Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[Saxon Warrior]

Looks like Timeform think the Novice Hurdlers and Goshen can immediately make the step into Champion Hurdle trials.

Maybe only Epatante left to stop them

HURDLERS
163 SHARJAH
161p EPATANTE
161p GOSHEN
160p ENVOI ALLEN
160 HONEYSUCKLE
159p SHISHKIN
159 BUVEUR D'AIR
158 ABACADABRAS
157 DARVER STAR
156 CILAOS EMERY
156 SALDIER

[kinloch brae]

Looks like Timeform think the Novice Hurdlers and Goshen can immediately make the step into Champion Hurdle trials.

Maybe only Epatante left to stop them

HURDLERS
163 SHARJAH
161p EPATANTE
161p GOSHEN
160p ENVOI ALLEN
160 HONEYSUCKLE
159p SHISHKIN
159 BUVEUR D'AIR
157 DARVER STAR
156 CILAOS EMERY
156 SALDIER

They couldn't rate the Champion Hurdle as anything other than average. Darver Star the one they could use to link the novice form. I assume they have given Shiskin extra for a rough passage as Abacadabras isn't on the list? Not so easy to put a figure on Goshen.

[Pendil]

Guilty as charged - Champ - 10-1 Gold cup .
- Top of the game - 25-1 Gold cup.
about 15 minutes after A.B.P crossed the line !! , I know , sad isn't it !!

They couldn't rate the Champion Hurdle as anything other than average. Darver Star the one they could use to link the novice form. I assume they have given Shiskin extra for a rough passage as Abacadabras isn't on the list? Not so easy to put a figure on Goshen.

Darver Star is 33/1 with Lads for both the Arkle and Marsh. I have backed him @ 35/1 boosted for the Marsh ew

[Saxon Warrior]

ABACADABRAS 158, I deleted by mistake, when taking out the Staters Hurdle lot.

[Geordieboy83]

Elixer D’ainay added to Marsh Market at 33/1 with 365 for those interested

[Altior]

Jaysus that rating on Goshen is horrid.

[The Don]

Elixer D’ainay added to Marsh Market at 33/1 with 365 for those interested

Surely Arkle is his race? Up with the pace throughout and was swinging when he came down

[The Don]

Pauling said Your Darling scoped filthy after Warwick but had done a brilliant bit of work 4 days before the race.

50s for the supreme might be worth some interest.

Flinteur Sacre also interesting but 20s

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Just had Rose of Arcadia added to Hills TWAR market @ 20-1. I was hoping for better but it is what it is. She will probably be targeted at the Mares Novice but I prefer TWAR at this stage. She was impressive on her bumper debut. Owned by Cheveley Park Stud and trained by Tizzard.

[kinloch brae]

Just had Rose of Arcadia added to Hills TWAR market @ 20-1. I was hoping for better but it is what it is. She will probably be targeted at the Mares Novice but I prefer TWAR at this stage. She was impressive on her bumper debut. Owned by Cheveley Park Stud and trained by Tizzard.

Just in comparison Marie's Rock was available at 25/1 for the Mare's Novice having won a bumper and a novice hurdle. Although Rose Of Arcadia won that bumper nicely she had the run of the race and it was probably an ordinary race. Her two wins have come on heavy ground with forcing tactics and I suspect she is going to want 2m4f+. It is the family of Suny Bay.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Surely Arkle is his race? Up with the pace throughout and was swinging when he came down

That was easily the worst ride of the festival. I like Walsh but he had a serious brain fade in the Supreme.

[Eggs]

Pauling said Your Darling scoped filthy after Warwick but had done a brilliant bit of work 4 days before the race.

50s for the supreme might be worth some interest.

Flinteur Sacre also interesting but 20s

...in an article I posted last week, Pauling said Your Darling ‘could be anything’. 27-1 with boost in Hills any race market.

