Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[Nortons who]

Hills seems to let you do it online in the any race A-F category Ista and that’s with any other category of any race or if choosing an actual race as well. Doubles trebles etc.

Yes most of my doubles are ANY / ANY all on-line and trebles too with all three selections ANY race, eg Benie des dieux, Honeysuckle, Salsarretta in the hope they all go different directions but it doesn't matter which.

[Saxon Warrior]

Norton's, it's very rare for me to want to back any horse at single figures antepost before the season starts, or even at all.

The only way I would back them, is similar to your suggestion, in a double.

Either antepost Doubles
OR
Doubled with a football or race result happening on that day, where I was pretty confident of the "on day" selection being a win.

That way I hope to keep all bets for Festival at a minimum of double figures odds.

[Halffat1]

It is more likely that the Festival will lose a handicap, but notice that a few bookmakers have priced up the National Hunt chase which was muted as one of those mentioned as a potential swap with the new Mares' Chase. Does anybody know what the ramifications are for an ante post bet on a race which is subsequently removed from the schedule? I haven't placed a bet yet so wondering whether it's worth holding off until at least the announcement is made.

[Kevloaf]

It is more likely that the Festival will lose a handicap, but notice that a few bookmakers have priced up the National Hunt chase which was muted as one of those mentioned as a potential swap with the new Mares' Chase. Does anybody know what the ramifications are for an ante post bet on a race which is subsequently removed from the schedule? I haven't placed a bet yet so wondering whether it's worth holding off until at least the announcement is made.

Best to check with the individual bookmakers but I'd be shocked if they didn't 'void' all bets if a race was cancelled from the festival, meaning you'd get your money back.

[Big Chac]

Really like angels breath too and hoping he comes back just as good. Was too slow to take the 33's so might just have to settle for the 25's on offer. Think the Ryan air could be a cracker this year with Min, APT/Allaho, Angels breath, Fakir/Defi, samcro and melon maybe just to name a few

[Faugheen_Machine]

Finally its supposed to be fun and in my opinion there is more potential fun to be had in the anticipation of some or all of the above doubles running onto EA.

I'm not disputing the bets NW as I've done similar. It's just the fact that if you feel he is poor value then putting him in multiples doesn't make him good value.

[nortonscoin200]

To put the two Supreme horses in order first, Aba had a much better run through the Asterion Forlonge fiasco than Shishkin, who was badly stopped two out behind Captain Guinness.
Granted an equal run I would see Shishkin at least a 3 lengths Supreme winner, with the other finishers the 11 lengths-plus further behind Aba that they finished in the race. (Quite possibly Captain Guinness and Elixir Dainay somewhere between Aba and the rest, in that 11 length gap).

That would give Shishkin a higher rating than his current 159, maybe 162, if Aba was left on 158.

Goshen would have won the Triumph by 10 lengths at least, maybe 15. I would have him above Aba, and maybe only a 1lb or 2 below Shishkin.

I am currently less clear of Shishkin and Goshen's ceilings than we are Aba's. All are potential Champion Hurdlers, if connections wanted them to be, and only because we didnt get to see Goshen after the last at the Festival, I would currently rate them.

1. Shishkin
2. Goshen
3. Abacadabras

Only Epatante could stop these, IMHO, on what we saw from the Champion Hurdlers this season.

Saxon I very much enjoy reading your posts but I want to take issue with you on your rating of Goshen's performance in the Triumph.

To my mind, your view that Goshen would have won by at least 10 lengths, maybe 15, is pretty wide of the mark.

I watched the race from the lawn next to the track and at the time I thought Goshen was starting to tie up slightly as he came to the last. It looked like the fall of a tired horse to me. Repeated viewings of the replay have only confirmed my initial impression on the day and IMHO he would have won by five lengths tops had he stood up - and maybe by little more than half that distance.

Jamie Moore was niggling him along to go into second place as they turned away from the stands on the final circuit - and he niggled at him again after the third flight. There were others who were certainly travelling better at this stage. Jamie then shook him up again just before they started coming down the hill. And Goshen certainly flew down the hill and jumped the second last beautifully. At that stage he did look like winning by 10-15 lengths. But I just wonder if the effort he'd put in began to take its toll about 1 1/2 furlongs out.

