2022 Gold Cup

[Lobos]

He's been beaten 5 times out of 5 in chases when the ground has been soft or worse and won all of the other 6. I'm not having it Q.

[Quevega]

He's been beaten 5 times out of 5 in chases when the ground has been soft or worse and won all of the other 6. I'm not having it Q.

His SP's tell you more than the ground.
His best performances have been on ground worse than good to soft.

It's always worth delving deeper than your the first thought that comes to mind.

[Lobos]

His SP's tell you more than the ground.
His best performances have been on ground worse than good to soft.

It's always worth delving deeper than your the first thought that comes to mind.

...and who's to say those performances might have been even better had the ground been quicker ? I delve deeper than you think sometimes

[ComplyOrDie]

The ground thing for Galvin is a bit of a misnomer. Or Bullshit where I'm from.
That was his best ever run at the weekend.
His other best runs were also on softer ground.

TBF you say this about ground regarding near enough every horse each time it's mentioned though.

I get it, you don't think ground plays a key factor for the most part, but others do, myself being one of those.

It's a difficult thing to prove one way or the other because each next run there will be other factors to take into account also, and not just the ground related debate.

[Saxon Warrior]

TBF you say this about ground regarding near enough every horse each time it's mentioned though.

I get it, you don't think ground plays a key factor for the most part, but others do, myself being one of those.

It's a difficult thing to prove one way or the other because each next run there will be other factors to take into account also, and not just the ground related debate.

The trainer has always run Galvin away from winter ground.

Maybe it was his race planning,
Maybe its ground related
Maybe a bit of both.

[Quevega]

The trainer has always run Galvin away from winter ground.

Maybe it was his race planning,
Maybe its ground related
Maybe a bit of both.

None of this alters the facts that the best performances of his life have been when the ground has been on the softer side.

[Istabraq]

Re Shan Blue

I’ve just removed a post from the Out of Festival thread as the update from Skelton says Shan Blue will be on the easy list for a while with a view of getting him back for Cheltenham and Aintree.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.racingpost.com/news/dan-skelton-presses-pause-on-shan-blues-season-with-spring-return-the-plan/519683/amp

[Quevega]

TBF you say this about ground regarding near enough every horse each time it's mentioned though.

I get it, you don't think ground plays a key factor for the most part, but others do, myself being one of those.

It's a difficult thing to prove one way or the other because each next run there will be other factors to take into account also, and not just the ground related debate.

I agree, and each to their own in terms of how much they allow each aspect of racing to influence decision making.

But with most horses I believe it's more important to look at what they've done and not what's been said.
In other words - Evidence vs words.

[Saxon Warrior]

None of this alters the facts that the best performances of his life have been when the ground has been on the softer side.

Thats a great sign.

If he's capable of running on all ground conditions.

[Quevega]

Thats a great sign.

If he's capable of running on all ground conditions.

Yes it definitely is.
But I think Lobos thinks he'd be in arkle's class in a good ground Gold Cup.
He'd also not cash out any bets if the ground comes up soft/heavy in March.

I think Gordon has simply mentioned the ground for the handicappers benefit, and the first season chasing he ran it on bad ground 3 times before the end of November, but was clearly set on the handicap at the festival, which he put up an improved performance on Soft ground.

He's then stuck to the freshness angle I reckon for the NH chase target (which he duly won on GdtoSft -soft places), and it's this that he thinks is key to the horses success at the festival and not so much the ground.

I also think that circumstances, and the performance of the horse, have pushed him down the Gold cup route this season.
As a backer you'd want him to be put away now I'm sure, but I wonder if he'll change tack with him having relatively few 160+ chasers at the moment.

I should have backed Galvin for the Gold cup as he fits in with the type I like for it, age and experience wise.
But I'm not that fussed, as something tells me he's not as good as his new rating.
If he does turn up fresh though then I'd probably want him onside.

[ComplyOrDie]

I agree, and each to their own in terms of how much they allow each aspect of racing to influence decision making.

But with most horses I believe it's more important to look at what they've done and not what's been said.
In other words - Evidence vs words.

The evidence is there though Q.

Galvin, with the exception of one lower class novice hurdle, has not won on soft or heavy going, they are facts. Obviously you could argue the fact it was a personal best LTO on soft, but that, for me, raises the performance and the improvement that is likely to come from better ground.

[Quevega]

The evidence is there though Q.

Galvin, with the exception of one lower class novice hurdle, has not won on soft or heavy going, they are facts. Obviously you could argue the fact it was a personal best LTO on soft, but that, for me, raises the performance and the improvement that is likely to come from better ground.

No it's not.

The most competitiive races he's been involved in have all been on ground on the softer side.
His 2 runs at cheltenham festival and the other day, are his 3 best performances IMO (and comprehensively backed up by ratings and standard of opposition), SOFT, GDtoSOFT (soft places) & SOFT.
His first run this season on good was also up there, but not at the level of the other day.
He ran well on his seasonal debut at cheltenham last season on good ground also but the opposition turned out to not be up to much.

His other wins on good ground were all mickey mouse schooling races, at massive odds on.
Which does not prove a preference for good ground, just that he was by far the best horse in those races.

However, if you choose to believe that winning tin pot low grade novice chasers on Good is evidence that he'll be even better than the other day's performance on good ground then that's up to you. I'd say it'd be foolish.

It seems obvious to me that he is not ground dependent, in that he's capable of producing his best on most ground, maybe not extremes, but this is true of most horses with class/ability.

[Lobos]

I know where you are coming from Q but if his trainer also says he has a preference for Good ground and nearly pulled him for the weekend we have to respect that he knows best.

[Quevega]

I know where you are coming from Q but if his trainer also says he has a preference for Good ground and nearly pulled him for the weekend we have to respect that he knows best.

He sits on dead horses and poses for photo's though
And I think he lies

[Zachx02]

Gordon says that Galvin will have another run around christmas time