2022 Gold Cup

[Spectre]

Irish Grand National??

That's possible if he falls short, but I'd say they would be hopeful for the moment he makes up in to Gold Cup horse. He'd only go to the Irish National if he fell short and he had a mark that reflected it. If he has the mark of a graded horse he'd have to go to the Gold Cup anyway and take his chance, even if he falls short.

[Block 205]

Envoi entered at 2m3.5f on Saturday at Down Royal in the G2 chase. It certainly doesn't look to be the most taxing race, and is hopefully just an opportunity to get back on track and win well, with a view to stepping up in trip in some tougher assignments later in the season.

[Saxon Warrior]

I think when you look at the market and if 40/1 etc he was worth doing as still being lightly raced, you have to think as well injuries are due to happen and what price would he be if the front two got injured leaving a field with a Champ and other exposed regressive types for the race?

Yep, if Galvin or Frodon beats Minella Indo on Saturday, and A Plus Tard gets turned over in England, in the Betfair, the market could look very different very quickly.
Best to have gained positions with cashout on horses like Eklat De Rire and Galvin, just in case.

[charlie]

Eklet was solid yesterday, jumped the majority of fences well especially given his size and the very soft ground. He was pressured a bit by Conflated and the Big Dog but just pulled away enough each time they tried to pull alongside. He has the style and stature of a Gold Cup horse from his debut yesterday and who knows what would have happened if he hadn’t fell in the BANC when travelling well.

The question I’m concerned about is whether HDB would run 3 in the Gold Cup or save one of them for the Grand National?? If so then it wouldn’t be a surprise that Eklet goes for the GNash, he is owner is English and he’s have a very good chance

I don't think HDB would even blink about having 3 runners in a GC, if all make it there in one piece, which is admittedly, unlikely. Willie has run 3 or 4 loads of times, if you have the firepower, fire them.

I watched MI and EDR debuts back on split screen yesterday because I clearly have no life - always mindful not to deduce too much comparing races on separate cards, but I thought EDR did well. He was 12 seconds slower than MI who ran on better ground, and carried 7lbs less. MI definitely finished the race more strongly, but then he would under those circumstances. We wont know until EDR is thrown in the deep end, but if holds his own, which I think he will, he's a player for sure.

[FinalFurlong91]

Yep, if Galvin or Frodon beats Minella Indo on Saturday, and A Plus Tard gets turned over in England, in the Betfair, the market could look very different very quickly.
Best to have gained positions with cashout on horses like Eklat De Rire and Galvin, just in case.

Very possible both indo and a plus tard get beat

Both take a bit of getting fit and will come on for the run

I doubt either will get to March without getting beat

[Saxon Warrior]

Very possible both indo and a plus tard get beat

Both take a bit of getting fit and will come on for the run

I doubt either will get to March without getting beat

Yep so market moves would be inevitable

[Lobos]

If Ahoy Senor runs in and wins the Carlisle race on Sunday then they may well look at the GC. Its a seriously good race. He must be very highly thought of to consider running him against that lot.

[Istabraq]

If Ahoy Senor runs in and wins the Carlisle race on Sunday then they may well look at the GC. Its a seriously good race. He must be very highly thought of to consider running him against that lot.

I’d have thought the chances of that happening are zero.
Royal Pagaille took the flyer last year as a novice but he was a fairly experienced novice, as was Coneygree when he prevailed a few years ago, Ahoy Senor has one bumper and a couple of hurdle runs to his name, talk of a Gold Cup would be premature to say the least….

[Lobos]

I’d have thought the chances of that happening are zero.
Royal Pagaille took the flyer last year as a novice but he was a fairly experienced novice, as was Coneygree when he prevailed a few years ago, Ahoy Senor has one bumper and a couple of hurdle runs to his name, talk of a Gold Cup would be premature to say the least….

So why declare him for a race as tough as this first time up over fences? I know he may not run but it makes a massive statement to me.

