Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[Istabraq]

True that - but Apparently a Huntington race Prep also meant that it was impossible for shishkin to win the supreme (100 race preps and zeros supreme winners).

That is a solid trend (same for Ludlow, Wincanton and Bangor) and one that should be considered each year, the fact Shishkin has the pace to win around a speed track like Huntingdon and have the agility, balance and stamina to win at Cheltenham confirms the range of skills and quality the horse has.
The Huntingdon trend is still very valid, but occasionally a special talent can overcome it...

[7barrows]

That is a solid trend (same for Ludlow, Wincanton and Bangor) and one that should be considered each year, the fact Shishkin has the pace to win around a speed track like Huntingdon and have the agility, balance and stamina to win at Cheltenham confirms the range of skills and quality the horse has.
The Huntingdon trend is still very valid, but occasionally a special talent can overcome it...

Precisely the point I am making. Shishkin here to break all the trends , he’s special. I think epatante will also win the champion hurdle again

[EnvoyAllen]

The thing with Shishkin’s price at 4/1 is not if it represents value against Al Boum Photo’s current 5 and 6’s - it’s what’s the starting price likely to be in 11 months time?

Every couple of years a ‘Superstar’ horse arrives - Douvan, Spinter S, Altior and they win the Arkle at very short odds on. And the point with Shishkin at 4’s now is..... there’s a good chance, not certain, but a good chance he will be in the same bracket as the aforementioned. Which means if he runs well pre Cheltenham and cleans up in the 2 mile novice chases, he’ll go off 1/2 on. So the current price has the potential to be 8 times bigger (800%) than you’ll get when the tape goes up. And that’s why the 4/1 still represents very sound value, even if it looks short. Every couple of years a very good horse wins this the Arkle in a relatively small and uncompetitive field - there’s a very good chance looking ahead 11 months that horse might well be Shishkin.

Al Boum Photo will only halve in price tops so you’re only getting right now a 100% potential price increase 11 months out, with the added caveat the Gold Cup is extremely competitive in terms of quality.

So all told, disregarding any previous stats from 43 years of Supreme Novice winners, Shishkin’s current ante post price might look the steal of the year come next year’s Arkle whereas the current price of Al Boum Photo doesn’t have nowhere near the room to condense further. If Shishkin wins his first novice chase of next season by a few lengths, he go’s to 6/4 straight away.

[Istabraq]

Almost certain the Arkle will be a small field, since the creation of the 20f G1 novice chase (currently known as the Marsh) fields have been very disappointing, so much so there’s even a case to play each way when AP terms offer 3 places and the likely field will be less than 8, late Feb is the time for that.

Much of what EA says is sensible, and whilst I love Shishkin and have included him in several multi’s it’s just not in my make up to hit a 4/1 shot 11 months out, but I couldn’t put anyone off playing Shishkin now...

[Big Chac]

With shishkin being in England I think there is a very high chance he gets to the fez unbeaten and will therefore be pretty short. Looking in the betting the only English horses in the top 10-12 are pic d’hory and mister coffeey. You have others like fusil raffles and pentland hills just after. The main threats come from Ireland with captain Guinness, Elixir, klassical dream etc.

With that in mind, I might have a bit more on at 4/1 as I can’t see any of the English troubling him and he will only meet the Irish on the big day.

[Priceiskey]

I agree with everyone saying Shiskin could be as short as 1/2 and it’s highly unlikely Al Boum will
Be shorter than say 11/4 come the day. As others have said Shiskin could end up facing 6 rivals where Al Boum will have a bigger field and likely tougher opposition.
I was happy to take Shiskin on in the supreme when he was sitting there at the head of the market. I missed the fancy early prices and when he got to around 7/2 I thought that’s a silly price.
Henderson doesn’t have his horse’s fully wound up for a supreme in my opinion. If the horse is talented enough they go win but if your in Henderson’s position and you see a future star and want longevity, you don’t want to burn them out too young.
Binocular, Sprinter Sacre, Spirit Son, Darlan, My Tent Or Yours and Buveur D’air were all beaten in the supreme. After Sprinter got beat he pretty much said this horse will win next years Arkle. Darlan and Spirit Son never got to show their full potential but I’m certain they would also of become future stars.
The fact that Shiskin won this race after never run on an undulating track, never even ran in a graded race and basically only had two previous runs (other fell early) tells me there is loads more to come.
4/1 this far out can be risky. But it could also pay off. Pay your money take your chance, but this horse does need to be held in the highest regard.

[Priceiskey]

With shishkin being in England I think there is a very high chance he gets to the fez unbeaten and will therefore be pretty short. Looking in the betting the only English horses in the top 10-12 are pic d’hory and mister coffeey. You have others like fusil raffles and pentland hills just after. The main threats come from Ireland with captain Guinness, Elixir, klassical dream etc.

With that in mind, I might have a bit more on at 4/1 as I can’t see any of the English troubling him and he will only meet the Irish on the big day.