With the benefit of hindsight I think you have to say Jamie pressed the button plenty early enough. If he could rewind the clock I wonder if he'd have held onto Goshen down the hill and then kicked for home. Who knows.

Burning Victory's time was 4mins 6.28. Let's say Goshen would have clocked 4min 5 seconds if he had stood up. Saint Roi did it in 4mins 2.42secs 40 minutes later carrying 1lb less than Goshen. And I'm pretty sure Goshen would not have finished as strongly as Saint Roi after the last.

Goshen at 6-1 for next season's Champion Hurdle holds no appeal for me even though I accept he's the best four-year-old hurdler in the UK. I think Burning Victory is far better value at 50-1. I haven't a clue what Willie plans for her next season but in the Triumph she again jumped badly but finished strongly and will again benefit from the 7lbs mares allowance if she goes for the Champion.

Saint Roi is priced up at 25-1 and I'd also consider him better value than Goshen bearing in mind the poor record of five-year-olds in the CH and Triumph Hurdle winners in particular.

This is what Gaultstats says about the performance of five-year-olds and Triumph Hurdle winners in the following seasons Champion Hurdle:



"FIVE YR OLDS IN PAST YEARS - 2018, Charlie Parcs, a pointless frontrunner PU. 2017, Footpad 4th, Sceau Royal 6th, 2016 4 ran best Top Notch in 5th. 2015 two outsiders outclassed, 2014 Our Conor 5s tragically fell, Petit Zig 6th at 28s. 2013 Countrywide Flame 3rd (16s) Balder Success (UR). Before Katchit, only Persian War, Night Nurse and See You Then won as 5 yr olds.

To summarise, all 73 five yr olds since '85 were beaten, until 2008. Before Espoir D'Allen six of the last 28 to try, have been placed. Apart from Binocular (2nd in Supreme) the other five finished in the first 4 in the previous year's Triumph. Pentland Hills, Coeur Sublime. Since Detroit City '06, the winner of the Triumph has ran 7 times in the following year's Champion Hurdle finishing 1/2/3/5/3/F/Last.

Katchit and Persian War '68 only two Triumph winners to win this the following year. See You Then was only second in the Triumph '84.
Espoir D'Allen didn't make the Triumph in 2018.

Last years Triumph form - Not so good. Apples Jade, Footpad, Lets Dance, Sceau Royal, Who Dares Wins, Clan Des Obeaux and Frodon came from the 2016 vintage. Like 2017, Defi Du Seuil's year, 2018 was not particularly exciting. Saldier inj won the four yr old G1 at Punchestown. 2018 Mr Adjudicator came good later in the season. This year Pentland Hills won the G1 at Aintree, opinions differ as to his performances since. Coeur Subime beat little or nothing at Down Royal in November and I wouldn't have said the rest have covered themselves in glory. 2016 was as good a form Triumph as I can remember."



I also think it's entirely possible Abacadabras will reverse form with Shiskin if they both line up in the CH next season.

As SW pointed out Shishkin deserves great credit for coming back to win after being hampered by AF. But if you watch the race replays Nico had to work pretty hard on Shiskin as they began the decent of the hill on the final circuit. The horse lost his place and ended up behind a wall of horses which was why Nico moved him towards the outside and ended up in the mash up caused by AF.

By contrast, Abacadbras cruised through the entire race until Davy pressed the button just before the last. He was then outsprinted (just) by Shishkin on soft to heavy ground which may have been less to Aba's liking than Shishkin's. I know the CH is never going to be run on fast ground but it may well be nearer good to soft than heavy next season and that would possibly help Aba while making it all the harder for Shishkin to keep a decent position through the race.

I fear you may tear my race reading apart SW but I'm only telling it as I see it - for what it's worth.

The only horse I'd consider backing for the CH at this stage would be Burning Victory at 50-1 each way.