[Winging The Last]

So why declare him for a race as tough as this first time up over fences? I know he may not run but it makes a massive statement to me.

Isn’t it just the same situation as Bravemansgame and him starting off in an Intimidate/Graduation Chase rather than a novice? I’m not doubting they don’t think highly of Ahoy but maybe they think the race conditions or the timing off the race or the weather could be what they want.

There has been no talk of Bravemansgame going the GC after his win and I can’t see Ahoy going there either. Novices are most likely to do that if the GC looks a weak renewal. I don’t think this one is looking at it atm

[Altior]

Ahoy Senor is also entered into a novice chase at Wetherby. I just think they're being careful. I'd be shocked if he ran at Carlisle.

I have noticed Envoi has shortened steadily for this and to a lesser degree the Ryanair. People backing in anticipation of his run this weekend or is it something else?

I have been scratching my head trying to think of angles for this. Scrolling through Oddschecker isn't helping. I was fully on board with Eklat De Rire and delighted when I opened FJ for the first time in ages this week that most of the forum felt the same. Other than that though I'm not warming to anything.

The top 2 are a given, no more needs to be said. If APT loses its opener and goes to double figures I might back it but both are not backable for me right now, which might prove ironic as I ask myself, well what bloody beats them?

Cannot have Chantry House and I'll be so upset if he ends up winning this. But it keeps on winning so maybe I'm stone wrong.

Envoi I love but I've felt like the previous heir as the second coming, Samcro, I feel 3m2 is too steep for him. I've him pencilled in for the Ryanair though.

What does Willie bring this year? I'm not keen on ABP for obvious reasons. He'd want to be very very special to rebound this year and win. 20s not the worst AP bet you could make though. Asterion Forlonge, nah, Melon, nah. Carefully Selected looks like age and injury has taken its chance.

The Big Getaway is one I could warm to and at 66s I might be tempted. He's the sort of horse I like for a race like this. I know they might think Ryanair but I always felt 3m+ was the gig.

Outside of Willies you've the usuals like Delta Work who has a lot of racing done, you have Champ who is a big X for me, Galvin who I doubt runs but maybe Gordon will give it a go. Horse owes him nothing and might be worth a push. Secret Reprieve who'd need to find a lot to feature I think. Espoir De Romay, who knows at this stage. Melon and Fakir want the Ryanair trip for me. Samcro is finished. The Big Breakaway has potential but I'm sworn off Tizzard's horses until further notice unless there's something really special there. Fiddlerontheroof is one to keep in mind but would want to come on a lot but I'd warm to it more than Shan Blue for example

Imperial Aura is one I've landed on which I haven't dismissed straight away. Would want to show a lot after two stale outings but can be forgiven for at least one of those anyway. Seems like the further trip is on the cards anyway which is positive.

So after all my blabbering and head scratching, other than Eklat De Rire which is in the book already and APT which might enter it if it drops to double figures, I have:

The Big Getaway @66s
Imperial Aura @50s
And maybe Fiddlerontheroof @66s

And a few yet to be determined. Might just put my energy towards other races and flip a coin between the top two in March

[Imperial Commander]

So why declare him for a race as tough as this first time up over fences? I know he may not run but it makes a massive statement to me.

But hasn't Ahoy just been entered, (not yet declared) for Carlisle so none of the connections of any of the horses entered are making any "statement", they are just making an entry without knowing what else is being entered?

[ToniC]

What does Willie bring this year?

Janidil!

5th in an above average renewal of the Bartlett, so two years on staying the gold cup trip should be no problem you’d think/hope.

Took a while to get it right with him novice chasing for whatever reason after a v impressive win in a beginners, don’t know what went wrong st Stephens day in Limerick but didn’t look great from the outset however wasn’t going back when falling the next day in the flogas, too early to tell how he would have fared ultimately, needs to brush up his jumping but you’d have said that about al Boum photo at this point in his career.

anyway he was really impressive in fairyhouse, winning readily, and I think he’d have no issue at 3m+ ridden similar to take it up strongly late on.

