2022 Gold Cup

[charlie]

Lot better reasoning.
Obviously more details and less nothing than what I originally responded too.
I agree with the price. But you could say that about 98% of horses by this time of the season. It’s an easy throw in during a debate but a separate issue to what’s been discussed just now.
I don’t agree with the Yeats comments as he clearly produces stayers. Which was my only point. And less of a guess than yours.
And finally the 2 races he won when another horse fell contained other horses. And if he was out of his comfort zone at aintree then they must have been near death.

it’s unfair on him to downplay those wins IMO
although I did originally.
but we all have to change our minds sometimes, and admit we’re wrong. Like you with honeysuckle who didn’t have the pace and couldn’t jump at one point.

Im not a massive fan myself but not cos I don’t think he’ll stay or was lucky to win his graded races at the festivals. And definitely not cos Nicky thinks champ is number one.

im not a massive fan cos of the price he was and is.
I kind of ignored him originally partly cos of the falls also but have since watched the races several times and noted the subsequent form and now give him more credit than that. Which is why I backed at 16-1 which is probably right on the button of fair.

16/1 is fine tbf, although I think Galvin at 20/1 is a better bet than Chantry House at 10/1, if I had to back one of the horses we've seen already.

Yeats produces some good staying chasers, but their overall calibre at the top level is questionable, evidenced by Chantry House being the highest rated chaser Yeats's has produced. Obviously, thats not reason enough to start opposing him, but it's something I'm mindful of (would be fair to counter with 'Gold Cup winners have been by horses that haven't produced much', Coneygree being a good recent example by Karinga Bay).

First Flooring Porter and now Honeysuckle. You know this is the GC thread right?

Perhaps it is unfair to downplay his wins. I take no issue with forming strong opinions and being wrong, or altering my opinions when I'm wrong. I'll happily concede, having watched all his races back, that I'm probably wrong about Chantry House not staying. I might even be spectacularly wrong Q, you'll enjoy that. He's gone from a 'non stayer' to a complete boat' in less than 24 hours, jelly tots AOTS.

Chantry House could improve and reach GC calibre, but my issue with him from his novice days is he looks to run in snatches when met with a proper championship race pace.Like him or loathe him, I think thats fair based on what we've seen to date. At Cheltenham as they came out of the back straight the commentator said exactly what we were all thinking - 'Chantry House has been out of his comfort zone for half a mile'. At Aintree he's getting slaps down his neck and niggled when the front two aren't as they approach 4 out. I don't think he'd have won at Aintree, but that doesn't really matter, my wider point with a view to the GC is that he's going to have to improve chunks not to encounter the same issues vs much better horses, and he's not priced up now to account for the improvement that will be needed.

[Topofthegame2021]

16/1 is fine tbf, although I think Galvin at 20/1 is a better bet than Chantry House at 10/1, if I had to back one of the horses we've seen already.

Yeats produces some good staying chasers, but their overall calibre at the top level is questionable, evidenced by Chantry House being the highest rated chaser Yeats's has produced. Obviously, thats not reason enough to start opposing him, but it's something I'm mindful of (would be fair to counter with 'Gold Cup winners have been by horses that haven't produced much', Coneygree being a good recent example by Karinga Bay).

First Flooring Porter and now Honeysuckle. You know this is the GC thread right?

Perhaps it is unfair to downplay his wins. I take no issue with forming strong opinions and being wrong, or altering my opinions when I'm wrong. I'll happily concede, having watched all his races back, that I'm probably wrong about Chantry House not staying. I might even be spectacularly wrong Q, you'll enjoy that. He's gone from a 'non stayer' to a complete boat' in less than 24 hours, jelly tots AOTS.

