Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[Kautostar]

Put The Kettle on - wasn't
Duc Des Genievres - wasn't (showed graded novice hurdle form chasing Samcro’s arse on multiple occasions)
Footpad - was
Altior - was
Douvan - was
Un De Sceaux - was
W****** W******* - definitely wasn't
Simonsig - wasn't (Overturn rated higher) - won the ballymore so unlucky not to be top rated obvious graded novice hurdle form and 4/1 ante post fav if my memory serves me right
Captain Chris - wasn't - (a bit under the radar as a novice hurdler but Hobbs always raves about him as a future star chaser so he wasn’t a total unknown quantity)
Sizing Europe - wasn't -(top quality graded form as a hurdler, fav for champ hurdle when he went wrong)
Forpadydeplasterer - wasn't (came 4th in ballymore and won a Deloitte novice hurdle, again showed graded hurdle form)
Tidal Bay - wasn't - (2nd in ballymore)

My point wasn’t they had to be top rated although that helps but top hurdle form is generally a good starting point in finding winners. Almost all the above had some degree of graded hurdle form.

I didn’t say Shishkin was value at 4/1 but I’d personally want him in my book as it looks to me at this early stage like another altior year.

[7barrows]

BALLYADAM 40-1 skybet for the supreme. Seems a big price? Jamie codd got off him at downPatrick and said he could be the best he’s ever ridden , and he’s been on envoi Allen and some other class horses. He’s best price 20-1 for the ballymore and I know the stable have ferny hollow , I think ballyadam could be speedy horse at 2 miles ? Any quotes on ferny and is he defo being aimed for the supreme yet do we know?

[thorne365]

My point wasn’t they had to be top rated although that helps but top hurdle form is generally a good starting point in finding winners. Almost all the above had some degree of graded hurdle form.

Its simply this isn't it? as a Nh horse progresses (normally from bumper -> hurdles -> chases) we are gaining more information about it's inherent ability as a racehorse. At the time of novice chase campaign, if we choose to ignore hurdle form we're throwing away valuable (and most of the) evidence we have which makes no sense. Of course when we then get chase info filtering in we should give it more weight as it.

Good old bayesian approach .

This assumes you (as i do) hold racecourse form above trainer quotes / stable hype / cost / etc

[Arkle]

Just looking at the bumper think ferny hollows race would be the supreme tucked in and going off the pace late while from Ballyadams bumper run he wasn’t stopping over 2m1 all of Gordon’s superstars seem to go down the ballymore route samcro envoi Allen I’ve placed a e/w double ferny supreme Ballyadam ballymore

[Istabraq]

I generally believe, in the case of top horses, the more evidence you have to assess (on a racecourse) the more chance you have of winning, so I usually use hurdle form as a tool to assess a horses chance in a novice chase, this has to be sensible no ?
The trouble with the rating system is that novice form is always rated lower than open form and so many top novices beat up on poor horses by cantering 2m+ and winning half the track, it’s so hard to rate those performances.
It’s entirely possible you have a horse rated 145 over hurdles where the talent/ability could easily have commanded a higher rating.

One piece of evidence I don’t ignore often enough is flat rating, I’m sure I’m not alone in getting giddy when a 98-100 rated flat animal goes novice hurdling.
History is littered with these who could conceivably have a higher rating on the level than NH.
Totally different game, if you can’t leave the ground and land fluently you will struggle to be any sort of NH horse.

But for me hurdle form has to be considered when looking at nov chasers...

[Arkle]

It’s also the shape they take at hurdles or there stride everyone’s talking about captain Guinness for the arkle etc and it’s not because he’s winning every race it’s his approach and jumping it’s taking a view on how they will now take to fences personally for shishkin it will be no problem to him and if he gets in trouble has the gears to make up for it!

[Kevloaf]

Its simply this isn't it? as a Nh horse progresses (normally from bumper -> hurdles -> chases) we are gaining more information about it's inherent ability as a racehorse. At the time of novice chase campaign, if we choose to ignore hurdle form we're throwing away valuable (and most of the) evidence we have which makes no sense. Of course when we then get chase info filtering in we should give it more weight as it.

Good old bayesian approach .

This assumes you (as i do) hold racecourse form above trainer quotes / stable hype / cost / etc

I don't think that differs from what I've said throughout my posts.


I was just defending the original post where somebody questioned whether 4/1 is value with 11 months to go and got jumped on a bit for daring to say it.

[Istabraq]

I was just defending the original post where somebody questioned whether 4/1 is value with 11 months to go and got jumped on a bit for daring to say it.

Could be that assumptions were made, rightly or wrongly, on the identity of the original post which affected the response...

[JackieMoon33]

BALLYADAM 40-1 skybet for the supreme. Seems a big price? Jamie codd got off him at downPatrick and said he could be the best he’s ever ridden , and he’s been on envoi Allen and some other class horses. He’s best price 20-1 for the ballymore and I know the stable have ferny hollow , I think ballyadam could be speedy horse at 2 miles ? Any quotes on ferny and is he defo being aimed for the supreme yet do we know?