I had mentioned him on here for this before, and was waiting to see an entry before adding him, but looks like somebody has now had him priced up with a few as well as got him in the exchange markets and there are worse 50/1 bets, IMO, some of them from that stable even.

[MadeinJapan]

Ahoy Senor is also entered into a novice chase at Wetherby. I just think they're being careful. I'd be shocked if he ran at Carlisle.

I have noticed Envoi has shortened steadily for this and to a lesser degree the Ryanair. People backing in anticipation of his run this weekend or is it something else?

I have been scratching my head trying to think of angles for this. Scrolling through Oddschecker isn't helping. I was fully on board with Eklat De Rire and delighted when I opened FJ for the first time in ages this week that most of the forum felt the same. Other than that though I'm not warming to anything.

The top 2 are a given, no more needs to be said. If APT loses its opener and goes to double figures I might back it but both are not backable for me right now, which might prove ironic as I ask myself, well what bloody beats them?

Cannot have Chantry House and I'll be so upset if he ends up winning this. But it keeps on winning so maybe I'm stone wrong.

Envoi I love but I've felt like the previous heir as the second coming, Samcro, I feel 3m2 is too steep for him. I've him pencilled in for the Ryanair though.

What does Willie bring this year? I'm not keen on ABP for obvious reasons. He'd want to be very very special to rebound this year and win. 20s not the worst AP bet you could make though. Asterion Forlonge, nah, Melon, nah. Carefully Selected looks like age and injury has taken its chance.

The Big Getaway is one I could warm to and at 66s I might be tempted. He's the sort of horse I like for a race like this. I know they might think Ryanair but I always felt 3m+ was the gig.

Outside of Willies you've the usuals like Delta Work who has a lot of racing done, you have Champ who is a big X for me, Galvin who I doubt runs but maybe Gordon will give it a go. Horse owes him nothing and might be worth a push. Secret Reprieve who'd need to find a lot to feature I think. Espoir De Romay, who knows at this stage. Melon and Fakir want the Ryanair trip for me. Samcro is finished. The Big Breakaway has potential but I'm sworn off Tizzard's horses until further notice unless there's something really special there. Fiddlerontheroof is one to keep in mind but would want to come on a lot but I'd warm to it more than Shan Blue for example

Imperial Aura is one I've landed on which I haven't dismissed straight away. Would want to show a lot after two stale outings but can be forgiven for at least one of those anyway. Seems like the further trip is on the cards anyway which is positive.

So after all my blabbering and head scratching, other than Eklat De Rire which is in the book already and APT which might enter it if it drops to double figures, I have:

The Big Getaway @66s
Imperial Aura @50s
And maybe Fiddlerontheroof @66s

And a few yet to be determined. Might just put my energy towards other races and flip a coin between the top two in March

Well written this - you’ve got exactly the same selections as me for most of the reasons you’ve stated too, although I won’t be looking at Fiddler. The Forum added to any thoughts on Eklat & I’ve thought the step up to 3m + would suit IA & TBG… both are live, unexposed outsiders that could run big races against the top of the market who have been there before, are a year older & we know how hard it is to run in 2, let alone win 2. We could also see a significant reduction in price on them should they prove to be 3m candidates in prep runs. Happy to be in at 66s & 50s so will leave now. Chantry House is the fly in the ointment for me.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Well written this - you’ve got exactly the same selections as me for most of the reasons you’ve stated too, although I won’t be looking at Fiddler. The Forum added to any thoughts on Eklat & I’ve thought the step up to 3m + would suit IA & TBG… both are live, unexposed outsiders that could run big races against the top of the market who have been there before, are a year older & we know how hard it is to run in 2, let alone win 2. We could also see a significant reduction in price on them should they prove to be 3m candidates in prep runs. Happy to be in at 66s & 50s so will leave now. Chantry House is the fly in the ointment for me.

Didn’t Imperial Aura bleed in the Ryanair? Obviously, that’s far from ideal.