2022 Mares Chase

[jack1092]

Concertista was a better hurdler than Elimay has ever been, but for me that 1/2l form with Colreevy elevates her to a totally different level chasing, and Concertista has to improve for fences to beat her IMO anyway. 8/1 too big.

[FinalFurlong91]

Concertista was a better hurdler than Elimay has ever been, but for me that 1/2l form with Colreevy elevates her to a totally different level chasing, and Concertista has to improve for fences to beat her IMO anyway. 8/1 too big.

Agreed

id say she'd have beaten colreevy with a better ride too

Colreevy was jumping right into elimay, walsh shouldve pulled her back a little and taken the rail when colreevy moved off

Concertista looked far from a natural over a fence, not for me at the prices at all

[riccirich]

Might be a slightly controversial view but is elimay being overrated a bit because of colreevy winning at punchestown?

colreevy's form up until punchestown was definitely solid, but not many were giving her much of a chance in that race, and we know that on occasion horses can be flattered by punchestown form at the end of a season.

I would agree with the point that concertista was better than elimay ever was over hurdles, and having just made a successful chasing debut against a horse who already had two chase starts and a last time out win, I think the 10/1 that concertista was originally was a much better price than the 8/1 that people are taking now for elimay on the back of a very poor run.

[Spectre]

Might be a slightly controversial view but is elimay being overrated a bit because of colreevy winning at punchestown?

colreevy's form up until punchestown was definitely solid, but not many were giving her much of a chance in that race, and we know that on occasion horses can be flattered by punchestown form at the end of a season.

I would agree with the point that concertista was better than elimay ever was over hurdles, and having just made a successful chasing debut against a horse who already had two chase starts and a last time out win, I think the 10/1 that concertista was originally was a much better price than the 8/1 that people are taking now for elimay on the back of a very poor run.

If I'm honest, this has been nagging away at me for a while now. I've taken a strong position on Elimay, but as time has gone on I've begun to question the level of form, and thought it could have been over-rated.

Was Elimay just the best (or 2nd best), of a very limited number of Mares Chase contenders last season? Her balance of form is held up by her 2nd to Allaho at Thurles, and on reflection, that race looked like Willie had control and was able to just tick Allaho over.

I also then remember thinking before the Festival that Colreevy would have been an intresting contender for the Ryanair, and I thought she could run a big race. With that thinking at the time then Colreevy had to be a tough nut to crack in the Mares Chase, and perhaps I've just been trying to find reasons why Elimay will be beaten. Colreevy's final run in the Punchestown Champion Novice Chase can't be used as a reason to mark the level of performance down, but I'm okay with the line of thinking that she may have beaten horses that were over the top, although she herself had a war with Elimay at the Festival. Either way I'm usually happy to remove late season races as reliable guides.

The more I think about it though her overall profile is of a horse that appears to only do enough though. She needs to be up there, but I'm not sure you want her getting to the front or into a battle too early. And she sets a standard that none of the new contenders have yet reached. Realistically there's only Concertista, and perhaps Gin On Lime that could get to her level, and it's probably Concertista I'd be most worried about for her. But Concertista lacks chasing experience and her jumping will need to improve.

My biggest concern is her recent run at Aintree though. It was poor and out of character. In every race she's had since 2018 she's either won or been a very close second, barring being beaten in the Mares Hurdle itself in 2019. Something felt amiss to me. That's not her level of form, and on song she's have put that race away with ease. She has been up to speed on seasonal debut previously so I can't imagine that's a valid reason. They've put it down to travelling for two weekends running, and maybe that's right, but she's presumably not shown an issue travelling before, so it worries me that the problem was something else undetected. Her next run needs to be a good one I think.

[Quevega]

If I'm honest, this has been nagging away at me for a while now. I've taken a strong position on Elimay, but as time has gone on I've begun to question the level of form, and thought it could have been over-rated.

Was Elimay just the best (or 2nd best), of a very limited number of Mares Chase contenders last season? Her balance of form is held up by her 2nd to Allaho at Thurles, and on reflection, that race looked like Willie had control and was able to just tick Allaho over.

