Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[somer1]

I didn't ask if he was doing a diary, reread who posts what and try again!

I didnt say you did.Whats your problem T.O.T.M.?

[Outlaw]

I didnt say you did.Whats your problem T.O.T.M.?

You've clearly misinterpreted my comments,i'll try and help you out...My original comment was in reference to your query, why would any individual be concerned about posting with a potential fear of copying etc.All bar you took that as it was implied and either agreed, or acknowledged discussions run the risk of a price being clipped while in the open air and not placing a bet beforehand. You've since replied to my last two posts directly mentioning a users name that i haven't brought up!

[Saxon Warrior]

You think she's a good thing SW?

Certainly been impressive enough over the larger obstacles to date.

I'd never say anything is a good thing this far out, but I really like the profile and runs of Elimay.

* Mares Chase announced for March 2021 before last season started (Aug 18)
* I expected any trainer targeting the race to campaign their Mares over fences last season, as a novice, to have plenty of practice before March 2021 race
* WPM the King of the Mares put Elimay (JPMcManus) over fences last season, over 2M1F and 2M4F for two comfortable runs - I dont see him with anything better that went Novice Chasing after the Mares Chase was announced.
* Her best form is over 2M4F for fences and hurdles
* The runners up in the 2 Chases Elimay won went on to RPRs of 144 by season end. Elimay beat them well and could easily be a mid-150s RPR mare on that basis.
* Racing Post quotes suggest JP bought her for fences, and she did have very good Graded hurdles form.
* Elimay is an experienced 6yo with an improving profile.

10/1 is the minimum I would consider antepost pre-season, and is a fair price for her.

Honeysuckle could come here, but if she doesn't Elimay would have a strong chance, IMHO.

[Priceiskey]

You've clearly misinterpreted my comments,i'll try and help you out...My original comment was in reference to your query, why would any individual be concerned about posting with a potential fear of copying etc.All bar you took that as it was implied and either agreed, or acknowledged discussions run the risk of a price being clipped while in the open air and not placing a bet beforehand. You've since replied to my last two posts directly mentioning a users name that i haven't brought up!

I know what you meant Outlaw. Just been misunderstood, both squash it and move on.

[Priceiskey]

I'd never say anything is a good thing this far out, but I really like the profile and runs of Elimay.

* Mares Chase announced for March 2021 before last season started (Aug 18)
* I expected any trainer targeting the race to campaign their Mares over fences last season, as a novice, to have plenty of practice before March 2021 race
* WPM the King of the Mares put Elimay (JPMcManus) over fences last season, over 2M1F and 2M4F for two comfortable runs - I dont see him with anything better that went Novice Chasing after the Mares Chase was announced.
* Her best form is over 2M4F for fences and hurdles
* The runners up in the 2 Chases Elimay won went on to RPRs of 144 by season end. Elimay beat them well and could easily be a mid-150s RPR mare on that basis.
* Racing Post quotes suggest JP bought her for fences, and she did have very good Graded hurdles form.
* Elimay is an experienced 6yo with an improving profile.

10/1 is the minimum I would consider antepost pre-season, and is a fair price for her.

Honeysuckle could come here, but if she doesn't Elimay would have a strong chance, IMHO.

Agree with you SW. I’d definitely want her on side. Think I’ll just wait and see what they do with Honeysuckle.

[Kevloaf]

I'm very much anticipating one of the 'star mares' to take the race....

If Elimay or Salsaretta (who I would say at 7/1 is the worst priced ante post favourite I've seen in 10 years) are winning this race, it's a complete non event.



The case made above for Elimay is nicely put together, but **** me I'll be disappointed if she's good enough and the one to beat. She's had 2 chase runs. Her first she won potentially as the favourite Sinoria fell and the 2nd a "grade 2" she had to beat Cut The Mustard? Jesus.


Honeysuckle connections will surely be looking at her and Salsaretta as the competition and thinking it's easier than beating Benie Des Dieux again.