[Eggs]

....Declan Rix from ATR suggests Sharjah is overpriced @ 33-1 for next years Champion Hurdle (just 14-1 with Bet365);

https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/declan-rix

[nortonscoin200]

There's been a fair bit of interest in Fakir D'oudairies prospects for the Festival next year. My opinion is that his best chance of victory is if he's stepped up in trip and I've backed him accordingly at 50-1 for the Gold Cup and 36.7-1 with odds boost for the Ryanair - with a 14-1 saver on TWAR. I don't think he's quite got the raw speed to win a Champion Chase - but a high cruising speed combined with (fingers crossed) staying power could makehim a big player over further than the minimum trip.

I bored you silly with a lengthy piece in this thread (post 143) on how runners up in the Arkle have next season gone on to win 3 of the last 16 Gold Cups.

As part of that little investigation I traced the subsequent Cheltenham Festival form of every runner-up in the Arkle over the last decade.


Here are the results:

2010 SOMERSBY second to Sizing Europe in the Arkle.
2011 Finished 5th in the Champion Chase
2012 7th in the Ryanair
2013 Unseated in the Champion Chase
2014 2nd in the Champion Chase
2015 2nd in the Champion Chase
2016 5th in the Champion Chase

2011 FINIAN'S RAINBOW second to Captain Chris in the Arkle
2012 Won Champion Chase on what proved his final Festival race

2012 CUE CARD second to Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle
2013 Won the Ryanair
2016 Fell 3 out in the Gold Cup when travelling well
2017 Fell again in the Gold Cup
2018 Pulled up in the Ryanair

2013 BAILY GREEN 33-1 second to Simonsig in the Arkle
2014 3 lengths off the pace in 4th when fell 4 out in the Champion Chase
2016 Unplaced in the Brown Advisory

2014 CHAMPAGNE FEVER beaten a head by Western Warhorse in the Arkle.
Never ran at the Festival again.

2015 GOD'S OWN 33-1 2nd to Un De Sceaux in the Arkle
2016 4th in the Champion Chase
2017 5th in the Champion Chase
2018 3rd in the Champion Chase
2019 Pulled up in the Champion Chase

2016 SIZING JOHN 2nd to Douvan in the Arkle
2017 Won the Gold Cup - not appeared at the Festival since.

2017 CLOUDY DREAM 2nd to Altior in the Arkle
2018 3rd in the Ryanair

2018 BRAIN POWER 2nd to Footpad in the Arkle
2019 Pulled up in the Champion Hurdle

2019 US AND THEM 2nd to Duc Des Geneivres in the Arkle
2020 3rd in the Grand Annual

It's difficult to draw firm conclusions on such a small sample but I thought it was interesting to see the different career paths (in terms of race distance) the Arkle runners-up went on to tackle.

Between them they have subsequently contested 21 races at the Festival - notching up 3 victories and five other placed efforts ( 2nd or 3rd).

13 of the races they contested have been over the minimum trip (1 win and 4 places).

5 were over 21/2 miles (1 win, 1 place)

3 were in the Gold Cup(1 win and two falls)

But one fact which suddenly hit me was that all 3 Festival wins came the season after they came second in the Arkle. One in the Champion Chase, one in the Ryanair and 1 in the Gold Cup.

Sure it's small sample but for those of us on Fakir it adds a little bit of cheer to our dreams for next March.

I'd say it's also possible to argue that the two best Arkle runners-up in the last decade were Cue Card and Sizing John and both went on to become Gold Cup horses. Would Cue Card have won the GC but for that fall in 2016 - he was certainly travelling very well and must surely have gone close.

[Kevloaf]

Jaysus that rating on Goshen is horrid.

It's massively inflated, even for juvenile standards.

Is it fair to say Goshen is in danger of becoming the most over rated horse in training?

On what he's achieved.... all we know is he's better than the juvenile crop that by all accounts were naff in Ireland, and Ireland won the Triumph?



It was really hard to not be impressed with Goshen, and he does look special but it's been factored into his rating and price.