Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[Kevloaf]

Value is what you feel about a horse relative to the potential opposition. My view is that he doesn't have as much in hand (if anything) as the markets suggest.

If the novice chase career goes pear-shaped or he stays over hurdles then effectively there won't be a price.

At the moment it is also guesswork as to his optimum trip. He might not get three miles. The big plus is that he travels and seems to find off the bridle. That's done the trick so far but he might just come up against a better one.

What price would you have him and consider it a fair price for the Marsh?

I'd back him now at 10/1 without much deliberation but partly because I feel like I know I'd be beating SP considerably.



I imagine he'll be aimed at the Flogas over 2m6f and then that result/performance/opposition/yard options will all come into play.


I do think he has enough in hand over anything else at the moment. Shishkin was too close to Abacadabras for me to think he's up at EA's level, but a fence is a leveller as we all know.... going chasing may bring about a whole load of improvement for some horses and Envoi Allen could plateau as he's been a Grade 1 performer for two years already.... which isn't that common!

[Nortons who]

Aren't we all agreeing then that its probably better to back others in the Marsh and RSA for now and if EA turns up make a decision nearer the time as to whether to lump on him or not. A number on here have said I'm not going to back EA now when his target race is unknown. Sounds like good advice at the moment.

[Quevega]

What price would you have him and consider it a fair price for the Marsh?

I'd back him now at 10/1 without much deliberation but partly because I feel like I know I'd be beating SP considerably.



I imagine he'll be aimed at the Flogas over 2m6f and then that result/performance/opposition/yard options will all come into play.


I do think he has enough in hand over anything else at the moment. Shishkin was too close to Abacadabras for me to think he's up at EA's level, but a fence is a leveller as we all know.... going chasing may bring about a whole load of improvement for some horses and Envoi Allen could plateau as he's been a Grade 1 performer for two years already.... which isn't that common!

I'd love to see Envoi Allen tackle the arkle, like the true great horses would.
The 13 fences would suit if he;s as good a fencer as hurdler.
14-1 ain't a bad price with cashout and if it comes up soft on the Tuesday and Shishkin hasn't looked great you never know.
Be interesting if Elliott nominates a target at some stage.
The Marsh does look the obvious race.
But I do like the Arkle - Gold cup route myself. Lot more glamorous.

And the trip is not really relevant to Envoi Allen as a novice chaser I reckon, unless there's another superstar in the ranks in opposition (so Shishkin's early season stuff may be a pointer)

[kinloch brae]

What price would you have him and consider it a fair price for the Marsh?

I'd back him now at 10/1 without much deliberation but partly because I feel like I know I'd be beating SP considerably.



I imagine he'll be aimed at the Flogas over 2m6f and then that result/performance/opposition/yard options will all come into play.


I do think he has enough in hand over anything else at the moment. Shishkin was too close to Abacadabras for me to think he's up at EA's level, but a fence is a leveller as we all know.... going chasing may bring about a whole load of improvement for some horses and Envoi Allen could plateau as he's been a Grade 1 performer for two years already.... which isn't that common!

Yes, I would probably take 10/1 but the reality is that he is only 6/1 in a place.

I think you are being a bit hard on Shishkin. Didn't think so beforehand but I have a feeling that the Supreme was a much better race than the Ballymore. I would have Shishkin at least as far in front of Abacadabras as Envoi Allen was in the Royal Bond.

[Kevloaf]

Yes, I would probably take 10/1 but the reality is that he is only 6/1 in a place.

I think you are being a bit hard on Shishkin. Didn't think so beforehand but I have a feeling that the Supreme was a much better race than the Ballymore. I would have Shishkin at least as far in front of Abacadabras as Envoi Allen was in the Royal Bond.

Yeah, perhaps. Time will tell on that. I haven't even watched the Supreme back yet to really delve into it.

I think the scenario of them all avoiding each other is going to play out so it'll be hard to piece together the Supreme form....

Sporting John flopping didn't and won't help going forward either really.





Out of interest, where do people think Goshen would have ranked in this years Supreme?

