Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[SamuelP]

I assume we are talking Champion Chase? I would just ask the question if you are beaten fair and square in what looked an ordinary Arkle where do you find the improvement, particularly as he has shown a reasonable level from the start? I wouldn't even back him to reverse the form with Put The Kettle On.

He's 5 years old, course he can improve

[Priceiskey]

I assume we are talking Champion Chase? I would just ask the question if you are beaten fair and square in what looked an ordinary Arkle where do you find the improvement, particularly as he has shown a reasonable level from the start? I wouldn't even back him to reverse the form with Put The Kettle On.

Fakir is still only 5 and many struggle taking on their elders. The fact that Fakir has been able to compete against them at such a young age speaks volumes and next year when he properly develops he can shine. Defi done nothing as a 5 year old before coming back to form at 6. Also Footpad wasn’t the best at 5 before winning the Arkle. Even Tiger Roll lost his way after winning the Triumph. 5 year old records in Champion hurdles can also back up the claim. I have never warmed to Fakir simply because of his age and taking on stronger horses, but next year I could really see him improving. I know JP and Joseph think the world of him so that’s never a bad sign.

[Istabraq]

I’ve taken a totally different view on the Arkle KB so will keep pressing the 25/1 Fakir for the QM.

Thanks for the Thyme Hill link Samuel, interesting stuff, it’s possible they’re trying different things during the racing lockdown but it does cast something of a doubt....

[SamuelP]

Fakir is still only 5 and many struggle taking on their elders. The fact that Fakir has been able to compete against them at such a young age speaks volumes and next year when he properly develops he can shine. Defi done nothing as a 5 year old before coming back to form at 6. Also Footpad wasn’t the best at 5 before winning the Arkle. Even Tiger Roll lost his way after winning the Triumph. 5 year old records in Champion hurdles can also back up the claim. I have never warmed to Fakir simply because of his age and taking on stronger horses, but next year I could really see him improving. I know JP and Joseph think the world of him so that’s never a bad sign.

Spot on this and makes my 1 sentence look pathetic haha

[The King Pimm]

With regards to the trend of beaten Favourites who did not place then performing well at the following festival who apart from these horses should be on the list??

Asterion Forlonge
Notebook
Carefully Selected
Defi Du Sol
Paisley Park (heart issue)
Minella Melody
Goshen
Thyme Hill
Front View (lost shoe)

Any other horses??

[SamuelP]

I’ve taken a totally different view on the Arkle KB so will keep pressing the 25/1 Fakir for the QM.

Thanks for the Thyme Hill link Samuel, interesting stuff, it’s possible they’re trying different things during the racing lockdown but it does cast something of a doubt....

Watching this year's Arkle back, I too am liking the performances of the front 2. The open division doesn't look very strong based on this year's CC too. So should they stick to 2m I think there's potential. I just think that the mentions of Fakir stepping up and the introduction of the Mares race in regards Put The Kettle On, casts a bit of doubt on their targets further down the line.

No worries Ista. I've had an early point on Thyme Hill for Stayers too. But does add a little bit of doubt about whether he will stick over hurdles

[BigChaang]

With regards to the trend of beaten Favourites who did not place then performing well at the following festival who apart from these horses should be on the list??

Asterion Forlonge
Notebook
Carefully Selected
Defi Du Sol
Paisley Park (heart issue)
Minella Melody
Goshen
Thyme Hill
Front View (lost shoe)

Any other horses??

I'm not too sure about Asterion Forlonge at the moment T.K.P .
Watched the replay back yesterday for the Supreme , Jesus !!,.
Didn't he run out to the right big time .Especially when he collided with ,.-
Captain guinness ?

[kinloch brae]

He's 5 years old, course he can improve

Most of the time that would be correct. I think it becomes a little more clouded if a horse runs to a very high level as a juvenile. For me he was disappointing in the Supreme and then he couldn't take advantage of what looked a golden opportunity in the Arkle. My guess is that his form will level or even tail off quicker than many horses of his age.

[Istabraq]

Watching this year's Arkle back, I too am liking the performances of the front 2. The open division doesn't look very strong based on this year's CC too. So should they stick to 2m I think there's potential. I just think that the mentions of Fakir stepping up and the introduction of the Mares race in regards Put The Kettle On, casts a bit of doubt on their targets further down the line.

No worries Ista. I've had an early point on Thyme Hill for Stayers too

I know connections of Rouge Vif were very sweet on his chances in the Arkle, he was given 157 going into the race and was beaten a mile by the front two and for me he is a reliable yardstick (G2 hurdle winner I think).
I still have the view Fakir’s mistake 2 out was the difference and he’ll reverse form with the winner should they re-oppose, but the open division as you have said is not strong.
A year older, stronger and more experienced puts him bang in the picture for top 2m honours next season, 25/1 for me is the biggest value of all 2021 festival prices...

[archie]

I'd say Fakir goes Ryanair but far too early for JP bingo. Don't forget Le Richebourg might be back to muddy the waters even more.

[Istabraq]

Don't forget Le Richebourg might be back to muddy the waters even more.

Big fan of the horse but after 2 years, give or take, away I’d be shocked if he came back and fulfilled all his potential.
I will be keeping a close eye on him for a G Annual tilt if he runs down the field once or twice when he returns...

[The King Pimm]

I'm not too sure about Asterion Forlonge at the moment T.K.P .
Watched the replay back yesterday for the Supreme , Jesus !!,.
Didn't he run out to the right big time .Especially when he collided with ,.-
Captain guinness ?

Yeah I agree BC, I’m just listing the Fav’s who failed to place. I can’t see Asterion Forlonge visiting Cheltenham again, he needs specific courses to run well and he ran a shocker at Cheltenham

[The King Pimm]

I’ve broken, I’ve just put my first 2021 AP bets on going against everything I’ve spouted so far. I can’t handle house arrest with no live sport on TV!!
Pic Diorhy 33/1 Arkle - 1p e/w Paddy Power
Aione 66/1 4 miler - 0.75p e/w B365
Fakir D’Oundaries 28/1 Champion Chase - 1p e/w Ladbrokes

I had Aione passed on to me as a tip for the AB at this years Festival from one of the top dogs at a leading betting firm who runs the Irish book. I didn’t put much on it as already had a load of horses covered in AB but he ran well for a long way. I would prefer ‘TWAR’ but no odds on him present so had a bit off 66/1 just incase as that’s a big price.

[somer1]

Well played TKP. You lasted longer than most of us. Im doing the states racing as so fucking bored with no racing or sport.

[Big Chac]

I know this is very early to be worrying about cash out/prices but I had a bet on saint roi for the champion hurdle at 33/1 with bet fair a week or so ago but the cash out seems to have gone. Since then it had been clipped into 25's.

I've had a few pennies on at 25's to see if the cash would be there and it is.

So its there for the 25's but not 33's, I'm assuming if the prices gets clipped in they are going to be removing their cash out? Im not sure if this is definitely the case but thats the only conclusion I can come to unless its to do with my account or that specific selection.

Does anyone know if this is something that they are doing? I thought I'd highlight this for people that are going to be betting with them hoping the cash out to be available.