I also then remember thinking before the Festival that Colreevy would have been an intresting contender for the Ryanair, and I thought she could run a big race. With that thinking at the time then Colreevy had to be a tough nut to crack in the Mares Chase, and perhaps I've just been trying to find reasons why Elimay will be beaten. Colreevy's final run in the Punchestown Champion Novice Chase can't be used as a reason to mark the level of performance down, but I'm okay with the line of thinking that she may have beaten horses that were over the top, although she herself had a war with Elimay at the Festival. Either way I'm usually happy to remove late season races as reliable guides.

The more I think about it though her overall profile is of a horse that appears to only do enough though. She needs to be up there, but I'm not sure you want her getting to the front or into a battle too early. And she sets a standard that none of the new contenders have yet reached. Realistically there's only Concertista, and perhaps Gin On Lime that could get to her level, and it's probably Concertista I'd be most worried about for her. But Concertista lacks chasing experience and her jumping will need to improve.

My biggest concern is her recent run at Aintree though. It was poor and out of character. In every race she's had since 2018 she's either won or been a very close second, barring being beaten in the Mares Hurdle itself in 2019. Something felt amiss to me. That's not her level of form, and on song she's have put that race away with ease. She has been up to speed on seasonal debut previously so I can't imagine that's a valid reason. They've put it down to travelling for two weekends running, and maybe that's right, but she's presumably not shown an issue travelling before, so it worries me that the problem was something else undetected. Her next run needs to be a good one I think.

Ryanair ???
Think you're getting confused.

[Spectre]

Ryanair ???
Think you're getting confused.

Yes apologies, I meant the Marsh.

[Rooster Booster]

No Silver Forever tomorrow at Warwick but kapard is coming over by the looks. I appreciate she isn’t likely to be on many peoples radars (and on the surface she has a lot to find)but she might be if she wins this well. At least worth a watch imo. Mt leinster to some extent defeated himself last time but it was still a decent effort and she has definitely improved for a fence imo and will surely improve again for a step up in trip (on run style and breeding). FYI only hills have her listed at 33s as far as I can see. She might be one to do a request a bet on. I asked for loads last year and I think I am treading on dangerous grounds.

[charlie]

No Silver Forever tomorrow at Warwick but kapard is coming over by the looks. I appreciate she isn’t likely to be on many peoples radars (and on the surface she has a lot to find)but she might be if she wins this well. At least worth a watch imo. Mt leinster to some extent defeated himself last time but it was still a decent effort and she has definitely improved for a fence imo and will surely improve again for a step up in trip (on run style and breeding). FYI only hills have her listed at 33s as far as I can see. She might be one to do a request a bet on. I asked for loads last year and I think I am treading on dangerous grounds.

Kapard is at Cheltenham now. They are expecting her to win tomorrow so I’ve taken 3/1 and added @ 33/1 for this.

[Rooster Booster]

Kapard is at Cheltenham now. They are expecting her to win tomorrow so I’ve taken 3/1 and added @ 33/1 for this.

Great news thanks Charlie

[BigChaang]

I thought that was a good debut from Concertista vs race fit rivals over a sub optimal trip. Not perfect, but encouraging. Stepping stones people, stepping stones....

I would agree Charlie , i backed Concertista for the mares hdl , thinking with no Black Tears next year , she'd be a shoe in .
But of course this is willie mullins . ..... Anyhow , onwards and upwards as they say .
I 've been holding off backing Elimay , so Concertista is a similar price now , to what Elimay was.
Probably wait to see Concertista's next run before deciding.But she's already in a few multi's.

[BigChaang]

Kapard is at Cheltenham now. They are expecting her to win tomorrow so I’ve taken 3/1 and added @ 33/1 for this.

Still showing Kapard in the 2-00 at warwick today on the r.post card. ?? .

[charlie]

Still showing Kapard in the 2-00 at warwick today on the r.post card. ?? .

Yeh runs at Warwick but was in the stables at Cheltenham for a bit. Came over with some of the sales lot.

[BigChaang]

I see , Thank's, sorry if i confused things .

[Lbur4288]

Glancing Queen won that easily enough, into 10/1 in places for this now.

[FinalFurlong91]

Pretty impressive from the glancing Queen

Hopefully we get to see her against Annie mc and the like to see how good she is