[Kevloaf]

I'd love to see Envoi Allen tackle the arkle, like the true great horses would.
The 13 fences would suit if he;s as good a fencer as hurdler.
14-1 ain't a bad price with cashout and if it comes up soft on the Tuesday and Shishkin hasn't looked great you never know.
Be interesting if Elliott nominates a target at some stage.
The Marsh does look the obvious race.
But I do like the Arkle - Gold cup route myself. Lot more glamorous.

And the trip is not really relevant to Envoi Allen as a novice chaser I reckon, unless there's another superstar in the ranks in opposition (so Shishkin's early season stuff may be a pointer)

Yep, feasible but the creation of the Marsh means that Arkle-Gold Cup route will be rarer moving forwards. The lure of the Arkle isn't really there for Gordon? He's just happy to have the winners...



My personal preference would be to scrap the 2.3f Marsh and force Envoi Allen to clash with the best 2 milers or best 3 milers.

If his optimum ends up the intermediate trip, so be it, we'll see how good he is at all the other festivals throughout the years.



I'd back Envoi Allen to beat Shishkin over any trip, and distance right now if they were evens the pair..... not with great gusto, just think he's a bit better.

[Saxon Warrior]

Out of interest, where do people think Goshen would have ranked in this years Supreme?

To put the two Supreme horses in order first, Aba had a much better run through the Asterion Forlonge fiasco than Shishkin, who was badly stopped two out behind Captain Guinness.
Granted an equal run I would see Shishkin at least a 3 lengths Supreme winner, with the other finishers the 11 lengths-plus further behind Aba that they finished in the race. (Quite possibly Captain Guinness and Elixir Dainay somewhere between Aba and the rest, in that 11 length gap).

That would give Shishkin a higher rating than his current 159, maybe 162, if Aba was left on 158.

Goshen would have won the Triumph by 10 lengths at least, maybe 15. I would have him above Aba, and maybe only a 1lb or 2 below Shishkin.

I am currently less clear of Shishkin and Goshen's ceilings than we are Aba's. All are potential Champion Hurdlers, if connections wanted them to be, and only because we didnt get to see Goshen after the last at the Festival, I would currently rate them.

1. Shishkin
2. Goshen
3. Abacadabras

Only Epatante could stop these, IMHO, on what we saw from the Champion Hurdlers this season.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Aren't we all agreeing then that its probably better to back others in the Marsh and RSA for now and if EA turns up make a decision nearer the time as to whether to lump on him or not. A number on here have said I'm not going to back EA now when his target race is unknown. Sounds like good advice at the moment.

I think in this case it's best to keep it simple. EA will not be a bigger price than he is now at any point in the season, imo.

I don't understand why you'd put him in a multiple if you consider him bad value? Multiplying bad value with another selection surely gives you even worse value......or is my logic flawed?

[kinloch brae]

To put the two Supreme horses in order first, Aba had a much better run through the Asterion Forlonge fiasco than Shishkin, who was badly stopped two out behind Captain Guinness.
Granted an equal run I would see Shishkin at least a 3 lengths Supreme winner, with the other finishers the 11 lengths-plus further behind Aba that they finished in the race. (Quite possibly Captain Guinness and Elixir Dainay somewhere between Aba and the rest, in that 11 length gap).

That would give Shishkin a higher rating than his current 159, maybe 162, if Aba was left on 158.

Goshen would have won the Triumph by 10 lengths at least, maybe 15. I would have him above Aba, and maybe only a 1lb or 2 below Shishkin.

I am currently less clear of Shishkin and Goshen's ceilings than we are Aba's. All are potential Champion Hurdlers, if connections wanted them to be, and only because we didnt get to see Goshen after the last at the Festival, I would currently rate them.

1. Shishkin
2. Goshen
3. Abacadabras

Only Epatante could stop these, IMHO, on what we saw from the Champion Hurdlers this season.

I would agree with that. It is also possible that Abacadabras was better in the Supreme than the Royal Bond. If you add Envoi Allen to the four mentioned then I think the Champion Hurdle winner is in there somewhere but at least two could be going elsewhere.