Chantry House could improve and reach GC calibre, but my issue with him from his novice days is he looks to run in snatches when met with a proper championship race pace.Like him or loathe him, I think thats fair based on what we've seen to date. At Cheltenham as they came out of the back straight the commentator said exactly what we were all thinking - 'Chantry House has been out of his comfort zone for half a mile'. At Aintree he's getting slaps down his neck and niggled when the front two aren't as they approach 4 out. I don't think he'd have won at Aintree, but that doesn't really matter, my wider point with a view to the GC is that he's going to have to improve chunks not to encounter the same issues vs much better horses, and he's not priced up now to account for the improvement that will be needed.

I’m personally a massive fan of Chantry House for the Gold Cup and think he has a massive chance this season. Anyone who has had a look over my book would agree with that!

I thought he won both his grade ones by showing great staying ability in races that looked to be set at a brisk pace. He picked up the pieces I’d admit, but that was because he stayed so well. Therefore I’ve got no issues in thinking he won’t stay the GC trip.

The question is, would I back him now at 9/1 or whatever his shortest is? And the short answer is No. He’s become shorter than what he deserves to be IMO. I think a general 14/1 shot would be about fair considering what was ahead of him in the market.

but I will say… if Nicky thinks Champ is his best hope at a GC then that man needs to be put into a carehome or something

[Topofthegame2021]

16/1 is fine tbf, although I think Galvin at 20/1 is a better bet than Chantry House at 10/1, if I had to back one of the horses we've seen already.

Yeats produces some good staying chasers, but their overall calibre at the top level is questionable, evidenced by Chantry House being the highest rated chaser Yeats's has produced. Obviously, thats not reason enough to start opposing him, but it's something I'm mindful of (would be fair to counter with 'Gold Cup winners have been by horses that haven't produced much', Coneygree being a good recent example by Karinga Bay).

First Flooring Porter and now Honeysuckle. You know this is the GC thread right?

Perhaps it is unfair to downplay his wins. I take no issue with forming strong opinions and being wrong, or altering my opinions when I'm wrong. I'll happily concede, having watched all his races back, that I'm probably wrong about Chantry House not staying. I might even be spectacularly wrong Q, you'll enjoy that. He's gone from a 'non stayer' to a complete boat' in less than 24 hours, jelly tots AOTS.

Chantry House could improve and reach GC calibre, but my issue with him from his novice days is he looks to run in snatches when met with a proper championship race pace.Like him or loathe him, I think thats fair based on what we've seen to date. At Cheltenham as they came out of the back straight the commentator said exactly what we were all thinking - 'Chantry House has been out of his comfort zone for half a mile'. At Aintree he's getting slaps down his neck and niggled when the front two aren't as they approach 4 out. I don't think he'd have won at Aintree, but that doesn't really matter, my wider point with a view to the GC is that he's going to have to improve chunks not to encounter the same issues vs much better horses, and he's not priced up now to account for the improvement that will be needed.

oops double post

[Quevega]

16/1 is fine tbf, although I think Galvin at 20/1 is a better bet than Chantry House at 10/1, if I had to back one of the horses we've seen already.

Yeats produces some good staying chasers, but their overall calibre at the top level is questionable, evidenced by Chantry House being the highest rated chaser Yeats's has produced. Obviously, thats not reason enough to start opposing him, but it's something I'm mindful of (would be fair to counter with 'Gold Cup winners have been by horses that haven't produced much', Coneygree being a good recent example by Karinga Bay).

First Flooring Porter and now Honeysuckle. You know this is the GC thread right?

Perhaps it is unfair to downplay his wins. I take no issue with forming strong opinions and being wrong, or altering my opinions when I'm wrong. I'll happily concede, having watched all his races back, that I'm probably wrong about Chantry House not staying. I might even be spectacularly wrong Q, you'll enjoy that. He's gone from a 'non stayer' to a complete boat' in less than 24 hours, jelly tots AOTS.

