2022 Gold Cup

[Lobos]

Chantry house never looked comfortable at any point and i can see the santini comparison.

Better left handed me thinks. Get him in the Ryanair.

[Lobos]

Think its fairly safe to say minella indo won't be wearing cheekpieces again

Though the speed with which he went backwards would worry me that he was feeling something

Terrible decision sending him to Kempton. What were they thinking ??!! Might have messed him up for the rest of the season now.

[charlie]

Galvin wins doesn't he ?

I myself don't think he's near APT's level, but we'll see on Tuesday won't we. I think he'll cruise into the race (a bit like he did v Frodon) and then just get completely outclassed by better animals. A shake up would be great though, so if he takes a significant step forward and wins or goes close, then it would be good for the race too.

[Exar Essay]

I wouldn't worry and have backed him off the back of that because I'm confident the early speed is exactly what he wouldn't have wanted. Expending lots of energy to keep up with that pace made going out like a light highly probable, which is exactly what happened.

Got to be a worry though the way he bounced between Frodon and the pack? Just wouldn’t settle. With Frodon, that’s him; sometimes his front running works, sometimes it doesn’t. But you’re very unlikely to win the way MI ran today. No need either. As Ruby said after the first, the going made it more of a stamina test and front running wasn’t going to work.

I don’t know too much about the impact of cheek pieces, but might that’ve been the cause?

[charlie]

Better left handed me thinks. Get him in the Ryanair.

That would be a terrible decision by connections IMO. Chantry House is taken off his feet whenever he encounters any sort of pace. Chasing Allaho around Cheltenham over 2m5f would be exactly what he doesn't want IMO.

[MadeinJapan]

Where to start with that

APT wins this from what I’ve seen on all runnings so far this season, today confirmed it for me. After trying to get big priced “value” away from him & failing miserably I’ve given in to the fact he wins this, the challenge is trying to get some decent roll ups in the book so not taking 3/1 this far out. Asterion Forlonge was a big loser for me today on that front - doubled him with APT for the main one.

[Zachx02]

Al Boum Photo E/W at 20/1 sticks out like a sore thumb imo

[Carnage at Taunton]

That would be a terrible decision by connections IMO. Chantry House is taken off his feet whenever he encounters any sort of pace. Chasing Allaho around Cheltenham over 2m5f would be exactly what he doesn't want IMO.

They won’t be going back in distance I agree, he’s an out and out stayer for me. I’m putting a line through that, same with the horse that won the Gold Cup not so long ago. Thought MI was totally the wrong tactics, and CH just never went a yard, too bad to be true.
Will be keeping a close eye on prices for these two.

[charlie]

Be interesting to see how Janadil gets on vs APT as JP will want a GC runner, and CH looks poor. If Janadil doesn't step up, you wonder who the JP Gold Cup horse would be. Champ certainly becomes more likely, and a step up could be on the cards for Fakir.

[Alexmilton]

Al Boum Photo E/W at 20/1 sticks out like a sore thumb imo

This is the only value bet left imo

[Run4Home]

Al Boum Photo E/W at 20/1 sticks out like a sore thumb imo

Yeh beginning to look like it now.

[ComplyOrDie]

Added Melon 66/1 E/W for the Gold Cup.
For the first time in his career he failed to place in a Cheltenham Festival last season. The excuse was he was never travelling, and it did appear to be the case. Prior to that run though he had run a couple of solid enough races, firstly in the Savills Chase at Christmas (which he's entered in again this year) and then finshing last of 5 in the PP Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival. Despite the last of 5 finish it's worth noting he was only 8 3/4 lengths behind the winner and only 2 lengths behind eventual Gold Cup winner, Minella Indo. His run in the Savills Chase had him just 2 lengths behind winner A Plus Tard, who ended up finishing 2nd in the Gold Cup behind Minella Indo, so for me the form has a solid feel about it. By the time he tried 3m again (after the Ryanair run), at the Punchestown Festival, he had already had a fairly long season, and his jockey wasn't happy with how he was travelling so was pulled up.

He's made a nice start to the season this time around, finishing 3rd in the John Durkan behind Allaho, where he was staying on.

I'm hoping for a big run in the Savills again, and then maybe the PP Gold Cup at the DRF again, although I'd be quite happy if he skipped this and went straight to the festival off the back of the Savills Chase run, provided it was a decent enough performance.

All in all, I think Melon is overpriced for this race, and it's not as if Willie has an abundance of other options.

From my diary post.

I'm expecting a decent run from Melon on Tuesday in the Savills Chase and have backed him accordingly for it.

Should he show up with a decent performance the 66's will be long gone.

As it happens I've just cashed the single in for the Gold Cup because of landing him in a decent roll up so no longer need the single.

[Magpie]

I’m willing to make allowances for MI, seems to come on a lot in spring weather, Kempton does not suit at all, and think 10/1 ew is a reasonable bet. We will see

[Lobos]

This is the only value bet left imo

I'd add Galvin into that bracket. The 20/1 could look very, very nice after the Savilles

[Carnage at Taunton]

Be interesting to see how Janadil gets on vs APT as JP will want a GC runner, and CH looks poor. If Janadil doesn't step up, you wonder who the JP Gold Cup horse would be. Champ certainly becomes more likely, and a step up could be on the cards for Fakir.

Ch looked poor yesterday, but he’s been far better.
Champ is a far better hurdler than chaser.
I expect to see CH in this and Champ in the stayers hurdle.
I would be very interested in what Hendo says re CH and yesterday.