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Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

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  • Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
    Altior was available at 5/1 right up until Hendo confirmed that they were going I over fences, then the price got cut across the board. I think his price held until September time.
    Can’t remember the price for the ante post QM single but remember having a nice play at 8/1 on the Arkle/QM double in the run up to his Arkle...

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    • Thank you bud, Glad you are a Santini fan too. I am really bullish on him next year. Personally I am bullish on everything hendo. Not sure if thats a good or bad thing yet! I think santini will go betfair chase (as he already has the beating of bristol and LOT) and then maybe cotsworld chase again. I think the cheek pieces will prove very effective and if he gets a little more toe I feel & Hope he will be too experienced for the novices. However I sense the masses will get behind CHAMP cos of colours and name and is the main danger for me after that impressive rsa...

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      • Originally posted by George196 View Post
        I was searching for altiors odds post supreme 2016 for my researched into shishkin for the arkle and found you funnily enough kev from an old forum on here from 2016... If I remember correctly you were punting the altior and yokhill double back in septemner 2016.... and it landed

        lets do the same with SHISH & Envoi and good to see you are still going strong!!
        It 100% looks like I've asked the question just for that answer



        Yes, very much like the double, have posted about it already

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        • Originally posted by George196 View Post
          Thank you bud, Glad you are a Santini fan too. I am really bullish on him next year. Personally I am bullish on everything hendo. Not sure if thats a good or bad thing yet! I think santini will go betfair chase (as he already has the beating of bristol and LOT) and then maybe cotsworld chase again. I think the cheek pieces will prove very effective and if he gets a little more toe I feel & Hope he will be too experienced for the novices. However I sense the masses will get behind CHAMP cos of colours and name and is the main danger for me after that impressive rsa...
          Hi George, just my views on Santini and the race being 11 months away, I don’t see any value in his current price. Just seen he’s a general 7/1 shot and to me that is very skinny. I’m a big fan of the horse and you’re right he’s still fairly inexperienced and still could be improving. I agree with you that he would of won if he hadn’t had to switch after the last, but the problem was before that, when he didn’t have the tactical speed to get into a better position when needed. You could argue if they went harder his stamina would of come into play but it wasn’t to be. He’s also got a big trend against him which is if you don’t win a Gold Cup the first time you try you will find it very difficult to win one on your second or third attempt. I know it’s been done but you could count the horses on one hand who have in history. Native River was the only one in the last twenty years and the ground played a big part that day. Looking at next years race, the same leading players will be taken Santini on as this year, but you also have to put this years RSA 1-2 into the mix which makes it even more competitive. Santini needs plenty of work to get fit and Hendo won’t want him peaking too soon so it would be no surprise to see him beat on his debut next year. He was nearly toppled by a horse he had 13 pound in hand of on his Seasonal debut last year. If he is beaten the bookies are likely to keep his price unchanged as they know the horse and he’s likely to bring his A game for the Gold Cup. Like I said I’m a fan of the horse. He’s tough jumps sound, and stays all day but if I was to predict what price he will be before the race next year I’d say between 4/1-6/1. It’s hard to see how Al Boum will not be fav as it’s highly likely he will go his tried and tested route of one run in a weak race before going straight to Cheltenham. Taking around 7/1 this far out about a horse who has to stay in form and stay sound for 11 months and likely to be only a couple of points shorter on the day isn’t for me. But if you really believe in him and can see him mopping up his two trial races and seeing him potentially going off fav then 7 or 8/1 could be right for you. I haven’t done this post to put you off, just to give you a different thought process. The other horse you mentioned Shiskin could well go off odds on so he would be the much better bet of the two for me at this stage although I wouldn’t want to be going much shorter than his current price this far out. Good luck.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Priceiskey View Post
            Hi George, just my views on Santini and the race being 11 months away, I don’t see any value in his current price. Just seen he’s a general 7/1 shot and to me that is very skinny. I’m a big fan of the horse and you’re right he’s still fairly inexperienced and still could be improving. I agree with you that he would of won if he hadn’t had to switch after the last, but the problem was before that, when he didn’t have the tactical speed to get into a better position when needed. You could argue if they went harder his stamina would of come into play but it wasn’t to be. He’s also got a big trend against him which is if you don’t win a Gold Cup the first time you try you will find it very difficult to win one on your second or third attempt. I know it’s been done but you could count the horses on one hand who have in history. Native River was the only one in the last twenty years and the ground played a big part that day. Looking at next years race, the same leading players will be taken Santini on as this year, but you also have to put this years RSA 1-2 into the mix which makes it even more competitive. Santini needs plenty of work to get fit and Hendo won’t want him peaking too soon so it would be no surprise to see him beat on his debut next year. He was nearly toppled by a horse he had 13 pound in hand of on his Seasonal debut last year. If he is beaten the bookies are likely to keep his price unchanged as they know the horse and he’s likely to bring his A game for the Gold Cup. Like I said I’m a fan of the horse. He’s tough jumps sound, and stays all day but if I was to predict what price he will be before the race next year I’d say between 4/1-6/1. It’s hard to see how Al Boum will not be fav as it’s highly likely he will go his tried and tested route of one run in a weak race before going straight to Cheltenham. Taking around 7/1 this far out about a horse who has to stay in form and stay sound for 11 months and likely to be only a couple of points shorter on the day isn’t for me. But if you really believe in him and can see him mopping up his two trial races and seeing him potentially going off fav then 7 or 8/1 could be right for you. I haven’t done this post to put you off, just to give you a different thought process. The other horse you mentioned Shiskin could well go off odds on so he would be the much better bet of the two for me at this stage although I wouldn’t want to be going much shorter than his current price this far out. Good luck.


