Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[Kautostar]

I think it was a bad 1, I remember connections saying it was potentially career ending at the time. Not heard anything since to confirm. Don’t back her unless you hear something positive would be my advice

[The King Pimm]

I think it was a bad 1, I remember connections saying it was potentially career ending at the time. Not heard anything since to confirm. Don’t back her unless you hear something positive would be my advice

Thanks Kauto, I just read up in it, she’s recovering from surgery and it’s still unsure if she will race again.

[Willdunn99]

Aah right, that would make sense given the price. I’m guessing it was the result of her fall. Any idea how bad the injury was to Marie Banrigh?

Hock injury,

I think on racing TV it was reported her Career was in doubt, and Harry Skelton admitted there’s no guarantee she’ll race again.

Unless there’s been a more positive report since, it’s one I would stay away from.

[Priceiskey]

Aah right, that would make sense given the price. I’m guessing it was the result of her fall. Any idea how bad the injury was to Marie Banrigh?

I was thinking the same as you regarding MB as 50/1 would be massive but I checked quotes and it’s unlikely we will see her race again. Also Mares Chase is 20f.

[The King Pimm]

Hock injury,

I think on racing TV it was reported her Career was in doubt, and Harry Skelton admitted there’s no guarantee she’ll race again.

Unless there’s been a more positive report since, it’s one I would stay away from.

I just read an update from March 25th on Racing TV stating what you’ve just posted, that was the most recent I could find cheers Will

[The King Pimm]

I was thinking the same as you regarding MB as 50/1 would be massive but I checked quotes and it’s unlikely we will see her race again. Also Mares Chase is 20f.

Thanks Pricesky, so 20 furlongs equates to 2.5miles......Happy Diva territory then!!

[Kevloaf]

Thanks Pricesky, so 20 furlongs equates to 2.5miles......Happy Diva territory then!!

Honeysuckle, Laurina, Benie Des Dieux territory too


Stupid race.


We already have a Ryanair, Festival Plate Handicap, Marsh Novice Chase and Novice Handicap Chase all within 1f of this new race.
Every single horse that runs in it could be making another race stronger.

Interesting to see what goes, hopefully the Novice Handicap Chase!

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Deleted as posted on wrong thread

[Saxon Warrior]

Another query sorry...
Does anyone know anything about the expected distance of the proposed Mares Chase? Many of the mares in the market are yet to jump a fence in a race but Marie Banrigh is currently 50/1? She fell in the Arkle but did very well before then for shrewd connections?? Surely 50/1 is a huge price for a horse who has won a chase race already

Timeform 12th August 2019 quote

“Nicky Henderson has welcomed the introduction of a new Grade Two Mares' Chase at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival.
The British Horseracing Authority announced on Monday that a Grade 2 two-and-a-half-mile event will be added to the meeting, replacing an existing race which has yet to be decided.”

That’s why I think that Put The Kettle On could be a Champion Chase Mare, that distance may suit her better, as well as massively more prize money and being a Grade 1.

[Eggs]

Timeform 12th August 2019 quote

“Nicky Henderson has welcomed the introduction of a new Grade Two Mares' Chase at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival.
The British Horseracing Authority announced on Monday that a Grade 2 two-and-a-half-mile event will be added to the meeting, replacing an existing race which has yet to be decided.”

That’s why I think that Put The Kettle On could be a Champion Chase Mare, the distance my suit her better, s well as massively more prize money and being a Grade 1.

...one where there could be value in the Hills ‘any race’ market. Put the Kettle On is a best priced 10-1 for the Mares Chase, yet 14-1 (without boost) any race with Hills.

[nortonscoin200]

I reckon one of the best value bets currently available is Discorama to win any race at 25-1 with Hills (27.6-1 with boost). Sky go 14-1 TWAR.

He'll be eight next year and has been raised just 2lbs (to 150) for his gallant staying-on third place in the Ultima last month when he was beaten 21/2 lengths by The Conditional who was in receipt of 9lbs. TC has been upped 8lbs and runner up Kildisart has gone up 5lbs.

If Discorama makes the Festival he is surely a certainty to rock up in the Ultima again - and he went off at 11-2 this year.

What's more his Festival record is terrific.

