Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[BigChaang]

We'll never know for sure..,But Willoughby Court - R.i.P .
Won a Ballymore novice hurdle , ( o.k. Neptune ).
And a Ladbrokes Novice chase at newbury - grade 1,.
along with 3rd place in the dipper novices chase at Cheltenham ,.
Sadly the last run for Willoughby Court.

[Kevloaf]

We'll never know for sure..,But Willoughby Court - R.i.P .
Won a Ballymore novice hurdle , ( o.k. Neptune ).
And a Ladbrokes Novice chase at newbury - grade 1,.
along with 3rd place in the dipper novices chase at Cheltenham ,.
Sadly the last run for Willoughby Court.

Ah yes, good memory. He'd certainly have been up there in the conversation.

I backed him for the Ryanair, remember spending ages making the case on here

[BigChaang]

I remember Kev , around the time i joined F.J.
and i'm sure i backed him for the Ryanair too .

[jackh50]

Who would be the best chaser Ben Pauling has ever had so far? Kildisart?


I hate that line from trainers, as if it means anything at all.



Nothing wrong with 50/1 pokes in general, just seems very early when the target isn't certain (trainer mentioned two distances) and the trainer doesn't have the credentials to back up the claims. His best ever horse so far hasn't been good enough to win at the festival (Barters Hill?) so while I'm not knocking a 50/1 bet, I am just pointing out that just because something is a big price doesn't mean it's value.

Whilst Ben Pauling doesn’t have a great festival record I think there are signs in the last couple of years that he can get the horses in top shape for the festival. Kildisart has run very well the last 2 years, the ballymore form from last year has worked out pretty well city island excluded and global citizen ran a very good race in the Arkle this year.

Bright forecast got within 2 1/4 lengths of this year’s RSA winner staying on and on that evidence would suit a step up in trip, obviously the target isn’t certain and I would want that confirmed as well as the horse’s health before placing a bet just like yourself as the cash out option isn’t failsafe, however the trainer wouldn’t put me off of the racecourse evidence in this case.

Nico nominated bright forecast as the horse he was most looking forward to riding last year as well, although not sure you can put much weight on that...

[YoungHustler]

Who would be the best chaser Ben Pauling has ever had so far? Kildisart?


I hate that line from trainers, as if it means anything at all.



Nothing wrong with 50/1 pokes in general, just seems very early when the target isn't certain (trainer mentioned two distances) and the trainer doesn't have the credentials to back up the claims. His best ever horse so far hasn't been good enough to win at the festival (Barters Hill?) so while I'm not knocking a 50/1 bet, I am just pointing out that just because something is a big price doesn't mean it's value.

Yep, Willoughby would have been his best horse who did win at Cheltenham(although not a chase). Kildisart isn't a bad horse and was behind Defi and Lostintranslation over an inadequate trip last year who I think are very good horses. I don't actually know, but I'd like to think that Pauling would rate Bright Forecast much better than Kildisart.
I agree that trainers talk a lot of shit most of the time and I'm not naive enough to believe everything that is said but I have found Pauling to be quite informative when giving updates about his horses. Regarding Bright Forecast's target, I've read quite a few times how he will relish the step up in trip. Again could be shit trainer talk but judging by how he was finishing in the Ballymore, I would tend to agree he will be aimed at 3m.
Regarding Paulings' credentials, I don't claim to know all his stats but he has had 2 festival winners(probably more placed) in 6/7 seasons from probably a small pool of runners so I don't think that is too bad for a small yard.
Regarding value, it depends on your own opinion. Obviously you don't think 50 is value but other people might.

[Faugheen_Machine]

What were the injuries suffered by CoF, Bright Forecast and Dickie Diver?

I'm seriously considering swerving any horse that missed this year's festival through injury, until NRNB is available.

I can't think of any horses winning this year that were coming back from injury. Samcro probably the nearest.

[Istabraq]

I can't think of any horses winning this year that were coming back from injury. Samcro probably the nearest.

I assume Put the Kettle On had some some of setback to have been off the track for so long ?

[archie]

I assume Put the Kettle On had some some of setback to have been off the track for so long ?

I believe they thought that deep winter ground wouldn't suit and she had been on the go all summer.

[Bonjers]

What were the injuries suffered by CoF, Bright Forecast and Dickie Diver?

I'm seriously considering swerving any horse that missed this year's festival through injury, until NRNB is available.

I can't think of any horses winning this year that were coming back from injury. Samcro probably the nearest.

Bright Forecast was a heart issue I think.

COF did a leg and I'm not sure anything was ever really said about Dickie, just that he wasn't right in one of Hendo's blogs.

[Saxon Warrior]

I assume Put the Kettle On had some some of setback to have been off the track for so long ?

Yes, HdB ran her through the summer to get chasing experience, then left her over the winter, for the Festival. She couldn’t have looked any better, for the break.

[BigChaang]

And with form figures - 1,1,1,1,2,1,1, Put the Kettle on should be one to take note of.
I do remember the syndicate leader being interviewed after the cheltenham race,.
in November. , Saying we will come back in march for the Arkle .
After the interviewer mentioned a handicap race maybe .

[BigChaang]

Something to Think about ..... Al Boum Photo .
Is Three gold cups in a row a Possibility ??.

[billymag]

What were the injuries suffered by CoF, Bright Forecast and Dickie Diver?

I'm seriously considering swerving any horse that missed this year's festival through injury, until NRNB is available.

I can't think of any horses winning this year that were coming back from injury. Samcro probably the nearest.

A little mare called Honeysuckle would fit that bill I think

[Kevloaf]

Something to Think about ..... Al Boum Photo .
Is Three gold cups in a row a Possibility ??.

For sure.


The only negative I had was history was against him.... which isn't even a thing.

I doubt anybody can pick a hole in Al Boum Photo - it'll just be a case of at the prices whether something will improve past him.

[BigChaang]

For sure.


The only negative I had was history was against him.... which isn't even a thing.

.

Same for me Kev , silly really , I did put a.b.p in a few multi's ,.
and only two weeks out had a single at 4-1.
Given his age , and if willy goes the same route,.
A third , can't be ruled out ..... i.m.o !.