Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[FaugheenTheMachine]

The sales thread sounds a great idea (if the sales go ahead)

[Ray]

Envoi allen & goshen any race dounle 16/1

[Istabraq]

Envoi allen & goshen any race dounle 16/1

I saw this and was tempted but I couldn't rule out a Champion Hurdle bid from Envoi Allen and Goshen is certain to target that race...

[Eggs]

Envoi allen & goshen any race dounle 16/1

....you also have to factor in two horses being well enough to turn up in 12 months time. The Envoi/Samcro @ 75-1 was tempting this time last year, not sure 16-1 is.

[archie]

20/1 looks fair enough but using the 'archie index' he would have to be about 4/1 on the day to make that value right now.

The 'archie index' would have it just this side of certifiable taking a single figure price about anything this far out. By extension, a double would have to be at least 100/1.

[Saxon Warrior]

Asked 365 to add UHTRED to their Supreme Novice Hurdle market.

They have responded and added today at the best current price in the market of 40/1.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Asked 365 to add UHTRED to their Supreme Novice Hurdle market.

They have responded and added today at the best current price in the market of 40/1.

Thanks very much SW.

[lethalsteps]

Asked 365 to add UHTRED to their Supreme Novice Hurdle market.

They have responded and added today at the best current price in the market of 40/1.

Do you think that's worth getting on this far out?

[nortonscoin200]

I'm intrigued by the link between horses who finish second in the Arkle and go on to win the following season's Gold Cup.

It worked well for me in 2005 when Kicking King won the big one after being beaten by Well Chief in the Arkle the previous season.

And it paid dividends again in 2017 when Sizing John won the GC after finishing second to his nemesis Douvan in the Arkle a year earlier.

This set me thinking: how many other Gold Cup victors graduated from the Arkle in recent years.

Step forward War of Attrition who won the 2006 Gold Cup after finishing 14 lengths behind Contraband in the previous year's Arkle.

All three of those Gold Cup winners had another strong form-line in common - they all finished in the frame in the Supreme the season before they tackled the Arkle.

War of Attrition was beaten a neck by Brave Inca, Kicking King was second to Back in Front and Sizing John was third to old pal Douvan.

So with three of the last 16 Gold Cup winners finishing in the frame in the Supreme, running well in the Arkle (2 runners up and a 7th) and then graduating straight to Gold Cup glory - it begs the question where does this leave Fakir D'oudairies.

He was fourth to Klassical Dream in the Supreme last year - beaten 11 lengths on his third start for Joseph O'B - and ran a cracker before going down narrowly to Put The Kettle On after a costly error at the second last in the Arkle last week.

This horse is pretty amazing.

He's only due to celebrate his fifth birthday on April 11.

Since joining Joseph he's contested six Grade 1's - finishing runner-up in four of them, beaten less than three lengths on each occasion. The others were the Supreme and arguably his best performance which came in the Drinmore at Fairyhouse in December - the only time in his career Fakir has tackled 2m 4f - when he romped home by 19 lengths from Ronald Pump after Samcro crashed out at the second last when they were neck and neck. Would Fakir have won if Samcros had stood up? Hard to tell but he galloped on and showed no sign of stopping.

So where does Joseph go with him next season - that's a tricky one. He was entered in the two miler and the 2m 4f Flogas Chase at the Dublin RF but didn't rock up because of the ground. Joseph said before the meeting that Fakir was versatile and he wouldn't mind putting him back up to 2m 4f.

He's best price 25-1 for the Champion Chase, 33-1 for the Ryanair and 50-1 for the Gold Cup with bet365. The best I can find to win any race is 14s.

I found it interesting to see the route Kicking King, War of Attrition and Sizing John took to the Gold Cup.

Kicking King kicked off his career with 2 bumpers (finished 1 and 3). He then ran in 5 hurdle races (12112) with three of those over the minimum trip and a solitary outing over 2m 4f where he was second to Solerina. He won the other hurdle race over 2m 2f.

All four of his chase starts before the Arkle (5F11) were over two miles. He was stepped up to 3m for the first time the following season in the Grand 1 against Beef or Salmon in November. I backed him at 33-1 for the GC on the strength of that performance. His only other subsequent tilt at 3m before the GC was the King George which he won.

Sizing John also began his career in two bumpers (64) and ran 5 times over hurdles (12132) where he was beaten three times by Douvan. His three novice chases before the Arkle were all 2m/2m 1f and he only tackled 3m for the first time when he won the Irish Gold Cup a month before his big day at Cheltenham. But to my mind he always looked like a stayer.

War of Attrition fell in a point-to-point and then ran five times over hurdles before he was second to Brave Inca in the Supreme. He won 2 of the prep races and finished last beaten 44 lengths the only time he tried 2m 4f.

He won his novice chase debut which was over 2m 6f - but then reverted to the minimum trip for the rest of the campaign. His first try at 3m over fences came in the Lexus the following season where he was beaten 4l by Beef or Salmon - three months later WoA won the Gold Cup.

So on the plus side you have to say Fakir D'oudairies has a pretty similar career profile to KK, WoA and SJ who made the transition from top notch Cheltenham Festival two miler to Gold Cup winner.

On the minus side he probably races a bit keener than you'd like in a GC contender.

And not many six-year-olds have won the big one - Long Run was the last, Mill House did it in 1963, Mount Tremblant in 1952 and the great Golden Miller won the second of his five GCs on the trot in 1933.

One of the very few positives of the rest of the season being scrapped in Ireland and England would be that Fakir would be able to have a good rest and strengthen up for the challenges ahead.

Wherever he runs at the Festival next season he'll be in with a shout - and after prattling on for so long (apologies to anyone who's got this far) I felt honour-bound to have a little GC dabble at 50s with B365 and a Ryanair tickle at nearly 37-1 with WH bet boost.

[jonthehammer]

Price discrepancy on Sky for Gypsy Island. She is 9/1 on Requestabet for the Mares but 12/1 on the any race market.

[JackieMoon33]

Thanks very much SW.

Don’t be taking that all!

Uhtred Supreme and Farouk D’alene Ballymore double is going to be my starting point. Will likely add one more for the treble.

[darlojim]

Do we think Buveur Dair will race again? 25s currently best price

[Istabraq]

Do we think Buveur Dair will race again? 25s currently best price

I expect he’ll race again but there’s a chance the next generation of champion hurdlers will be decent.
Klassical Dream and Saldier both had their seasons cut short with injury and if Goshen learns to jump the last as he did the previous 7 he looks to be a serious challenger to the crown, throw in an Envoi Allen, Honeysuckle and Shiskin should they choose this path and it looks a better race than it has for a while...

[Kevloaf]

Do you think that's worth getting on this far out?

I know you didn't ask me, but my opinion is....

Yes, as long as you have a cashout facility and are on here often enough to hear about injury news.

[Kevloaf]

Do we think Buveur Dair will race again? 25s currently best price

Yeah he'll definitely race again unless he picks up another injury?


It's a fair enough price....but it'll be 25/1 probably still in August so perhaps not one to take now?

Or at least wait for a positive update and take slightly shorter.


I don't expect Honeysuckle, Envoi Allen or Shishkin to run here.... Abacadabras I do, so 10/1 versus 25/1 based on their achievements makes some appeal but I do think the entire crop of novices were very good so he'll probably be too old to win one now