[kinloch brae]

Although she did well to bag a Triumph on her second run I think Burning Victory's price reflects a strong suspicion that she has benefited from both the fall and the burn up on the front end. Take either Goshen or Allmankind out of the race and in all likelihood both would have beaten her easily. She also looks a strong stayer so I think we will see her over a longer trip sooner rather than later.

[The Beast]

Saxon I very much enjoy reading your posts but I want to take issue with you on your rating of Goshen's performance in the Triumph.

To my mind, your view that Goshen would have won by at least 10 lengths, maybe 15, is pretty wide of the mark.

I watched the race from the lawn next to the track and at the time I thought Goshen was starting to tie up slightly as he came to the last. It looked like the fall of a tired horse to me. Repeated viewings of the replay have only confirmed my initial impression on the day and IMHO he would have won by five lengths tops had he stood up - and maybe by little more than half that distance.

Jamie Moore was niggling him along to go into second place as they turned away from the stands on the final circuit - and he niggled at him again after the third flight. There were others who were certainly travelling better at this stage. Jamie then shook him up again just before they started coming down the hill. And Goshen certainly flew down the hill and jumped the second last beautifully. At that stage he did look like winning by 10-15 lengths. But I just wonder if the effort he'd put in began to take its toll about 1 1/2 furlongs out.

With the benefit of hindsight I think you have to say Jamie pressed the button plenty early enough. If he could rewind the clock I wonder if he'd have held onto Goshen down the hill and then kicked for home. Who knows.

Burning Victory's time was 4mins 6.28. Let's say Goshen would have clocked 4min 5 seconds if he had stood up. Saint Roi did it in 4mins 2.42secs 40 minutes later carrying 1lb less than Goshen. And I'm pretty sure Goshen would not have finished as strongly as Saint Roi after the last.

Goshen at 6-1 for next season's Champion Hurdle holds no appeal for me even though I accept he's the best four-year-old hurdler in the UK. I think Burning Victory is far better value at 50-1. I haven't a clue what Willie plans for her next season but in the Triumph she again jumped badly but finished strongly and will again benefit from the 7lbs mares allowance if she goes for the Champion.

Saint Roi is priced up at 25-1 and I'd also consider him better value than Goshen bearing in mind the poor record of five-year-olds in the CH and Triumph Hurdle winners in particular.

This is what Gaultstats says about the performance of five-year-olds and Triumph Hurdle winners in the following seasons Champion Hurdle:



"FIVE YR OLDS IN PAST YEARS - 2018, Charlie Parcs, a pointless frontrunner PU. 2017, Footpad 4th, Sceau Royal 6th, 2016 4 ran best Top Notch in 5th. 2015 two outsiders outclassed, 2014 Our Conor 5s tragically fell, Petit Zig 6th at 28s. 2013 Countrywide Flame 3rd (16s) Balder Success (UR). Before Katchit, only Persian War, Night Nurse and See You Then won as 5 yr olds.

To summarise, all 73 five yr olds since '85 were beaten, until 2008. Before Espoir D'Allen six of the last 28 to try, have been placed. Apart from Binocular (2nd in Supreme) the other five finished in the first 4 in the previous year's Triumph. Pentland Hills, Coeur Sublime. Since Detroit City '06, the winner of the Triumph has ran 7 times in the following year's Champion Hurdle finishing 1/2/3/5/3/F/Last.

Katchit and Persian War '68 only two Triumph winners to win this the following year. See You Then was only second in the Triumph '84.
Espoir D'Allen didn't make the Triumph in 2018.

Last years Triumph form - Not so good. Apples Jade, Footpad, Lets Dance, Sceau Royal, Who Dares Wins, Clan Des Obeaux and Frodon came from the 2016 vintage. Like 2017, Defi Du Seuil's year, 2018 was not particularly exciting. Saldier inj won the four yr old G1 at Punchestown. 2018 Mr Adjudicator came good later in the season. This year Pentland Hills won the G1 at Aintree, opinions differ as to his performances since. Coeur Subime beat little or nothing at Down Royal in November and I wouldn't have said the rest have covered themselves in glory. 2016 was as good a form Triumph as I can remember."



