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....was thinking of it more as insurance as opposed to an outright option.
If you think Ferny (Supreme) Ballyadam (Ballymore) is the way to go, back it @ odds available, with a small saver on the ‘any race’ double. It could boost your winnings or give you a bit of insurance, not forgetting Ballyadam is also early favourite for the Albert Bartlett.
Also gives you the back up of the handicaps which certain came in handy with BBB a few years ago
Same for me Kev , silly really , I did put a.b.p in a few multi's ,.
and only two weeks out had a single at 4-1.
Given his age , and if willy goes the same route,.
A third , can't be ruled out ..... i.m.o !.
The only thing stopping me getting with ABP is his price, 6/1 about a horse 11 months out who only held on by a fast diminishing neck to an opponent who is certain to re-oppose and who will also face another crop of very good novices (I like all three from the RSA).
He is a worthy favourite but 6/1 (best price) offer zero value, I see betvictor go 4/1, they should have their licence revoked for that...
The only negative I had was history was against him.... which isn't even a thing.
I doubt anybody can pick a hole in Al Boum Photo - it'll just be a case of at the prices whether something will improve past him.
I think there is something in the history/stats angle but it is relative to how horses are campaigned. Willie is going down the low key route and keeping ABP fresh each season, sacrificing Graded races along the way to land the big one. Most other trainers who have tried to defend the crown unsuccessfully, gave their horses full campaigns which I believe counts against them when March comes round again.
The only thing stopping me getting with ABP is his price, 6/1 about a horse 11 months out who only held on by a fast diminishing neck to an opponent who is certain to re-oppose and who will also face another crop of very good novices (I like all three from the RSA).
He is a worthy favourite but 6/1 (best price) offer zero value, I see betvictor go 4/1, they should have their licence revoked for that...
The problem as i see it Istabraq, is that if A.B.P has his one run at Tramore.
The only way the price gets any bigger is if he loses .
If he wins ( as you might expect ?? ) the price is gone.
Although i suppose a "Blistering performance " from another horse ,.
might keep the price reasonable , But as you say , A long way to go.
Tramore is a long way off BC, impressive performances from some of the challengers and you might get some value but the biggest certainty is that you’ll still be able to get 6/1 come Christmas so tying up money now and having the 9 month risk that comes with it isn’t for me.
Game of opinions of course but Thyme Hill and Fakir Doudaries would appear to have firm targets in potentially weak divisions and can be backed at around 20/1 and 25/1 and would for me offer far better value...
Re ABP, I'm considering a similar angle to the year when Thistlecrack was a short priced favourite for the Gold Cup. My approach then was to lay the selection over a period of months on the exchanges, chipping away to get best prices. Then when NRNB becomes available if the selection is still live, hedge a chunk of this back NRNB. In the case of Thistlecrack I made a sizeable profit as picked up the lay profit and had my NRNB stakes refunded. So OK it worked out well in that instance for me but even had he turned up he would still have had to win for me to lose overall. Effectively I was hedging against the field but attempting to gain from a non runner.
Whether ABP odds will contract sufficiently to make this approach worthwhile but currently yiu can lay him on the Exchanges for circa 7-1. Does that fulfill the Archie criteria of being likely to run and the odds on the day. If the main protagonists expected also make the race then whatvprice would ABP go off, wouldche be longer or shorter than 100-30 of 2 weeks ago?
A long winded way of saying that's why I haven't backed ABP in anything other than a few doubles, as potential cover. If he turns up and is 2-1 or 3-1 I doubt I would back him but applaud if he wins. Looking back I'm consistent in this respect as didnt have anything on Best Mate or Kauto Star for any of their GC wins. Those were lean years admittedly...
In general my main success with the Gold Cup over the past 30 years has been with winners backed in the 10-1 to 15-1 range ante post.
As per my username I'm still waiting for the next Nortons Coin, there will be another outsider to win this eventually. Real Steel was giving me a good run for a few cents this year until the gas ran out.
Has there been an announcement about the Mares Chase distance?
I’m quite tempted to back BDD for the stayers but this chase puts a bit more doubt on her particpation
Im pretty sure I read a few years ago that the Riccis, especially Mrs that they don`t like to revert their good mares back to fences. She said they are too precious to her! Not sure how many chasing mares they have had but Vroum Vroum never went back over fences. Benie will be 10 so I definitely don`t think they will. a free run in the Mares hurdle all day imo as Honeysuckle will be going chasing as this has always been the plan I think? HdB once said she is racing over hurdles this season then go for the mares chase next season.
Tramore is a long way off BC, impressive performances from some of the challengers and you might get some value but the biggest certainty is that you’ll still be able to get 6/1 come Christmas so tying up money now and having the 9 month risk that comes with it isn’t for me.
Game of opinions of course but Thyme Hill and Fakir Doudaries would appear to have firm targets in potentially weak divisions and can be backed at around 20/1 and 25/1 and would for me offer far better value...
Tramore is a long way off BC, impressive performances from some of the challengers and you might get some value but the biggest certainty is that you’ll still be able to get 6/1 come Christmas so tying up money now and having the 9 month risk that comes with it isn’t for me.
Game of opinions of course but Thyme Hill and Fakir Doudaries would appear to have firm targets in potentially weak divisions and can be backed at around 20/1 and 25/1 and would for me offer far better value...
Are they firm targets when Thyme Hill was schooling over fences the other day, and many believe Fakir would be better upped in trip?
Are they firm targets when Thyme Hill was schooling over fences the other day, and many believe Fakir would be better upped in trip?
I hadn’t heard that, I’d based my view on the comments Hobbs made in the AB aftermath.
As for Fakir I’d be shocked if he stepped up given JP has Defi, unless connections believe one of them will be a Gold Cup horse next year I’d expect the champion chase and Ryanair to be the two targets and given Defi’s proven stamina I’ve assumed he will return to the longer trip
Are they firm targets when Thyme Hill was schooling over fences the other day, and many believe Fakir would be better upped in trip?
I assume we are talking Champion Chase? I would just ask the question if you are beaten fair and square in what looked an ordinary Arkle where do you find the improvement, particularly as he has shown a reasonable level from the start? I wouldn't even back him to reverse the form with Put The Kettle On.
I hadn’t heard that, I’d based my view on the comments Hobbs made in the AB aftermath.
As for Fakir I’d be shocked if he stepped up given JP has Defi, unless connections believe one of them will be a Gold Cup horse next year I’d expect the champion chase and Ryanair to be the two targets and given Defi’s proven stamina I’ve assumed he will return to the longer trip
As someone who backed Defi for Ryanair last year and see this as an ideal trip for him, I think there's a long way to go before the Ryanair becomes a target. I know there should be the 10 year old Altior to deal with, but should he mop up the 2m Graded races again, could he not end up heading Champion Chase again?
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