In 2019 he was second in the National Hunt Chase at 9-2.

And in 2018 he was 2nd in the Martin Pipe at 33-1.

Those are the only times he has run at Cheltenham. His latest performance was his first race back after a wind op.

So the chances are there's a bit more improvement to come and he will almost go off at a single figure price in the Ultima next time because of his record at the Festival.

I reckon anyone thinking of doing an each way roll-up could do a lot worse than include Discorama in terms of current value.

He's among a select band of just 7 horses who have finished in the frame at the Festival in each of the last 3 years.

Here's the list which includes a few extras who have also finished in the frame at the Festival at least 3 times in their careers:
(latest result on left of table)

Tiger Roll: 2 1 1 1 0 1
Faugheen: 3 3 6 1 1
Min: 1 5 2 2
Melon: 2 2 2 2
Sire Du Berlais: 1 1 4
Politilogue: 1 2 4 4 0 (the 4th place finishes were in fields of 8 and 9 so no each way pay-out)
Santini: 2 2 3
Shantou Flyer: 3 2 2
Discorama: 3 2 2

Interestingly, I think Discorama is the only one of the above horses quoted in Hills TWAR list.

Obviously, many horses are too young to have had the chance to appear at three Festivals. Another 16 have made the frame twice in a row over the latest couple of years but it's still a pretty exclusive club(apologies if I've missed any out):

Fakir D'oudairies: 2 4
Kildisart: 2 4
Benie Des Dieux: 2 F 1
Envoi Allen: 1 1
Champ: 1 2
Minella Indo: 2 1
Allaho: 3 3
Black tears: 2 4
Bun Doran: 3 2
Samcro: 1 1
A Plus Tard: 3 1
Concertina: 1 2
Kilfilum Cross 2 2
Al Boum Photo: 1 1 F
Lost In Translation: 3 2
Us and Them: 3 2

[Faugheen_Machine]

Wouldn't rule out a tilt at the Pertemps before being aimed at the national. That's what I'd be doing if I owned him.

[Outlaw]

Norton i think with a horse like Discorama , he is potentially one down the line who is worth requesting a place only bet as he's very solid but doesn't get his head in front too often as a few on here have eluded too 2/16 12.5%. No doubt will get aimed at graded races with a view to dropping a few lbs or if in hcaps you don't want him to win one pre fez so a couple of poor/average runs then Rab with NRNB Jan would be a potential ploy IMO.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Wouldn't rule out a tilt at the Pertemps before being aimed at the national. That's what I'd be doing if I owned him.

His hurdle testing is currently much lower than his chase rating which might attract them down the hurdle route. Can be a nice prep race for the national too.

[nortonscoin200]

Wouldn't rule out a tilt at the Pertemps before being aimed at the national. That's what I'd be doing if I owned him.

His hurdle testing is currently much lower than his chase rating which might attract them down the hurdle route. Can be a nice prep race for the national too.

Yeah, you're spot on FM. Don't know why I didn't think of the Pertemps. Think my brain must have been in chase only mode.

But I'd be more than happy with the 25-1 if he rocks up in the Pertemps. Reckon he'd have a great chance and he'd almost certainly go off at single figures.

You've made me even happier about my ways-to-avoid-lockdown-boredom dabble - even though Outlaw's right to say NRNB in January is probably the sensible play.

I know you fancy him for the National FM and I'm with you on that too.

The first three in the Ultima are all of great interest to me in the National. They'd be my three against the field at present.

Watched the Ultima again today and The Conditional won it much more easily than I thought on the day. He travelled into the straight going by far the best and won a shade comfortably despite making a hash of the second last.

He's sure to get a perfect weight in the National, probably about 10st 9lbs if the Tiger runs.

I see Tiger Roll has dropped 3lbs to 168 so if he goes for the hat-trick next year Kildisart (155) should get a weight around 11st provided they don't do anything to inflate his mark further.

Agree a hurdle prep is fine for the National but I've always paid special attention to horses who run well in the Ultima and the Kim Muir without necessarily winning.

For me, a good performance in those two races shows the horse is in good fettle - you can often still get some decent prices if you lump on while the bookies are distracted by the Festival - and I don't go along with the view held by some that a tough race at the Festival can scupper a horse's GN chances.