Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[Kevloaf]

I agree that 33/1 is a big price but it’s the same as this seasons early price. If you took 33/1 now your hope is the race cuts up because Sharjah is surely close to his ceiling in terms of progress?? And I do get irritated by the excuse of his ideal running conditions because he’s rarely going to get the ground he desires in March, we get too much rain every winter and spring. It’s the Supasundae situation again, he’s only going to win by default like Politilogue did in the CC. Defi ran a stinker, well below the standard of previous races and if Altior and CPS turned up Politilogue surely would have finished 3rd?? Unfortunately we’ll never now. Personally I wouldn’t rule out backing Sharjah at 33/1 but I can’t see his price changing much over the next 6 months so would rather wait to see what happens to this seasons better novices in terms of hurdles/fences and whether the likes of BVD, Klassical Dream and Saldier come back with a bang.

I am in no rush to add Sharjah at 33/1 without NRNB or a cash out option as it's still March 2020.

Hopefully he is forgotten in the market though, as I would want him backed.

He may require the race to cut up to go off short, but most races cut up... it's close to impossible that they won't. Nobody would have had Epatante before Buveur D'air got injured. Not many backed Politilogue but that race had 3 standout horses near the top of the market until 2 days before...

The Champion Hurdle market looks decent enough, with Epatante, Buveur D'air, Abacadbras, Goshen ... and others will enter the fray.




This probably won't be popular, but I'd be closer to backing Sharjah at 33/1 than Goshen at 6/1 today!

The way Goshen would have won the Triumph is almost being seen as as over 5x times better than coming 2nd in a Champion Hurdle. Goshen's likely improvement is obviously a factor and it's not black and white...



I'm likely to make a book in the race, but I'd rather have cashout or NRNB on my side this far out so I won't be doing anything right now... I just wanted to point out that beaten horses can often be value in my opinion

[The King Pimm]

I agree Kev and I didn’t realise until I just checked that Sharjah is only 7 so 8 next season. I thought he was already 8 so yeah maybe 33/1 isn’t looking that short in hindsight

[billymag]

Darver Star interesting and quite a nice price for the Arkle but he will be 9 so not really a bet I could make at this stage, if hes still 33/1 when he gets an entry in a novice chase id be pretty tempted.

[kinloch brae]

It's massively inflated, even for juvenile standards.

Is it fair to say Goshen is in danger of becoming the most over rated horse in training?

On what he's achieved.... all we know is he's better than the juvenile crop that by all accounts were naff in Ireland, and Ireland won the Triumph?



It was really hard to not be impressed with Goshen, and he does look special but it's been factored into his rating and price.

Yes, the price isn't great now but would you take 10/1 if it was still on offer?

It is difficult to rate him accurately but he was probably a lot better than the other juveniles even if you think that Allmankind ran below his best and would have been better suited by the old course.

Two major concerns for me would be trusting Moore to steer the campaign and his jumping. It is pretty poor by Champion Hurdle standards. At the moment it is all about the 'engine'.

[Kevloaf]

Yes, the price isn't great now but would you take 10/1 if it was still on offer?

It is difficult to rate him accurately but he was probably a lot better than the other juveniles even if you think that Allmankind ran below his best and would have been better suited by the old course.

Two major concerns for me would be trusting Moore to steer the campaign and his jumping. It is pretty poor by Champion Hurdle standards. At the moment it is all about the 'engine'.

Those concerns would put me off too (at the price his is, now).

Erm, no I wouldn't take 10/1 now either as a single. I'd put him in multiples at 10/1 (which is flawed logic really but that's where the price sits for me).

It's a case of his form versus potential as ever, but I don't like it when the price factors in the potential. He'll be a horse that I end up bleatin on about saying things like 'he was always too short for me to back ante post'.... like Pentland Hills was, or Al Boum Photo.

[Geordieboy83]

Surely Arkle is his race? Up with the pace throughout and was swinging when he came down

You would think so, but always a possibility.

[Geordieboy83]

Exactly Q. Luckily, I hadn't backed the horse but I'd still be fuming now if I had.

He's mega interesting for next season and I'm tempted to take the 50s for the Arkle, given that he was traveling sweetly and jumping to the front when brought down.

Ive watched this race so many times, backed in supreme and was annoyed when get taken down, but really was a poor jockey decision I agree when totally cruising, as was Captain Guinness. Took 50s 1pt e/w for Arkle. 33s are available for Marsh also. 16/1 any race seems short enough.

[kinloch brae]

I am surprised that there seems to be such a delayed reaction to the Walsh ride. It was pretty obvious at the time that he had made a complete mess of things. All jockeys thrive on confidence, some more than others. I would definitely have Walsh in that bracket. That wasn't his only poor ride of the week. To be fair nearly every jockey in that race seemed to want to produce their horse to the outside of Asterion Forlonge. If I remember correctly Power adopted the perfect position but his horse wasn't good enough.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Looks like Timeform think the Novice Hurdlers and Goshen can immediately make the step into Champion Hurdle trials.

Maybe only Epatante left to stop them

HURDLERS
163 SHARJAH
161p EPATANTE
161p GOSHEN
160p ENVOI ALLEN
160 HONEYSUCKLE
159p SHISHKIN
159 BUVEUR D'AIR
158 ABACADABRAS
157 DARVER STAR
156 CILAOS EMERY
156 SALDIER

Il show my arse in Woolworths window if Goshen is a better horse than Envoi Allen ever

[FaugheenTheMachine]

And speaking of Envoi Allen where does everyone think he’ll go? Marsh?

[Priceiskey]

And speaking of Envoi Allen where does everyone think he’ll go? Marsh?

I’m favouring the Marsh. It’s the weaker division and you can still go for the Gold cup the season after. Bookies seem split on his target.

[Eggs]

....the 25-1 Chantry House for the Marsh looks a thing of the past following Henderson’s comments that he’ll be stepping up in distance over fences.

[Nortons who]

I’m favouring the Marsh. It’s the weaker division and you can still go for the Gold cup the season after. Bookies seem split on his target.

Possibly but I'm surprised anyone is risking around 5 or 6 -1 when the target could be either of 2 chases or if he doesn't jump well then perhaps the CH and if he really jumps well then why not straight to the GC.....

Looking at the past 12 RSAs and 10 Marsh chase the shortest price winner was Blaklion of the RSA at 8/13, next lowest were in the Marsh of Vatour and Yorkhill at 6-4. Do we think that EA is going to be better than all of them and face sufficiently lower quality opposition, such that his SP will be in that kind of range.

I'm of the view to see how he gets on and then decide nearer the time to back him once his target is confirmed. If he really is a superstar and the odds become prohibitive then maybe this is one that got away.

I have him ANY race in a few doubles but mainly to boost the potential winnings from the other selection in the double.

[Istabraq]

Interesting comments from Hendo about his army of bumper horses who haven’t hit the racecourse yet.
I would assume the plan to go novice hurdling with them next season still remains so perhaps the novice hurdle division may not be quite as Irish/2020 Bumper dominated as we thought...

[Marty973]

Interesting comments from Hendo about his army of bumper horses who haven’t hit the racecourse yet.
I would assume the plan to go novice hurdling with them next season still remains so perhaps the novice hurdle division may not be quite as Irish/2020 Bumper dominated as we thought...

Have you got a link Ista?