If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
We're looking to upgrade the 'hosting CPU' so I've set up a crowdfunding project.
I would love it if you could donate using the link below to access my project page. Any contribution large or small will be hugely appreciated. Thank you.
Kevloaf @ Fat Jockey
2 of 2<>
Fat Jockey Patrons
HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!
I think Tornado Flyer is a much, much, much better bet than Protektorat...
Al Boum Photo at 10/1 and Minella Indo at 8/1 are much better bets than either though IMO
Personally think this could be a year when something like, Protekorat, Chantry House, Galvin, Eklat De Rire or Fiddlerontheorrf could win. I've touched on this before, but horses pretty much are in their prime when they are having their 3rd run at Cheltenham, which a few of these will be on, and this is when you will often see a best performance. IMO at least two of these will place, and in my mind I won't have Minella Indo or Al Boum Photo placing.
I personally think A Plus Tard will certainly be in the top three, then it will be two Gold Cup newbies, as it's often the way.
Personally think this could be a year when something like, Protekorat, Chantry House, Galvin, Eklat De Rire or Fiddlerontheorrf could win. I've touched on this before, but horses pretty much are in their prime when they are having their 3rd run at Cheltenham, which a few of these will be on, and this is when you will often see a best performance. IMO at least two of these will place, and in my mind I won't have Minella Indo or Al Boum Photo placing.
I personally think A Plus Tard will certainly be in the top three, then it will be two Gold Cup newbies, as it's often the way.
Should be in the past it range with Minella Indo...
I do see your point though. A lot of horses in the GC have one good performance in the race and that's it. So I can see the logic with going with the ones new to the race and historical trends also support it.
I've not had a bet in this race since Monkfish was declared out for the season and usually just have a small bet on the day for interest.
Hopefully Monkfish is back in top form next year, we have GDC winning the RSA well and we have a proper clash in this.
Should be in the past it range with Minella Indo...
I do see your point though. A lot of horses in the GC have one good performance in the race and that's it. So I can see the logic with going with the ones new to the race and historical trends also support it.
I've not had a bet in this race since Monkfish was declared out for the season and usually just have a small bet on the day for interest.
Hopefully Monkfish is back in top form next year, we have GDC winning the RSA well and we have a proper clash in this.
If Monkfish is back next year, is he not in the 'past it range' as well?
If that's where Galvin and Minella Indo are?
What's the difference?
I don't understand the 'one good performance' either, he's won a NH Chase.... so it'd be two?
You need to talk me through your logic (which may well be valid) I just don't really see what point you're making right now, sorry.
If Monkfish is back next year, is he not in the 'past it range' as well?
If that's where Galvin and Minella Indo are?
What's the difference?
I don't understand the 'one good performance' either, he's won a NH Chase.... so it'd be two?
You need to talk me through your logic (which may well be valid) I just don't really see what point you're making right now, sorry.
Monkfish has ran at 2 festivals. I was commenting on the person who said most horses hit their prime on their 3rd run at the festival.
The ... after the Minella Indo comment should have signified I don't particulary agree with the comment about Galvin or Minella Indo being past it just because they've already had 3 festival runs (sorry its not very clear).
The one good performance is in regards to the Gold Cup. Most horses in their career have a standout performance in the Gold Cup (usually first time in the race) and regress the next time round.
How many horses improve for their second time round in the Gold Cup? On ratings ABP's second run was worse than his first but 3rd was better than the 2nd run. Looking at the last 10 running and RPRs for those placing, Djakadam improved 1 pound on his 2nd run in the Gold Cup, Native River improved 9 pounds and Anibale Fly improved 5 pounds. None of the others who placed either ran in the race the next year or had an improved rating the next year in the race, suggesting it is more common for a horse to run its best race first time in the Gold Cup and not next time round. Its a negative for Minella Indo and APT, though they don't particularly need to improve to win the race again, but is a positive for horses like Galvin.
Kauto Star saved his best festival performance for his 3rd Gold cup and his fourth festival appearance....but then he was Kauto Star ....which probably supports the points folks are making rather than detracts from it....I guess if you were a supporter of this line of thinking you’d say look how good you need to be to defy this trend.