            Thanks for the comment bud. Don’t worry I love an alternative view as it’s easy to get caught up emotionally into a horse and sometimes you gotta think with a your head! Betfair & paddy power opened betting at 12/1 which I thought was way too bigger price so I am sitting pretty on 12a which I think is a price worth backing to get one better.

            I think hendo just got complacent perhaps on the sandown win and the rack didn’t suit but he got away with it and they won’t make that mistake again. Have followed santini since before the RSA so can’t not have him in the book and think the horse gets a tough time from the pundits and I think he’ll improve again for the gold cup run and cheek pieces. He’s a better horse each time he runs !

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            • Originally posted by George196 View Post
              Thanks for the comment bud. Don’t worry I love an alternative view as it’s easy to get caught up emotionally into a horse and sometimes you gotta think with a your head! Betfair & paddy power opened betting at 12/1 which I thought was way too bigger price so I am sitting pretty on 12a which I think is a price worth backing to get one better.

              I think hendo just got complacent perhaps on the sandown win and the rack didn’t suit but he got away with it and they won’t make that mistake again. Have followed santini since before the RSA so can’t not have him in the book and think the horse gets a tough time from the pundits and I think he’ll improve again for the gold cup run and cheek pieces. He’s a better horse each time he runs !
              ...I think it was Racing Post editor, Keith Melrose (?), who wrote something along the lines of ‘by the time you read this, the 12-1 for Santini to win next years Gold Cup will be long gone’. Yet, one or two firms were still giving those odds on that Saturday morning. It didn’t last too long afterwards.
              Last edited by Eggs; 15 April 2020, 09:33 AM.

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              • I like santini but I just struggle to see him winning the gold cup this year. People are saying he would have won if they went a bit quicker and he could use his stamina but if they went quicker how far further back would he have been? he lacks tactical pace which I think is crucial in any race. In my view he would need the race to pan out exactly for him to be within any chance of winning, I just can't see it myself.

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                • Originally posted by sprintersacren View Post
                  I like santini but I just struggle to see him winning the gold cup this year. People are saying he would have won if they went a bit quicker and he could use his stamina but if they went quicker how far further back would he have been? he lacks tactical pace which I think is crucial in any race. In my view he would need the race to pan out exactly for him to be within any chance of winning, I just can't see it myself.
                  Ultimately, after 3m 2.5f he was beaten about two and a half feet, if they run the race again and he meets every fence on a stride he wins, very small margins between success and failure.
                  He will be a very strong contender for next season's renewal, I just don't see any value in his current price given my view the RSA was a strong renewal...

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                  • I do like Santini and yes he may have won had he not needed to switch after the last.

                    He could still improve as has been mentioned but a slight part of me feels this year was his ultimate chance, to get so close! Time will tell of course and next year is shaping up to be special already.

                    On a side note, with connections having minella indo do we see Monalee dropping into the Ryanair? He did put the staying to bed imo but surely splitting them up gives them 2 live chances, although monalee will be 10 next year.

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                    • I tend to put a line through those that have tried and failed to win a Gold Cup. Santini is a horse I really like but at single figures, he's easily passed over for me at this stage.

                      Anyone else like Defi De Seuil for the Gold Cup?

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                      • Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
                        Anyone else like Defi De Seuil for the Gold Cup?
                        Not for me FM.
                        Champ will be JPs main Gold Cup hope and Defi looks a Ryanair horse all over for me.
                        Personally think the 2021 Gold Cup could be as strong as 2020...

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
                          I tend to put a line through those that have tried and failed to win a Gold Cup. Santini is a horse I really like but at single figures, he's easily passed over for me at this stage.

                          Anyone else like Defi De Seuil for the Gold Cup?
                          Very doubtful stayer of a GC. Might just about get 3m round kempton. 20f looks perfect trip.

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                          • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
                            Not for me FM.
                            Champ will be JPs main Gold Cup hope and Defi looks a Ryanair horse all over for me.
                            Personally think the 2021 Gold Cup could be as strong as 2020...
                            I think it will be a lot stronger with Minella Indo, Champ and Topofrhegame joining in

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                            • Originally posted by Middle_Of_March View Post
                              Worth saying that Betfair are letting you double an any race horse with a horse with a target.

                              So I got a 19/1 double last week of Envoi for any race and Shiskin for the Arkle.
                              I’ve just watched nico’s conversation with chapman from the other day and my god!! He’s soooo sweet on Shishkin!! I’ve read on other threads about him being short already for next years Arkle but you can’t ignore nico and how much he thinks of the horse.

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                              • Santini keeps coming up just short doesn’t he? He’d interest me in a National one day but not in the Gold Cup again (I backed him and Delta Work this year)

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