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Originally posted by Istabraq
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I do the same Istabraq , ferny hollow,monkfish & champ with aione for me. -
Nice look about that BC.Originally posted by BigChaang View Post
But every time I see Monkfish I think Diol Ker....Comment
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Ista Diol kier won’t ever be beating Monkfish again. Watch Monkfish next year when he’s filled that giant frame and gets a fence in front of him. You can remind me of this post if he does though hahaOriginally posted by Istabraq View PostComment
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Agreed PIK -He's (Monkfish) going to be an absolute weapon over fences. Other than Envoi Allen, he's probably the horse I'm looking forward to most going over fences.Originally posted by Priceiskey View PostComment
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...I suppose the danger of including Monkfish with Aione is that Monkfish is favourite for the NH Chase.Originally posted by BigChaang View Post
As an aside, given Monkfish’ RSA and NHC odds, the 8-1 any race with Hills (before boost, although was 10-1 not long ago) looks reasonable.Last edited by Eggs; 23 April 2020, 04:19 PM.Comment
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I think the NH Chase is the reserve race for most trainers with decent stayers. Monkfish and the better staying novices will go to the RSA again and any horse that has no chance of winning the RSA will go to NH like this year.Originally posted by Eggs View PostComment
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If Monkfish doesn't turn up for the RSA and still runs at the festival then it would likely be the Stayers. Personally, I'd say there's zero chance he runs in the NH chase.Comment
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...agree the RSA is the likely target, but it’s also prominent in the Marsh and NHC betting (not to mention the Stayers Hurdle).Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
Given its best price for the RSA is 10-1, 8-1 any race (without boost) is reasonable & provides a little insurance.Last edited by Eggs; 23 April 2020, 05:17 PM.Comment
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TKP can you send this to Mr Tizzard and let me know when he has read it?Originally posted by The King Pimm View Post
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Ha ha.....after Copperheads performance in the RSA he should definitely have gone to the NH race in hindsightOriginally posted by Outlaw View PostTKP can you send this to Mr Tizzard and let me know when he has read it?Comment
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In fairness he probably saved me a few quid(already did a few quid on him that race), didn't fancy him one bit for an RSA and with how flat him and most of the squad ran it wouldn't of made much difference and I would of backed him at decs again.Originally posted by The King Pimm View PostComment
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JP McManus has had the winner of the National Hunt Chase twice in the last six years with Cause of Causes (2015) and Minella Rocco (2016).
He's also had fancied runners in Edwulf (5-1 3rd fav in 2017), No Comment (9-1 6th fav in 2018) and OK Corral (4-1 2nd fav) in 2019 when he also ran Jerrysback who was 3rd at 16-1.
Last month was the first time in those 6 years when he hasn't had a runner.
It seems to be a race - I know there are many - that he likes to target with a decent staying chaser.
The question is what is he going to run in the race next year?
I can only find two possible candidates among the horses quoted at 50-1 or less at present.
The first is Dickie Diver who hasn't been out since finishing less than 11 lengths fourth to Minella Indo in the Bartlett at the Festival last year. That was on only his third start over hurdles for Henderson so he's obviously very useful.
He won a 3m PTP on heavy by 20 lengths in December 2017 but didn't make his hurdling debut until January 2019 when he was beaten a head into second by Lisnagar Oscar off level weights over 2m 3f at Chepstow.
DD will be 8 next year and you imagine he must have had injury problems to have raced so little. On that score alone he looks a dodgy bet at present.
JP's other candidate in the betting is the Mullins horse Janidil who is quoted at 50-1 with Unibet, the only firm to price him up so far.
Janidil was 5th in the AB last month, beaten about 11 lengths on his first try over 3m. His four other runs for Willie had all been over 2miles - the last two being victories in 27k and 54k handicap hurdles at Down Royal and Fairyhouse.
In the build-up to the Festival Patrick Mullins said words to the effect that it was exceptional for a horse to win two such handicap hurdles in his novice season. Patrick also said Mark Walsh thought the world of Janidil - and Willie was thinking of the AB rather than other options over shorter some weeks before the Festival.
So Willie obviously thinks he's a stayer and the impression I got from his runs over 2m was that he'd be even better over further.
He'll be seven next year, a decent age for the NH Chase and if he is JP's representative I imagine O'Connor will take the ride and he'll probably start at single figures.
I know many here have jumped on Aione at big prices but IMHO Janidil looks the classier of the two - of course it's a gamble whether he'll end up in the NH Chase. But one factor making it reasonably likely is that both Willie and JP will probably have better candidates for the novice chases over shorter trips.Comment
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Hills have gone 33s Aione now leaving Sky with the only 40/1 in the industry.
Well done to those grabbing 80a, 66s and 50s...Comment
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I have gone with Aione for the NH chase too. But the one I like more is Escaria Ten. He looks a real stayer having won 2 times over 3 miles in novice hurdles keeping on strongly in both. He was beaten before that into third behind diol ker and monkfish then sold to the McNeal family for 100k. He was then outpaced in the Martin pipe. Gordon says he’ll be a much better chaser As he’s a big horse and could be Jamie codd’s mount in the NH chase as he won on him in a ptp when he said he was the best horse he had ridden for a long time in after the point. 33/1 with 365 looks big.Comment
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