Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[jonthehammer]

For anyone interested in AntePost Flat racing, but not checking in on the Flat Racing threads during the Jumps season

”MOGUL comfortably wins the Group 1 Hong Kong Vase this morning, among plaudits for the horse from AOB.

Cut to between 12/1 and 20/1 for the Arc in October 2021.

Except for Betfred who have left the horse at 33/1. Opportunity to take a big price, in a race that the trainer will be desperate to return to next season having had to take all of his horses out (including Mogul) due to contaminated feed this October.

Not forgetting Mogul won the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris comfortably from In Swoop, a month before the Arc this season, and while Mogul had to miss the race, In Swoop went on to be beaten only a Neck in the Arc.”

Just checked now 16s, damn it

[Saxon Warrior]

Just checked now 16s, damn it

They made 3 late moves on French races in the Autumn, and didn’t change them until the next morning.

I was staggered they left the Arc market alone until late afternoon, I only noticed it myself around 4pm.
I hoped they would leave it overnight so we could pile in if we wanted too - no such luck.

[Pendil]

Oh yeah that's the thing you'd be 99% certain the yellow bellied Pirate would roll over if he had a few around him and he needed to be asked at all.


As i often have touched on the RP times and TS figures are a bit all over imo, i can only assume they factor weight very heavily in there TS figures as otherwise it doesn't stack as the novice chase was miles behind yet still given a figure higher than what the 2m hcap got given.

You have to factor weight. Say you have a handicap and a horse carrying 12 stone dead heated with a horse carrying 10stone. If you assess a speed rating of 148 for the 12 stone carrier then the 10 stone carrier gets a 120, 1point per lb lower.

The handicap yesterday was over 2ml 1/2f and was 16 seconds slower than standard, effectively 1 second per furlong slower than standard. The novices were running over 4 furlongs further so a comparative base time would be 20 seconds slower than standard. Fusil was 2.5 seconds than that. Then factor that Fusil carried 21lbs more and the figures work

[Outlaw]

You have to factor weight. Say you have a handicap and a horse carrying 12 stone dead heated with a horse carrying 10stone. If you assess a speed rating of 148 for the 12 stone carrier then the 10 stone carrier gets a 120, 1point per lb lower.

The handicap yesterday was over 2ml 1/2f and was 16 seconds slower than standard, effectively 1 second per furlong slower than standard. The novices were running over 4 furlongs further so a comparative base time would be 20 seconds slower than standard. Fusil was 2.5 seconds than that. Then factor that Fusil carried 21lbs more and the figures work

Not to start an argument but the RP times are worth feck all watch the races simultaneously in split screen with a sync watch even your phone and you will see bud. Of course you factor weight, but different platforms have different weight metrics hence Timeform are different and lots of punters do there own as a result. The standard times also very rarely show horses getting near standard on poor ground but on quick ground lots run to or quicker so they don't factor the ground to relevant conditions standard enough IMO on what they show anyway.

If you look at some of the RP standard times quite a few courses have standard times that are quicker or equal to course records, pulled them up on that before but no response.

[Arkle]

Lads is anyone else sitting thinking I’ve most of my bets done for Cheltenham par the handicaps I’m sitting thinking where to use my free bets these days

[Lobos]

Lads is anyone else sitting thinking I’ve most of my bets done for Cheltenham par the handicaps I’m sitting thinking where to use my free bets these days

Yep. Bar for a few I'm normally done by this time. The odds start to be cut silly time from now so I'll wait until the week itself now.

[Run4Home]

Anyone seeing an issue with the returns on early antepost bets with Hills today?

'Win any race' for example the early bets for me the return is the same as the stake.

Hoping its some technical error and not something odd on my account...

[VivaSteve]

Anyone seeing an issue with the returns on early antepost bets with Hills today?

'Win any race' for example the early bets for me the return is the same as the stake.

Hoping its some technical error and not something odd on my account...

Yes, my early bets are doing the same. The each way ones are showing returns as half the original stake.
Must be a glitch.

[Run4Home]

Yes, my early bets are doing the same. The each way ones are showing returns as half the original stake.
Must be a glitch.

Cheers - all good so once other people are seeing it.
My worry was a lot of mine were ' win any race' multi's which they stopped since then that it may be linked.

[ComplyOrDie]

SkyBet with a bit of blue and red around on various markets, wonder if they're preparing for NRNB, as they usually are the first company to do so.

[Big Bucks]

SkyBet with a bit of blue and red around on various markets, wonder if they're preparing for NRNB, as they usually are the first company to do so.

Do they not usually make a song and dance about it, publicise it like a countdown etc

[ComplyOrDie]

Do they not usually make a song and dance about it, publicise it like a countdown etc

Yeah, when they actually decide they want to. Doesn't mean they can't alter the markets up until that point. It may have absolutely nothing to do with it of course, but strange they've done multiple horses in markets. They could, of course, just be doing it to balance out their books.

[Lobos]

SkyBet with a bit of blue and red around on various markets, wonder if they're preparing for NRNB, as they usually are the first company to do so.

They've pushed Benie out to 11/1 for the Stayers so I very much doubt it. If that is her NRNB price then it's a lovely Xmas present!

[ComplyOrDie]

They've pushed Benie out to 11/1 for the Stayers so I very much doubt it. If that is her NRNB price then it's a lovely Xmas present!

As per my reply to BB, above, it could also be them balancing their books.

[somer1]

Can any peeps tell me why Skybet have pushed Column Of Fire out to 12/1 anyrace please?