That’s a fair point. No big smash ups before Cheltenham. I think a fair few who run at the Dublin Festival can leave their race behind.

[nortonscoin200]

I couldn't agree more with the above, if you were to look at stats alone would you have backed ABP for this years gold cup, conygree the year he won it as a novice, defi winning the JLT after winning the scilly isles (there was a stat about scilly isles winners winning at cheltenham).

I think stats should be looked at alongside all the other information, its not something id use to say a horse can't win or is a rubbish price.

I entirely agree with your last sentence Sprintersacren. But when you decide to back a horse on form, ground, distance, track and whatever else enters the equation it is an added bonus if the stats are on your side.

But the the second point I made - which has been ignored in the subsequent discussion - is that on the evidence of repeated viewings of the Supreme I just don't think Shishkin is a potential superstar.


My view - and I accept I'm in the minority - was this: "Some people have pointed out that Shishkin didn't have a very clear passage in the Supreme and did well to win - which is true.

"But replays of the race show that Shishkin's troubles were mostly of his own making. He made a mistake at the third and needed to be ridden along for a few strides and then he was ridden along again at the top of the hill when the pace quickened. Others were going much better, specially Abacadabras. Sure, Shishkin did well to win the race but is he an exceptional Supreme winner - in a similar bracket to Douvan and Altior - I very much doubt it."

Take a look at the replay. It was a really battling victory from Shishkin but he didn't travel particularly well (watch him after the mistake at the third and as they turn and start to come down the hill on the final circuit). Here's a link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hr7hdhUo0hU

I think the race panned out quite well for Shishkin. First came the departure of Elixir and Captain G at the second last and then - more importantly - Davy found himself in front sooner than he probably wanted on Aba.

I just don't see how that was the performance of a superstar.

On the evidence of the Supreme I'd say Shishkin is going to have to be a very slick jumper of fences to justify the sort of odds-on prices some here are expecting. Because if his jumping is less than perfect he could again find himself struggling to stay with the pace as he did at times in the Supreme.

As I say, I accept I'm in the minority and may be talking absolute bollocks. But hey, there's no live racing to talk about. And leaving the stats aside, the visual evidence of Shishkin's performance in the Supreme (by far the best form we have to go on in order to assess him) doesn't encourage me to take 4-1 about him in the Arkle.

I'll shut up now because I'm starting to bore myself.

PS: One final point - I'm amazed no Supreme winner has gone on to win the Champion Hurdle the following season for at least 35 years (I only went back to 19 85).

[billymag]

I entirely agree with your last sentence Sprintersacren. But when you decide to back a horse on form, ground, distance, track and whatever else enters the equation it is an added bonus if the stats are on your side.

But the the second point I made - which has been ignored in the subsequent discussion - is that on the evidence of repeated viewings of the Supreme I just don't think Shishkin is a potential superstar.


My view - and I accept I'm in the minority - was this: "Some people have pointed out that Shishkin didn't have a very clear passage in the Supreme and did well to win - which is true.

"But replays of the race show that Shishkin's troubles were mostly of his own making. He made a mistake at the third and needed to be ridden along for a few strides and then he was ridden along again at the top of the hill when the pace quickened. Others were going much better, specially Abacadabras. Sure, Shishkin did well to win the race but is he an exceptional Supreme winner - in a similar bracket to Douvan and Altior - I very much doubt it."

Take a look at the replay. It was a really battling victory from Shishkin but he didn't travel particularly well (watch him after the mistake at the third and as they turn and start to come down the hill on the final circuit). Here's a link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hr7hdhUo0hU

I think the race panned out quite well for Shishkin. First came the departure of Elixir and Captain G at the second last and then - more importantly - Davy found himself in front sooner than he probably wanted on Aba.

I just don't see how that was the performance of a superstar.

On the evidence of the Supreme I'd say Shishkin is going to have to be a very slick jumper of fences to justify the sort of odds-on prices some here are expecting. Because if his jumping is less than perfect he could again find himself struggling to stay with the pace as he did at times in the Supreme.

As I say, I accept I'm in the minority and may be talking absolute bollocks. But hey, there's no live racing to talk about. And leaving the stats aside, the visual evidence of Shishkin's performance in the Supreme (by far the best form we have to go on in order to assess him) doesn't encourage me to take 4-1 about him in the Arkle.

I'll shut up now because I'm starting to bore myself.

PS: One final point - I'm amazed no Supreme winner has gone on to win the Champion Hurdle the following season for at least 35 years (I only went back to 19 85).

Think there wont be many people that would say the race "panned out quite well for Shishkin", Id have a totally opposite view.

Worth pointing out Nico only gave him 3 slaps to get on top in the finish. 4/1 max bet.

To compare a price for the Gold Cup and the Arkle is pretty pointless, judge the horses on their merits and in context of the race they will be going for. Arkle as we know can often be a small field especially if there is a potential superstar lining up, Gold Cup the opposite with everyone wanting to take there chance and much more likely to have a bunch of horses near the top rating in the race.