How many horses improve for their second time round in the Gold Cup? Its a negative for Minella Indo and APT, though they don't particularly need to improve to win the race again, but is a positive for horses like Galvin.
I think this year will be different with that trend - APT breaking it. Since his Gold Cup run last year, both his jumping and travelling have been taken to another level, 2 higher posted ORs since the Gold Cup run resultant & I think he'll improve on that again in March. He's the one to beat IMO & justified favourite. Who out of the likes of Protektorat/Chantry House/Tornado Flyer/Eklat De Rire can follow him home in behind Galvin/Indo/ABP I'm not sure about...
I think this year will be different with that trend - APT breaking it. Since his Gold Cup run last year, both his jumping and travelling have been taken to another level, 2 higher posted ORs since the Gold Cup run resultant & I think he'll improve on that again in March. He's the one to beat IMO & justified favourite. Who out of the likes of Protektorat/Chantry House/Tornado Flyer/Eklat De Rire can follow him home in behind Galvin/Indo/ABP I'm not sure about...
The point is though history has proven time and time again that it is incredibly difficult to maintain that really high level for long. These races are ultra competitive (even in years that aren’t considered vintage)and take an awful lot out of horses and there are always fresher younger horses ensuring even a small drop in performance is punished.
I guarantee Galvin has never had to work as hard as he did when defeating APT. Imagine having to put that sort of effort in every time he runs, sooner or later that will take its toll on a horse. APT is no Kauto Star and so it will happen to him sooner or later and his backers will be hoping he has at least one more monster performance in him but history tells us he may well not do. As I see it that’s the point people are making and it’s not an unreasonable one imo.
In the last 4 years there have been some trends broken for this race (and this coming from someone who loves a trend/stat).
1. Horses returning to the Gold Cup who ran in it previously rarely come back and win it - Native River 2018
2. Willie Mullins had never won a Gold Cup (this is obviously a weak one, as suggestion that one of, if not the, greatest festival trainer we've seen can't win a Gold Cup is a little bit ludicrous, but nevertheless, trend broken) - Al Boum Photo 2019
3. Horses rarely return to retain a Gold Cup the following season - Al Boum Photo 2020
Although I will use trends and stats in a debate over certain horses and do realise that, over the past two/three seasons at least I have come to my own realisation that a trend is only a trend until it is broken, and almost everything and anything can be broken, especially in horse racing.
The point is though history has proven time and time again that it is incredibly difficult to maintain that really high level for long. These races are ultra competitive (even in years that aren’t considered vintage)and take an awful lot out of horses and there are always fresher younger horses ensuring even a small drop in performance is punished.
Agree it's a fair point & history tells us very few do repeat (bar the exceptional). When we take this year's race in to context though - who are the "fresher younger horses" that could finish ahead of APT realistically? IMO the likeliest to finish nearest to him are those who are the same age or older & have got the same sort of mileage on the clock (Galvin 8yo & Minella Indo 9yo).
The younger horses in the race - Chantry House 7yo & Protektorat 7yo both have at least 10lb to find on ratings & although not out of the question come March, that's a lot to find against a horse who's jumping this season since the GC has visibly been far better.
ABP & Champ are 10yos. Next on the list are Tornado Flyer, Royal Pagaille & Fiddlerontheroof who are all 8yos like APT and again on ratings have it all to do. Then it's another 10yo Lostintranslation.
I was trying to find an angle into this earlier in the season with Imperial Aura who for his age is relatively lightly raced but has run like a dog throughout & has limited appeal to even get round on current evidence.
Eklat De Rire is again a lightly raced 8yo but has mountains to find on ratings vs APT and is seemingly held.
So although that trend is proven, the main take I have on this year's Gold Cup is that all of APT's main opponents are the same age or older & he goes there having already improved on last year's GC run with his jumping which I think will edge him ahead...
We process personal data about users of our site, through the use of cookies and other technologies, to deliver our services, personalize advertising, and to analyze site activity. We may share certain information about our users with our advertising and analytics partners. For additional details, refer to our Privacy Policy.
By clicking "I AGREE" below, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our personal data processing and cookie practices as described therein. You also acknowledge that this forum may be hosted outside your country and you consent to the collection, storage, and processing of your data in the country where this forum is hosted.
Tweet
Comment