On the flip side, if Honeysuckle stays over hurdles, Mullins will surely look at Elimay, Salsaretta and the horde of other mares he has and just know Benie would swot them away and get her back over a fence.






In short, this race will be won by a short priced fav, so I have no interest in the 12/1 for Elimay

[ComplyOrDie]

Was coming on to say pretty much the same Kev.

Great reasoning and write up though SW, but at the prices I wouldn't even entertain a bet on her, probably want 25's minimum myself.

Granted she's probably improved for a fence, but she was a little way behind some of the other mares over hurdles, and feel that may end up to be the case over fences against better opposition than what she has faced to date.

I've backed Laurina so far for it at 33/1, she is what I would call value, despite her performances last season (with excuses). Head to head I'd be over Laurina every day of the week and she's three times the price. Some others I like too but no names from just yet until I am able to get a little on.

[Kevloaf]

Yeah, I've backed Laurina too I forgot.

Now that's incredibly risky BUT you have got that she could be a class above in the locker and 33/1 compensates that.



Like, at 12/1 Elimay, 33/1 Laurina... if they raced against each other, Laurina would go off favourite wouldn't she?



If she got beat that'd be the last straw and she goes on the pile with Yorkhill, but you see my point?





I don't even dislike Elimay, I feel like I'm sticking the boot in on her but it's just more of how 'meh' I feel that she's in the mix.

[Humble Pie]

Playing catch up here

Mares Chase
Like SW’s case but this race as a betting medium is just not on the table for me at all, where’s there any value , what’s going to turn up?
YesI’ve thrown a unit at BDD with cash out option

Of far more interest and something I had overlooked and thanks for bringing to my attention is Burning Victory TWAR @ 13.08 /1 boosted
1.5 units duly laid

[somer1]

I really really like Salsaretta for the Mares Chase. Was one of the 1st bets i placed for next year but done her in a double with a short price double with a horse that won in the US making her about 15/1. But who knows if and where she will run when WPM plays Bingo?

[Lobos]

I really really like Salsaretta for the Mares Chase. Was one of the 1st bets i placed for next year but done her in a double with a short price double with a horse that won in the US making her about 15/1. But who knows if and where she will run when WPM plays Bingo?

Salsaretta is not for me but anyone who wants to back her take note she is a bigger price with Hills TWAR @ 8/1 than she is with any bookie in the Mares Chase itself.

[ComplyOrDie]

I really really like Salsaretta for the Mares Chase. Was one of the 1st bets i placed for next year but done her in a double with a short price double with a horse that won in the US making her about 15/1. But who knows if and where she will run when WPM plays Bingo?

Really like her too somer, my problem is of course the price.

My base line for prices in the mares chase is Honeysuckle, so everything, IMO, should be bigger than her. She's the one with the best hurdle form in the book, beating BDD, whom was largely considering invincible by many associated with the yard, she also has PTP form, hammering Annie MC in the process whom has turned out to be no mug herself.

No horse should be shorter than Honeysuckle in any of the mares divisions, IMO.

Edit: I do realise the 10/1 on offer for Honeysuckle is from PP/Betfair which is probably a sign in its own right.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Would we say Ballyadam will be Gordys Ballymore horse this season (always a good place to start these days!) and if so was there any excuse for his first bumper defeat? Or has Gordy got another one from the bumper ranks that we would have seen unleashed at Punchestown?

[ComplyOrDie]

Would we say Ballyadam will be Gordys Ballymore horse this season (always a good place to start these days!) and if so was there any excuse for his first bumper defeat? Or has Gordy got another one from the bumper ranks that we would have seen unleashed at Punchestown?

Probably not Gordan's Ballymore horse, but likely Cheveley Parks, IMO. Gordon has others like Farouk D'Alene with Gigginstown etc.... As to which ends up as the stables number one is anyones guess right now.

[Vautour]

Would we say Ballyadam will be Gordys Ballymore horse this season (always a good place to start these days!) and if so was there any excuse for his first bumper defeat? Or has Gordy got another one from the bumper ranks that we would have seen unleashed at Punchestown?

From memory, I think they put it down to the ground