[Istabraq]

Fair summary that SW which makes this bet very good value:

Shishkin (Arkle) Abacadabras (champ hurdle) Envoi Allen (any) all to win 200/1

[Kevloaf]

Fair summary that SW which makes this bet very good value:

Shishkin (Arkle) Abacadabras (champ hurdle) Envoi Allen (any) all to win 200/1

Now 175/1 I think

[Istabraq]

Chance for some easy price pushes, several minor football leagues continue as well as a number of friendlies that tend to end up 6-4.
I’ve permed Fakir and PTKO with a couple of games that push these to 43/1 and 35/1
Not everyone’s strategy but can be a nice price push...

[Nortons who]

I think in this case it's best to keep it simple. EA will not be a bigger price than he is now at any point in the season, imo.

I don't understand why you'd put him in a multiple if you consider him bad value? Multiplying bad value with another selection surely gives you even worse value......or is my logic flawed?

It will be interesting to see if others have a similar view.

So as to the question why I'm prepared to back Envoi Allen in multiples but not in single Win bets, the answer is based on my perception of risk versus reward and likely overall return.

All of my single Win bet stakes and Win double stakes are geared to return 20 points.

I have already said that because EAs target race is unclear then I wouldn't back him now for either the RSA or Marsh at circa 7-1 / 6-1 because if I pick the wrong race then I wouldn't even get a run for my money. To cover both races to return 20 points would require me to stake say 1 x 2.75 points* + 1 x 2.5 points = 5.25* points. So on that basis I might as well bet 5.5 points for EA to Win ANY race at 5-2, thereby also covering off the risk of him going for the CH or the GC.*

However, using the Archie rule if the odds of EA turning up in March are around Evens, then 5-2 becomes 5-4, which in my opinion is a lower SP than EA would be on the day, hence my decion not to back him now as a single Win bet.

My rationale for including EA in Win doubles now,* is that for the same outlay (slightly less actually of 4.5 points) I can still recognise the huge potential of EA but in a way that could significantly increase my returns should he win. It's similar to hitting the gamble winnings button on a slot machine, with the chance that I end up with nothing even if he wins but my logic here is as follows:

# If he does not make it to the festival then all stakes bet are losing ones unless cashed out in time.
# If I pick the wrong race then as above.
# If I back him to Win ANY race and he wins then my returns are 20 points.
# if I back him to Win and he doesn't then all stakes are losers.

My favoured approach is to back him in the following Win doubles. Although this has a much lower chance overall of returning 20 points than a single Win bet on EA, collectivley they have potential to return far more at odds which would not be available in March.

These are the 9 x WIn doubles I have covered for 4.5 points in total to return 20 points per win double:

# EA RSA / Shishkin ANY
# EA Marsh / Shishkin ANY
# EA ANY / Shishkin ANY
# EA ANY / Pic d'Orhy ANY
# EA ANY / The Big Getaway ANY
# EA ANY / Malone Road ANY
# EA ANY / Your Darling ANY
# EA ANY / Monkfish ANY
# EA ANY / Rayapour* ANY

Currently I would rather have these 9 WIn doubles on side than one single Win ANY race bet on EA. If EA doesn't* turn up then its roughly the same outcome. If he loses it's the same outcome. I'm just gambling and admittedly also risking his Win potential now by doubling up in advance.* Worst case is that EA wins and the others are no shows or losers but personally I would rather have the upside potential.

In my opinion Shishkin looks a strong candidate for the Arkle, The Big Getaway and Monkfish showed bags of ability and potential. PicD'Orhy, Your Darling, Malone Road and Rayapour are longer priced selections thrown into the mix.

When push comes to shove, I also have the choice of backing EA in March in his declared race or hedging against him or even* laying him,* particularly if Shishkin wins the Arkle.

Finally its supposed to be fun and in my opinion there is more potential fun to be had in the anticipation of some or all of the above doubles running onto EA.

[Istabraq]

Are those doubles all special requests NW ?
As far as I’m aware you can’t add ‘any race’ winners in multiples, although someone said this can be done in shop (Hills ?) using one selection.
I’m intrigued if you can perm ‘any’ ....

[Craigy14]

Are those doubles all special requests NW ?
As far as I’m aware you can’t add ‘any race’ winners in multiples, although someone said this can be done in shop (Hills ?) using one selection.
I’m intrigued if you can perm ‘any’ ....

Hills seems to let you do it online in the any race A-F category Ista and that’s with any other category of any race or if choosing an actual race as well. Doubles trebles etc.