I’ve seen conflicting quotes about Ballyadam from Jamie Codd after his bumper win. The first quote was as above but the second quote was that Ballyadam was ‘the best horse to have run at Downpatrick’. I’m not dismissing the performance in anyway, just saying that it might have been a misquote on Twitter.

Both Ferny Hollow and Ballyadam have a fair amount of stamina in their pedigrees with Ballyadam having slightly more in my opinion. I also wouldn’t just limit their race targets to these two horses as they have six or seven possible high class recruits for novice hurdling next season who could also be top notch.

Assuming they go hurdling with him, Sir Gerhard is the one I like most for the Supreme out of the Cheveley battalion. He won a PtP but he looks sharp and has a speedy pedigree. Everything I’ve seen and read about him makes me think he could be a star.

[Kautostar]

I don't think that differs from what I've said throughout my posts.


I was just defending the original post where somebody questioned whether 4/1 is value with 11 months to go and got jumped on a bit for daring to say it.

I’m not jumping on you for it, I actually like the debate. My point was more aimed at envoi’s quote about hurdles form having no use to finding chase winners.
However re Shishkin is 4/1 value.....the price is a bit on the tight side.
Is Shishkin the most likely arkle winner.....absolutely.

So I think with Shishkin and the arkle betting in general it’s a case of making a decision early do you
1 - Get involved and back Shishkin now as I expect he’ll be max 3/1 by September and possibly cover a few of the each way value horses
2 - Leave Shishkin and just back a few of the each way value horses fully aware that there’s a good chance you’re just playing for places unless Shishkin can’t jump/gets injured etc
3 - completely leave the race alone
I don’t think leaving this race late is a good play as Shishkin will go ridiculously short if he wins first time out. So for me it’s 1

[Eggs]

I’ve seen conflicting quotes about Ballyadam from Jamie Codd after his bumper win. The first quote was as above but the second quote was that Ballyadam was ‘the best horse to have run at Downpatrick’. I’m not dismissing the performance in anyway, just saying that it might have been a misquote on Twitter.

Both Ferny Hollow and Ballyadam have a fair amount of stamina in their pedigrees with Ballyadam having slightly more in my opinion. I also wouldn’t just limit their race targets to these two horses as they have six or seven possible high class recruits for novice hurdling next season who could also be top notch.

...the Noel Meade quote is also worthy of note;

“I’m sure Gordon Elliott won’t mind me saying this, as the cat is well out of the bag, but I saw a horse of his called Ballyadam work in a schooling race at Fairyhouse the other day and he looks like he could be something special.....”

[Arkle]

https://mobile.twitter.com/racingtv/status/1229047196437315590

Only short but can gauge a lot

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

https://mobile.twitter.com/racingtv/...47196437315590

Only short but can gauge a lot

Apart from the fact he went on to get beat on debut, something they must not have been expecting based on that interview and SP. The game is littered with hyped up horses that fail to replicate their form at home on the track. Personally I’m happy to back them at a decent price before they debut, but Ballyadam still has a fair bit to prove he is the real deal despite the facile victory on his second start.

[JackieMoon33]

What price a Cheveley Park clean sweep in the novice hurdles?

[Kevloaf]

I’m not jumping on you for it, I actually like the debate. My point was more aimed at envoi’s quote about hurdles form having no use to finding chase winners.
However re Shishkin is 4/1 value.....the price is a bit on the tight side.
Is Shishkin the most likely arkle winner.....absolutely.

So I think with Shishkin and the arkle betting in general it’s a case of making a decision early do you
1 - Get involved and back Shishkin now as I expect he’ll be max 3/1 by September and possibly cover a few of the each way value horses
2 - Leave Shishkin and just back a few of the each way value horses fully aware that there’s a good chance you’re just playing for places unless Shishkin can’t jump/gets injured etc
3 - completely leave the race alone
I don’t think leaving this race late is a good play as Shishkin will go ridiculously short if he wins first time out. So for me it’s 1

EA's originaly post was well reasoned. I assume the quote about not using hurdles form at all was a bit flippant and taken out of context... after a certain point there does become a time when I'd disregard hurdles form.... but it's a long way into a horses career, certainly not during a Novice Chase campaign.


For the record, I backed Shishkin and Envoi Allen in a double when they were 5/1 and 6/1. You cannot be too confident this far out but if every horse was the same price I'd back Shishkin. As it stands I will be making a book and have backed some others each way.


On your options, (3) leaving the race woudln't be an option I'd ever consider in the Arkle personally.

(2) I think that's the most sensible given that Shishkin is priced as if he's slightly more likely to win than Altior was at the same stage in their careers. In my opinion Altior was more impressive in his Supreme so that'd stop me having a 'silly' single.

On option (1)... I suppose it depends on how you play overall. For me, the difference in 4/1 and 3/1 in terms of returns would be negligible. I'm generally looking for a 50 pts profit return from any horse, so the amount I'd need to put on, wouldn't make sense in April, if he'd only be 1 pt shorter on chase debut... it's likely he'll always be "too short" relative to other horses but it's a case of whether you get ahead of that particular curve or not.


So yes, I expect 4/1 to look a nice price on the day, but I'd argue 3/1 in October (when it's confirmed he's going chasing, has schooled well, has summered well, no set backs etc) is a better value bet, even though it's not a bigger price