I also think it's entirely possible Abacadabras will reverse form with Shiskin if they both line up in the CH next season.

As SW pointed out Shishkin deserves great for coming back to win after being hampered by AF. But if you watch the race replays Nico had to work pretty hard on Shiskin as they began the decent of the hill on the final circuit. The horse lost his place and ended up behind a wall of horses which was why Nico moved him towards the outside and ended up in the mash up caused by AF.

By contrast, Abacadbras cruised through the entire race until Davy pressed the button just before the last. He was then outsprinted (just) by Shishkin on soft to heavy ground which may have been less to Aba's liking than Shishkin's. I know the CH is never going to be run on fast ground but it may well be nearer good to soft than heavy next season and that would possibly help Aba while making it all the harder for Shishkin to keep a decent position through the race.

I fear you may tear my race reading apart SW but I'm only telling it as I see it - for what it's worth.

The only horse I'd consider backing for the CH at this stage would be Burning Victory at 50-1 each way.

Just want to clarify something Nortoncoin ,Goshen didnt fall.

It wasnt tiredness that caused him to stumble , it was a freak accident whereby his back leg caught his front hoof and wouldnt release in time.

Saxon definately in right ball park in regards to winning distance 10-15L , personally think he very special and even 11 months away think he the one to beat. Any amount of improvement to come taking his age and profile in to consideration.

[Nortons who]

I'm not disputing the bets NW as I've done similar. It's just the fact that if you feel he is poor value then putting him in multiples doesn't make him good value.

I disagree FM, 'value for money' isn't necessarily a science it can also be subjective. If I consider that EA is only worth spending circa 5 points of my bank on and I have a choice of this returning max 20 points as a single or potentially more than this when doubled with other selections, who are you to judge what my relative value for money comparison is on these options. It's my assessment of value for money that counts when I'm putting down the cash.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I think you are missing my point so I'll just leave it be.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Aba sea of blue on oddschecker, best priced 8s for the CH. These daily price moves 11.5 months out are crazy

[Kevloaf]

I disagree FM, 'value for money' isn't necessarily a science it can also be subjective. If I consider that EA is only worth spending circa 5 points of my bank on and I have a choice of this returning max 20 points as a single or potentially more than this when doubled with other selections, who are you to judge what my relative value for money comparison is on these options. It's my assessment of value for money that counts when I'm putting down the cash.

I don't think he's judging you Nortons .... he's just pointing out a technicallity really.


If you had said Envoi Allen is value, but I want to win more than 6/1 allows me to from my stake..... then it all makes sense.




I'm in the same camp, I have used Envoi Allen in a multiple BUT I haven't (and wouldn't) back him while he's this short in a single. That is because of the return I want..... I do still trhink there is some value to the price of EA, however, the risk isn't worth it for me and there are other ways I'd rather spend my pts this far out.




Hope that helps.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I tend to think Shishkin and Envoi Allen are probably a point or 2 on the short side for the Arkle and the Marsh but as someone who likes to have multiple horses in a race I absolutely want both in the book at some point before they shorten below 4/1, a price I rarely bet below. I’m of the opinion that Shishkin is highly likely to be aimed at the Arkle and while there is probably a bit more doubt about EA I have no interest in backing him for the RSA when we have no evidence as yet that he will stay, plus the RSA may well be a hotter race.

For me these two are ideal candidates for free bets throughout the summer with a potential real money top-up before their seasonal debuts assuming connections haven’t said anything to the contrary about the perceived targets. Problem is this year is that prices are being cut left right and centre so hoping both hold around the 5/1 mark for next few months

[archie]

If you consider the owners, Envoi Allen is, for me, more likely for the RSA. They will generally go for the longer race option because they want staying chasers. They were, after all, able to persuade Willie to send Allaho to it and Gordon is much more pliable.

Either way, you would be mad to take a single figure price in either race this far out as a single. In a multiple the same restrictions do not apply but I'd suggest that TWAR is the safe way this far out.