single figure price bet as it stands.

[Eggs]

....notice ATRs Gary Nutting has gone for another ante-post with Samcro for the Ryanair.

[Saxon Warrior]

Saxon I very much enjoy reading your posts but I want to take issue with you on your rating of Goshen's performance

I’m not going to blow away your assessment, we all have our own takes on races, having our own unique ideas is the main advantage we each have.

I think that Aba, Goshen and Shishkin would be worthy participants for the Champion Hurdle, and near the top of the market.
They are fortunate that there is plenty of space for top quality 2M Grade 1 Hurdlers at the moment.

I would also add in Saint Roi as a novice that would enter that group, even though his current rating wouldn’t be as high than the other three, he is unexposed and proved that he too, revels at Cheltenham.

I wouldn’t back Aba, or Goshen myself, as single figure win bets for the Festival in 50 weeks time are not bets I would consider for any horse.

Aba has had 5 Grade 1 races, and won one, beating the mare Heaven Help Us, so that gives me reason for thinking there could be others better. But of course he could improve for a second season hurdling.

I don’t think Shishkin will go for the CH, unless he does a Buveur D’Air and reverts back, and I’m not betting that this would happen.

Goshen is better (IMHO) than a lot of previous winners of the Triumph, maybe only Our Conor in recent times was similarly impressive (fall aside, for Goshen of course) and OC acquitted himself well in 2 Grade 1 runs in Ireland against Hurricane Fly, improving to be beaten only 1&1/2 lengths in the Irish Champion, before a heartbreaking loss of life in the Champion Hurdle as a 5yo.

I wouldn’t be backing Goshen at 6/1 though (and am fortunate to have backed him at 40/1 and 33/1).

If I was backing now, it would be Saint Roi, and he could easily be Willie Mullins best chance. JP could have two live ones with him and Epatante next year, if not more than those two.

[TigerRolllllll]

Goshen would have won for sure but he wouldn't have had the shoe incident had he not walked through the final hurdle. It's an open question about why he walked through the final hurdle but it's certainly a defensible position that he slowed down approaching it. Maybe he was tiring, maybe Moore gave him the wrong signals. Again, not a single figure price bet as it stands.

What is crazy is the price.......not that different to Epatante, who ran over 170 (with allowance) and only had a few runs, so likely to improve.....and runs / jumps like a proper Champion Hurdler

No value for me in any of short ones now, but if we have some sort of a season, then Epatante will def be in my 10 to follow comps and will back in doubles, etc

Not sure about any of the others yet......and if fit, expect Epatante to repeat

[Eggs]

....one I’ll be interested to see in ‘any race’ market is Diol Ker, but I’ve not seen it listed yet.

33-1 Paddy Power for RSA (with cash-out) is a bit of a stand out given it’s as low as 16-1 elsewhere. I suppose NH Chase could be another target, I know a few on here like it.

[Istabraq]

One I’m definitely keen on too Eggs.
Meade been silent but the fact he declared 2 weeks before Cheltenham suggests the horses minor issue(s) only....

[Faugheen_Machine]

Not sure if this has already been mentioned, I can't see it anywhere, but Unibet seem to have gone 1/4 odds for all Cheltenham races.

Actually seems to be selected races.

[Birds Nest]

Not sure if this has already been mentioned, I can't see it anywhere, but Unibet seem to have gone 1/4 odds for all Cheltenham races.

Actually seems to be selected races.

Spotted that too....lisnagar oscar 25s with em seems very generous...

[Istabraq]

Unibet seem to have gone 1/4 odds for all Cheltenham races.

As was always the case in the past...

[Kevloaf]

Spotted that too....lisnagar oscar 25s with em seems very generous...

Can't go wrong backing previous winners each way.

Not got the up to date figures but it's a profitable angle, for every year I ever checked.

[Faugheen_Machine]

As was always the case in the past...

Yeh, until very recently. Riders onthe Storm is 33s with 1/4 odds in Ryanair, which I think is very fair.

[The Don]

Was any reason given for Hazel Hills late withdrawal?