[Istabraq]

The advantage in backing ABP is that you have a cast iron target, whatever anyone thinks/has heard about Shishkins career path there still has to be a (small) doubt he lands in the Arkle.

I’ll always remember being told about a horse who would win multiple Gold Cups before he was seen on a racecourse, that horse was Big Bucks...

[EnvoyAllen]

I just hope nortonscoin200 got on his namesake back in 1990?!? ���� Forget the 100/1 on the day.........you’d have got an extra zero on him 11 months out!,

I think the analysis & reasoning here about Shishkin (and other horses) is always very interesting. And of course, it’s one of a few sports that genuinely is all about one’s personal preferences and opinions. I would not deny that 4/1 is short nearly a year out, and many professional punters would laugh about even touching an unproven horse who hasn’t jumped a fence in public, could get injured, and even if showing genuine traits of a superstar, just run poorly on the day like Defi did in the a Champ Chase a month back. But there’s many,many more professionals who’ll argue (I’m very much a novice!) that the 4/1 against what the starting price might look like is, actually, a steal potentially. It could be. It might not be. But when Nico de Boinville (very humble - not one for hyperbole) says on more than one occasion “he’s got all the gears, reminds me of how Altior go’s about his business.....”, then those are quotes you have to take very strong note of. Paul Kealy of the Racing Post was talking up Shishkin this time last year as a potential equine superstar, another fairly decent judge of a horse who always makes it clear when he writes he hardly ever backs favourites. He backed Imperial Aura all the way through last season, and he’s probably enjoying his winnings in Barbados right now (with eff all chance of currently getting back!).

Most of my ante post bets I will confess (I’ve played most of my cards already) be around the Shishkin/Envoi Allen ‘double’ going to the Marsh hopefully. I’ve laid out quite a bit admittedly. Reiterating - the Arkle every couple of years is uncompetitive (with one strong horse, usually going off at odds on) and generally always a small field. The 4/1 yes looks a tiny price. But it might the biggest price you’ll get between now and March 16th at 2.10pm next year.

Also, just to touch on Envoi Allen for next year and his target,I’d love to hear people’s thoughts. Gavin Lynch was asked on Upping the Ante the day before this year’s festival even began where Envoi A will go next year (2 days before he’d even won the Ballymore). Lynch didn’t flinch (pun intended) and just said ‘I’d think he’ll go the Marsh’ - which was pretty telling. This was pre Ballymore, not post race. Envoi A was bought for a huge sum - £400k with one thing in mind, to win a Gold Cup. So he’s just won comfortably over a reasonably talented field over 2m 5f, why on earth would he drop back next year to either the Champ hurdle or Arkle with the 3m 2f distance the year after that being the probable sole reason his owners bought him for such a huge amount?? It would make no sense, surely?? If he was going to run a Champ hurdle, it would have been this year. So the only logical path for him is next year’s Marsh or potentially RSA. And those 3m slogs in the winter could take a hell of a lot out of him, if prepping for a dig at the RSA. He’s got tactical speed as evidenced throughout last season, Elliott and Cheveley Park will want him as good as is possible for the his 2 prime years of 2022 and the year after when he’ll be 8 and 9, I’d be flabbergasted if they’d drop him to 2 miles nexy year (champ hurdle a tiny possibility if he can’t jump a fence come October) and slightly surprised if they slog him over 3 miles throughout next Winter which could damage his prospects long term for his potential peak Gold Cup years.

But of course, it’s only my opinion......

[FaugheenTheMachine]

If Envoi Allen schools well over fences I can only see him in the Marsh or the RSA; with the Marsh much more likely for me especially after Samcro winning it this year, trainers are creatures of habit

[nortonscoin200]

[QUOTE=EnvoyAllen;160315]I just hope nortonscoin200 got on his namesake back in 1990?!? ���� Forget the 100/1 on the day.........you’d have got an extra zero on him 11 months out!,

Yes I was on Envoy.....Backed him at 200-1 with Ladbrokes in Tewkesbury on the way to the track on the day of the race.

[7barrows]

Think there wont be many people that would say the race "panned out quite well for Shishkin", Id have a totally opposite view.

Worth pointing out Nico only gave him 3 slaps to get on top in the finish. 4/1 max bet.

To compare a price for the Gold Cup and the Arkle is pretty pointless, judge the horses on their merits and in context of the race they will be going for. Arkle as we know can often be a small field especially if there is a potential superstar lining up, Gold Cup the opposite with everyone wanting to take there chance and much more likely to have a bunch of horses near the top rating in the race.

Shish has been nibbled in to 7/2 with a few book makers today ..... now the bookies are starting to take the piss!

[Eireman]

Jamie Codd didn’t say that

Yes he did.

https://www.irishracing.com/news?headline=Ballyadam-brings-up-Elliott-brace-with-a-bang&prid=207917