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Still 25/1 with 365 which is very fair. The straight double (if you could do it which you obviously can’t) wouldn’t even pay that.
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Indo has always been a pretty keen traveller when he is in top formOriginally posted by Lobos View Post
If he turns up anywhere near his gold cup level he's the one to beat for me
If he doesn't then hopefully he gets pushed to 8/1 for March and il get my king George money back plus more at the festivalComment
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Could be a nice related double of whatever you think will beat him with APT for the Gold Cup. He's sure to shorten should MI get beatenOriginally posted by Lobos View PostComment
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Think you are right. I can see Frodon beating MI again on a track I think suits him better than the Gold Cup winner.Originally posted by Lobos View Post
Best of luck. I have been known to get it wrong now and again
Think Frodon could well win it again, CH the big danger for me.
I do accept of course that MI has never ran at Kempton so may get proved wrong, but to me he looks the type that may struggle a tad there.
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Agreed. Everyone should be taking the 25/1 as mathematically it's the right thing to do.Originally posted by Exar Essay View Post
He may lose, or you may not think he'll win, but 25/1 is the wrong price and you'd be a winner betting with that edge in the long run, imo.
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This is where I’m at with it to be fair. Wouldn’t fancy him for the race, but it’s a good price, and obviously he CAN win.Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View PostComment
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Whilst I fully agree with the principle, I always wonder how many of these you have to do before this edge makes sense. For anyone who does a book on any race it doesn't matter, but if you just bet on one/two horses in any given race do you still have this edge? I'm not convinced you do because other horses will be similarly overpriced so you could easily miss out on the one that does come in. Does that make sense?Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View PostComment
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….Minella Indo KG/GC also 25-1 with Hills (27-1 with boost if anybody wants to pinch a few points).Originally posted by Exar Essay View Post
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The double at 4/1 and 5/1 pays 29/1 so 25/1 isn’t a gift from the racing Gods but it’s about as close to value as they offer these days.Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
I know you can’t play the related double but it wasn’t that long ago a 29/1 double would be 33/1 or bigger as a special…Comment
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It was 33/1 two days ago.Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
The manual double is likely to be 17.5/1, 20/1 at best, imo.
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Is the 4/1 and 5/1 Oddschecker day Sky offer a lie ?Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
Wouldn’t be a shock, they’ve had some issues recently…Comment
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Not following you on that one. I don't think it matters whether you are creating a book or being very selective.Originally posted by Odin View Post
It will likely be a losing bet but it's still a great bet at the prices and if you only ever bet when the odds were this much in your favour, you would be a winning punter over time. That's how I see it anyway.
I think Minella Indo will have an SP of no bigger than 3/1. If he wins the KG he'll be the GC favourite at a maximum of 3/1, imo. That makes the double 15/1. Add in a little uncertainty because of ante post and I still think it's a really good bet.
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It isn't a lie but you can't do that double, so it's a myth rather than a lie.Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
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Yep I hear what you're saying - and agree on both SP and future GC price. The point was more that I worry (from a personal perspective) that if I put a bet on when I'm not confident that the horse will win (my situation with MI) at the moment, it's unclear to me where to draw the line as I'm generally not great at predicting prices!Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
Not following you on that one. I don't think it matters whether you are creating a book or being very selective.
It will likely be a losing bet but it's still a great bet at the prices and if you only ever bet when the odds were this much in your favour, you would be a winning punter over time. That's how I see it anyway.
I think Minella Indo will have an SP of no bigger than 3/1. If he wins the KG he'll be the GC favourite at a maximum of 3/1, imo. That makes the double 15/1. Add in a little uncertainty because of ante post and I still think it's a really good bet.
I think, having thought about it more, I like to bet when I believe I have a price and 'knowledge' edge (e.g. I'd take this bet if I thought MI was going to win KG and because the price is good), whereas your suggestion of betting only when you see a price edge in this scenario spooks me a bit because it feels like betting blind (even if the odds are in our favour). I think it's two slightly different approaches which is why I originally queried. Good luck though, I may yet join you but need to look at the race in more detail first
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I've taken the 25/1 also. Agree it's the percentage call. Wins the KG and has to be favourite for the GC.
I've a slight concern for the antepost part of the KG, but the owners quotes on the previous page sound like it's the plan.
I wouldn't rule out him out being a slightly bigger price on the day of the KG either tbh. Clan and Frodon likely to be fairly popular?Comment
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