2022 Gold Cup

[Silverbirch]

So, has Eklat De Rire got to put away Ontheropes on Saturday to keep up his Gold Cup credentials? (Ground depending of course, needs more rain as it stands) The betting suggests OTR is slight favourite.

[Stormez]

So, has Eklat De Rire got to put away Ontheropes on Saturday to keep up his Gold Cup credentials? (Ground depending of course, needs more rain as it stands) The betting suggests OTR is slight favourite.

I think he should if he’s going to end up a Gold Cup horse as a lot of us think he is.

[Lobos]

So, has Eklat De Rire got to put away Ontheropes on Saturday to keep up his Gold Cup credentials? (Ground depending of course, needs more rain as it stands) The betting suggests OTR is slight favourite.

Hopefully both of them will be worthy of a place. OTR does have a good 3lb claimer on so that could make the difference. Both need rain and it looks like they'll get plenty so that shouldn't be an excuse. Great race on prospect. Fiddlerontheroof may topple both of them imo.

[TiggerRoll]

Hopefully both of them will be worthy of a place. OTR does have a good 3lb claimer on so that could make the difference. Both need rain and it looks like they'll get plenty so that shouldn't be an excuse. Great race on prospect. Fiddlerontheroof may topple both of them imo.

The claim for O’Keefe is an error. He’s ridden loads more winners than the requirement and it’s gradually being removed from the race cards.

I struggle to understand the discrepancy between OTR and EDR for the Gold Cup given they’re both running here off a similar mark and the market has them equal. They have similar progressive profiles (albeit EDR more so) and Willie has followed the same route with Total Recall previously.

I’ve backed OTR on the exchange with a view to laying off if the market corrects beforehand or he goes on to run a big race tomorrow - ideally either pulling clear or winning himself.

[Lobos]

Thanks for the claimer info. Wasn't aware of that. Already got roll up on OTR with PP Gold Cup winner so just thought it could have been a little bit of an advantage for the double to come up trumps !

[TiggerRoll]

I was thinking similar and rubbing my hands that he might have fallen under the UK winners level to lose the claim - which is higher than over the sea but unfortunately not quite high enough!

[ToniC]

I struggle to understand the discrepancy between OTR and EDR for the Gold Cup given they’re both running here off a similar mark and the market has them equal. They have similar progressive profiles (albeit EDR more so) and Willie has followed the same route with Total Recall previously.

Total recall wasn’t a novice whereas OTR is so probably to do with likelihood of target. If EDR is good enough then there’s pretty much no doubt about his target whereas OTR has options open to him

[TiggerRoll]

Total recall wasn’t a novice whereas OTR is so probably to do with likelihood of target. If EDR is good enough then there’s pretty much no doubt about his target whereas OTR has options open to him

Yeah very fair point. I don’t think Willie has much obvious depth to the Gold Cup which makes me think it’s more of a possibility than may usually be the case. Especially so given he’s got a few more runs over fences than might usually be the case for a novice. In my head I have NHC, GC then BANC as the likely order of targets but if he goes on to run well here / in any big handicap and earns a mark 160+ those first two soon become interchangeable for me.

The more I think, the less the BANC seems a suitable option if he’s proven his stamina over further with Willie also having numerous credible runners for that.

[Istabraq]

It’s rarely a smart idea for a novice to go for a championship race, I appreciate he’s a second season novice so has reasonable experience but if he wasn’t good enough to get his head in front last season against fellow novices I’m not sure why anyone would think he’d be capable of taking on the best open chasers around and coming out on top…

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Total recall wasn’t a novice whereas OTR is so probably to do with likelihood of target. If EDR is good enough then there’s pretty much no doubt about his target whereas OTR has options open to him

For those of us on OTR for the NHC, what kind of result would work best? If he wins he surely goes GC not NHC. So, I guess we want a slow run race with him getting outpaced at the end so they go down the stamina route?

[TiggerRoll]

It’s rarely a smart idea for a novice to go for a championship race, I appreciate he’s a second season novice so has reasonable experience but if he wasn’t good enough to get his head in front last season against fellow novices I’m not sure why anyone would think he’d be capable of taking on the best open chasers around and coming out on top…

Saturday will tell us a lot more on that front. The main play for me is getting him on side at 100+ in the expectation of a good run where that price is likely to soon disappear. You’d think he has to at least come down to similar to Eklat’s level if he beats him?

[ToniC]

For those of us on OTR for the NHC, what kind of result would work best? If he wins he surely goes GC not NHC. So, I guess we want a slow run race with him getting outpaced at the end so they go down the stamina route?

Staying on for a place at the end should do it ok yeah. That with EDR winning be nice!

[Istabraq]

Saturday will tell us a lot more on that front.

You say that there’s no Minella Indo, A Plus Tard or Envoi Allen to take on, the Hennessy is not the race it once was and rarely produces a legitimate Gold Cup contender, Native River aside I can’t remember one since Bobs Worth.
Ultimately it’s a handicap, winning it getting weight from the likes of Brahma Bull and Anamix wouldn’t scream Gold Cup winner for me…

[Lobos]

It’s rarely a smart idea for a novice to go for a championship race, I appreciate he’s a second season novice so has reasonable experience but if he wasn’t good enough to get his head in front last season against fellow novices I’m not sure why anyone would think he’d be capable of taking on the best open chasers around and coming out on top…

Was held up with injury last season though wasn't he ? Simply going for the Hennessy off a relatively big weight should tell everyone that he must be well thought of by Connections.

[TiggerRoll]

You say that there’s no Minella Indo, A Plus Tard or Envoi Allen to take on, the Hennessy is not the race it once was and rarely produces a legitimate Gold Cup contender, Native River aside I can’t remember one since Bobs Worth.
Ultimately it’s a handicap, winning it getting weight from the likes of Brahma Bull and Anamix wouldn’t scream Gold Cup winner for me…

I enjoy these different views hugely and it’s a great part of the forum. Fully agree with what you’re saying about the overall quality of the race but I still think that he’ll shorten significantly with a good run and that’s all I’m looking for at this stage.

Yes Al Boum Photo is a dual winner but does anyone expect him to come back and win? The next contender from the yard is Castlebawn West who’s not streets clear of Ontheropes for me. There’s a surprising dearth of viable options for the yard (unless I’ve overlooked something which is highly possible).