Chantry House could improve and reach GC calibre, but my issue with him from his novice days is he looks to run in snatches when met with a proper championship race pace.Like him or loathe him, I think thats fair based on what we've seen to date. At Cheltenham as they came out of the back straight the commentator said exactly what we were all thinking - 'Chantry House has been out of his comfort zone for half a mile'. At Aintree he's getting slaps down his neck and niggled when the front two aren't as they approach 4 out. I don't think he'd have won at Aintree, but that doesn't really matter, my wider point with a view to the GC is that he's going to have to improve chunks not to encounter the same issues vs much better horses, and he's not priced up now to account for the improvement that will be needed.

I agree on Galvin being a better bet and I'm being stubborn not backing him, when he has just as good credentials as any other second season chaser (I know he;s technically third)
My only reason at this point is that him being a Gold cup horse appears by accident, and that's not a good enough reason, but I missed the better prices and will wait before adding him, probably when he probably gets beat next time.

With regards his style of running, as I referred to earlier, he seems to be similar to some of the less classy Gold cup horses like Bob's Worth, Don Cossack and maybe even Synchronised.
And similar to other successful cheltenham horses like Inglis Drever, Paisley Park, Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace, I know different disciplines and all that but they weren't always easy on the eye travellers.

I think in the Gold Cup there are three types.

1) The ones mentioned above, that seem to need filling up along the way. Which is where I have Chantry House positioned (potentially of course)

2) The Bold front running grinders that just relentlessly gallop. Coneygree, Denman, Native River.

3) Then the Classy 2 miler types that can quicken of a reasonable pace. Kauto Star, Sizing John.

The multiple winners tend to be able to be a bit if 1 and 3. Like Al Boum & Best Mate.
And obviously the best and most consistent jumpers.

Then you have the boats - Minella Indo & Lord Windermere.
Lots of boats get placed to be fair. And all of the 3 types end up boat like as they age.
To be fair to Minella Indo, he's probably a classier boat than most, but still boat like. IMO.

Agree on the price but I'd imagine the bookies factor in the great record that second season chasers have in this race, 7 and 8 yr olds tend to win or place, even when they have an up and down second season. It'd be nice if they didn't notice the trends but in this case they do. As a result the prices of some more high profile novice champions are a bit rotten.

[Rigga]

Fakir D to step up in trip perhaps ?

[darlojim]

Fakir D to step up in trip perhaps ?

They've certainly said they will try him again at 3 miles. He looked pretty impressive today giving away a few lbs to his rivals who were race fit and he put it to bed easily. He could easily be open to more improvement and has plenty of festival form so aslong as he runs well enough when stepped up to 3, I can definitely see Joseph sending him here. The 66s still there with PP might be worth chancing.

One thing I did notice today was his jumping seemed to be pretty economical without making any errors as he can be prone to do.

[Lobos]

Fakir D to step up in trip perhaps ?

Absobloodylutely. A Plus Tard made the transition and I'd say Fakir is of a similar type.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Lot of chat about Galvin and Chantry House, and i totally understand why.
Both have fair chances imo.
Comparing the two i see totally different horses.
Chantry House has touch of class about him with his supreme effort behind a superstar and another good one........could not imagine Galvin doing that.
Galvin though could well be perfectly suited to the Gold Cup conditions......CH may not.
One of the things i love about this race, the different types that go for it.

For me CH has improved and improved the muore races he has and the further he goes in trip, and looks like he will stay further still. But has a ? there.
Galvin certainly stays!! And i could see him hunting round and being put in the race late on passing horses.........but is he good enough?

Very intriguing.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Next Destination:

Start of in the Betfair Chase
PN thinks he could be a Grand National Horse in the future, and the next few runs will tell him if he's good enough to go the GC or not

P.S. PN also thinks he made the wrong decision to go for the NHC last season and not the 'RSA'

Interesting

Personally think he would have won the RSA the way that race panned out.
Hes 10 next March but is fairly lightly raced for his age.
Look at Galvins price he could be value at current odds, especially if he runs a big race in the Betfair.
Worth a few bob imo.

[Bonjers]

Looks like Champ is a no-go for the Betfair on Saturday.

[Winging The Last]

Looks like Champ is a no-go for the Betfair on Saturday.

