Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[archie]

I agree with SW (and Kev) that it's all about the Galway Plate. He's rated 148 and been kept going through the shutdown.

Cheltenham will not be on their minds just yet. Remember that he's still a maiden over fences so the Marsh would be an option but you get the impression that he's going to be one of those that will be rated too highly to win a Festival handicap yet won't be good enough to win a championship race.

[Saxon Warrior]

I was thinking GALVIN is running today as a prep for the Galway Plate. A race his trainer has farmed in recent years.

Financially, the Galway Plate blows away all of the handicap chases at the Cheltenham Festival and is comparable with the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase in winning prize money.

Last season the figures for 1st prize are

Galway Plate £166K

Northern Trust Nov Hcap £39K
Ultima Hcap £61K
Brown Advisory Plate £61K
Kim Muir £41K

If Gordy could win one handicap this season out of those it would be the Galway Plate.

If he won that then he is more or less out of handicaps and in the Ryanair reckoning.

[Kevloaf]

I agree with SW (and Kev) that it's all about the Galway Plate. He's rated 148 and been kept going through the shutdown.

Cheltenham will not be on their minds just yet. Remember that he's still a maiden over fences so the Marsh would be an option but you get the impression that he's going to be one of those that will be rated too highly to win a Festival handicap yet won't be good enough to win a championship race.

Didn't actually click that he's still a maiden.

If he won the Galway Plate would that still be the case for Cheltenham 2021? Have any of the timings changed with regards to novice status?



I just had Ryanair in my head, (where I don't really expect him to be good enough) - but only because I always anticipate one VERY good horse in it. Only 1, mind.

[Saxon Warrior]

I think the Marsh and RSA aren’t too far off the Ryanair to win.

Samcro and Champ (together with those placed just behind them) were all around 160 horses at the Festival last season.

[Kevloaf]

I think the Marsh and RSA aren’t too far off the Ryanair to win.

Samcro and Champ (together with those placed just behind them) were all around 160 horses at the Festival last season.

What do you need to win a Ryanair. Hopefully 170 if we get a good animal in it, bar AP McCoy's win (161) the lowest has been (166).

Almost a stone and a half improvement needed for Galvin to win a Ryanair?


I'd be much more interested in him for the Marsh if he can run in it?!

[Eggs]

.....plenty of blue on Oddschecker for Fakir Doudairies in the Ryanair but not sure if it equates to a significant shift in its odds. Not much difference in its price for the Champion Chase.

[Lobos]

.....plenty of blue on Oddschecker for Fakir Doudairies in the Ryanair but not sure if it equates to a significant shift in its odds. Not much difference in its price for the Champion Chase.

Screams TWAR for me and have bet accordingly. He could go close in either race.

[Istabraq]

.....plenty of blue on Oddschecker for Fakir Doudairies in the Ryanair but not sure if it equates to a significant shift in its odds. Not much difference in its price for the Champion Chase.

Not sure any of the blue relates to recent price changes on Fakir Eggs, Oddschecker have been slow to lose the blue In recent months.
He is 24 on betfair for the QM (can still be backed at 25/1 in places) and 28 for the Ryanair.

[Kevloaf]

If Uhtred was trained by Gordon Elliott, I reckon he'd be an incredibly early shout for the Martin Pipe - I may have even started a thread on it...

Could still happen with Joseph, but not worthy of it's own thread.... yet as Gordon will have him covered.


CoD has had a guess at one too, for JP (I'll edit when I find it).

[OverTheLast]

On Uhtred I'm suprised a few on here fancy him for the Supreme. The listed bumper win was nice but his hurdles run in November wasn't a run that would make you think he would be good enough - albeit was a decent run but was only 5l ahead of Jon Snow who took 4 runs to break his maiden and the winner Front View is a again a decent yardstick but not anywhere near the top level.

[ComplyOrDie]

If Uhtred was trained by Gordon Elliott, I reckon he'd be an incredibly early shout for the Martin Pipe - I may have even started a thread on it...

Could still happen with Joseph, but not worthy of it's own thread.... yet as Gordon will have him covered.


CoD has had a guess at one too, for JP (I'll edit when I find it).

I also noted Uhtred as a potential for the Martin Pipe or Albert Bartlett too in the Supreme/Ballymore/Bartlett thread in May, but many were coming back that he looks a Supreme contender, which I can't see myself.

At this extremely early stage, himself and Coqolino are two that interest me, though anything can happen, as we all well know.

[Kevloaf]

I also noted Uhtred as a potential for the Martin Pipe or Albert Bartlett too in the Supreme/Ballymore/Bartlett thread in May, but many were coming back that he looks a Supreme contender, which I can't see myself.

At this extremely early stage, himself and Coqolino are two that interest me, though anything can happen, as we all well know.

Yeah, having already backed him I will wait for him to run now, as if the less likely scenario happens and he bolts up looking like a star (rather than he places in behind something better) on his reappearance, I wouldn't want to have cashed out 40/1.

However, the chances are I cash for a small loss after his reappearance

[Saxon Warrior]

I also noted Uhtred as a potential for the Martin Pipe or Albert Bartlett too in the Supreme/Ballymore/Bartlett thread in May, but many were coming back that he looks a Supreme contender, which I can't see myself.

At this extremely early stage, himself and Coqolino are two that interest me, though anything can happen, as we all well know.

I have Uhtred as an ANY RACE bet, principally thinking about the Martin Pipe which Joseph has a pretty good record in, with Early Doors coming 3rd and 1st in 2018/19 before Front View blew out in the race when strongly fancied in March. All for for J P McManus rather than Giggy, but the latter aren't averse to winning the race.

[ComplyOrDie]

I have Uhtred as an ANY RACE bet, principally thinking about the Martin Pipe which Joseph has a pretty good record in, with Early Doors coming 3rd and 1st in 2018/19 before Front View blew out in the race when strongly fancied in March. All for for J P McManus rather than Giggy, but the latter aren't averse to winning the race.

I think this is definitely the way to go about him in this case SW

[JackieMoon33]

I'm standing my ground from my original post a while back..... although it was 1st April so that may be a sign

Uhtred – Supreme Novices Hurdle
Although the focus will be on the festival bumper (even more so that Aintree and Punchestown will be cancelled), I’m going to look outside of that race for two novice hurdle selections. The first of those selections in Uhtred for the Supreme Novices hurdle. He did not come from the PTP field but won on debut in April last year coming from a long way off the pace to fly home and win narrowly. It was an impressive turn of foot that he went on to display in the Listed "Future Champions" INH Flat Race at Navan in December 2019. He travelled well and put the race to bed impressively, displaying the same turn of foot again to beat a reasonable field. That race has a nice roll of honour with previous winners including: Envoi Allen, Rapid Escape, Samcro, Death Duty and Don Cossack. Although most Gigginstown horses come from the PTP scene and are future chasers, Uhtred seems to possess real pace and could be similar to Abacadabras in being a genuine 2 mile contender. He’s sired by Fame And Glory who I really like as well.