2 months down the line....

Henderson 'There aren't any options to run him anywhere so we have had to send him to the Game Spirit as prep for the Gold Cup. We didn't want to run him against Chantry House at any point as we don't like our own horses against each other'.

[Silverbirch]

Any one else a little shocked by how many users think Chantry House will win this in the November winner picks thread?

In my opinion he'll be vying for a place and even then I'll have delta and ABP ahead of him. Fascinating stuff.

[charlie]

Any one else a little shocked by how many users think Chantry House will win this in the November winner picks thread?

In my opinion he'll be vying for a place and even then I'll have delta and ABP ahead of him. Fascinating stuff.

I wouldn't say shocked cause he's been talked up a fair bit on here, but I'm surprised how many like him given his price (don't worry Q, theres plenty of self loathing for this move). Kudos to those on at bigger prices, but 10/1 makes zero appeal, especially when you can back last years 1st and 2nd at 6/1 and 7/1, or, a dual Gold Cup winner at 20/1. The 1's next to his name look good, but I don't think there's enough substance there to justify as short at 9/1. Beat FR 3L in a Marsh, fine - speculative to say EA would have won to put it mildly, but he just would have. He then won at Aintree in a race I didn't think he would have won - again, speculative and open to debate. He then basically schooled round vs TBB - and he's 10/1 for a Gold Cup. Forget it. 1111 flatters to deceive IMO, and whilst he may go on to prove himself in top company, he's priced up as if he's already done it. With a boost I can get Minella Indo @ nearly 7/1, or I can back Chantry house at 10's. I think people generally underestimate the gulf between being a really good horse, and having the credentials to win the Gold Cup. Given MI has been there and done that, got the T-shirt (for an uncomplicated trainer with a plan), and is only a few points shorter, he is an infinitely better bet at the prices IMO and I am surprised more people haven't selected last years winner for those reasons.

[Silverbirch]

I wouldn't say shocked cause he's been talked up a fair bit on here, but I'm surprised how many like him given his price (don't worry Q, theres plenty of self loathing for this move). Kudos to those on at bigger prices, but 10/1 makes zero appeal, especially when you can back last years 1st and 2nd at 6/1 and 7/1, or, a dual Gold Cup winner at 20/1. The 1's next to his name look good, but I don't think there's enough substance there to justify as short at 9/1. Beat FR 3L in a Marsh, fine - speculative to say EA would have won to put it mildly, but he just would have. He then won at Aintree in a race I didn't think he would have won - again, speculative and open to debate. He then basically schooled round vs TBB - and he's 10/1 for a Gold Cup. Forget it. 1111 flatters to deceive IMO, and whilst he may go on to prove himself in top company, he's priced up as if he's already done it. With a boost I can get Minella Indo @ nearly 7/1, or I can back Chantry house at 10's. I think people generally underestimate the gulf between being a really good horse, and having the credentials to win the Gold Cup. Given MI has been there and done that, got the T-shirt (for an uncomplicated trainer with a plan), and is only a few points shorter, he is an infinitely better bet at the prices IMO and I am surprised more people haven't selected last years winner for those reasons.

Still gives me nightmares that Envoi Allen fall.. and then on top the fact that Chantry House won makes me feel sick.

It is fascinating so many people think he's going to win though. In a strange way it reminds me of when Champ won that 2m gold cup prep last year. Such a false elevation imo of course.

[Saxon Warrior]

I wouldn't say shocked cause he's been talked up a fair bit on here, but I'm surprised how many like him given his price (don't worry Q, theres plenty of self loathing for this move).

But people weren't picking based on price.
just who they thought could win.

Historically more horses win first go at the Gold Cup as second season chasers than.
* win the race twice
* win the race second time round having been beaten first time round.

On that profile he is one of the best placed to have a crack at the race.

Maybe we should have a round of who is the best priced/best value in each of those races.

A different set of picks probably emerges from that.

Would be an interesting thread.