2022 Gold Cup

[Rooster Booster]

Agree it's a fair point & history tells us very few do repeat (bar the exceptional). When we take this year's race in to context though - who are the "fresher younger horses" that could finish ahead of APT realistically? IMO the likeliest to finish nearest to him are those who are the same age or older & have got the same sort of mileage on the clock (Galvin 8yo & Minella Indo 9yo).

The younger horses in the race - Chantry House 7yo & Protektorat 7yo both have at least 10lb to find on ratings & although not out of the question come March, that's a lot to find against a horse who's jumping this season since the GC has visibly been far better.

ABP & Champ are 10yos. Next on the list are Tornado Flyer, Royal Pagaille & Fiddlerontheroof who are all 8yos like APT and again on ratings have it all to do. Then it's another 10yo Lostintranslation.

I was trying to find an angle into this earlier in the season with Imperial Aura who for his age is relatively lightly raced but has run like a dog throughout & has limited appeal to even get round on current evidence.

Eklat De Rire is again a lightly raced 8yo but has mountains to find on ratings vs APT and is seemingly held.

So although that trend is proven, the main take I have on this year's Gold Cup is that all of APT's main opponents are the same age or older & he goes there having already improved on last year's GC run with his jumping which I think will edge him ahead...

By definition the younger fresher horses will often have plenty to find on the book as they have yet to have the opportunity to run in such a deep senior race as a gold cup and it’s usually these types of race where horses are awarded their highest rating.

Protektorat as an example has only had 7 chase starts and only two at 3 miles. His last two rprs are his highest ever and his most recent is 9 pounds higher than anything else and achieved at what was his first proper go at 3 miles (if you ignore the Kelso debacle where even the trainer admitted it was a monumental mistake to run him). So we have an improving 7 year old that evidence suggests is improving both with age and with distance.

A plus tard has had 13 chase starts nearly double and many of those have been at the top table which is really tough.His latest RPR is identical to Protektorat. APT needs to raise his game back to haydock levels and hope Protektorat a fast improving second season chaser doesn’t improve again. Yes these two things are quite possible but history tells us it is far less likely than the market would have us believe.

[Benjy23]

Interesting discussion this chaps.

Protektorat really is the only one that first this profile and has much of a chance isn't he. Price has gone now though. Followed by Chantry House

For all Galvin fits the first season out of novice company look, it's actually his third season chasing and fourth visit to the festival. While already having 12 chase runs. Maybe his profile isn't as good as first appeared (to me at least)

[Istabraq]

By definition the younger fresher horses will often have plenty to find on the book as they have yet to have the opportunity to run in such a deep senior race as a gold cup and it’s usually these types of race where horses are awarded their highest rating.

Protektorat as an example has only had 7 chase starts and only two at 3 miles. His last two rprs are his highest ever and his most recent is 9 pounds higher than anything else and achieved at what was his first proper go at 3 miles (if you ignore the Kelso debacle where even the trainer admitted it was a monumental mistake to run him). So we have an improving 7 year old that evidence suggests is improving both with age and with distance.

A plus tard has had 13 chase starts nearly double and many of those have been at the top table which is really tough.His latest RPR is identical to Protektorat. APT needs to raise his game back to haydock levels and hope Protektorat a fast improving second season chaser doesn’t improve again. Yes these two things are quite possible but history tells us it is far less likely than the market would have us believe.

All fair points.
My issue with the horse is that he's avoided top grade action (bar one weak G1 at Aintree), I wondered whether that's because Skelton believed him to be short of top class, in need of more experience, or just swerving the games best horses, who knows, either way if I'm backing a horse in what is usually a brutal Gold Cup I'd want evidence he/she can battle with the best...

[Rooster Booster]

All fair points.
My issue with the horse is that he's avoided top grade action (bar one weak G1 at Aintree), I wondered whether that's because Skelton believed him to be short of top class, in need of more experience, or just swerving the games best horses, who knows, either way if I'm backing a horse in what is usually a brutal Gold Cup I'd want evidence he/she can battle with the best...

Absolutely not because they thought he was short of top class..... the trainer first mentioned the Gold Cup after he defeated the nicholls Southfield novice at Cheltenham....this has been the long term plan and they have very deliberately plotted a path since then. They have always had enormous belief in the horse.

They have made two self confessed mistakes in their campaigning to date. The wincanton run and the Kelso run. Wincanton was never going to suit him and Kelso was a panic decision imo as they felt they needed to banish the wincanton experience into history and see him over 3 miles prior to the festivals but they should have just continued with their patient strategy and let the horse tell them rather than try and force it and they have admitted as such.

they have learnt from this and every step since then has been back on their Gold Cup plan. Yes I accept he hasn’t been given the test you require to back him and so I guess you are hoping he fails the test in the Gold Cup. Personally I am more worried about him making a race ending mistake or not settling than I am his battle hardenness. If I was not on him I would at a minimum watch him over the first few fences. If he is looking like he is happily hunting round and not pulling his jocks arms out then I would definitely be playing in running.

[Istabraq]

Absolutely not because they thought he was short of top class..... .

That may well be the case RB, I have no idea, I was just shouting possible explanations, it's just something of an eyebrow raiser that he's had 16 racecourse efforts and just once met G1 company, not sure too many Gold Cup winners will have experienced that type of career/prep, happy to be proved wrong....

[Maxfield]

Bit sneaky slipping Galvin into that group

lol yeah I didn't think I would get away with that one

[MadeinJapan]

By definition the younger fresher horses will often have plenty to find on the book as they have yet to have the opportunity to run in such a deep senior race as a gold cup and it’s usually these types of race where horses are awarded their highest rating.

Protektorat as an example has only had 7 chase starts and only two at 3 miles. His last two rprs are his highest ever and his most recent is 9 pounds higher than anything else and achieved at what was his first proper go at 3 miles (if you ignore the Kelso debacle where even the trainer admitted it was a monumental mistake to run him). So we have an improving 7 year old that evidence suggests is improving both with age and with distance.

A plus tard has had 13 chase starts nearly double and many of those have been at the top table which is really tough.His latest RPR is identical to Protektorat. APT needs to raise his game back to haydock levels and hope Protektorat a fast improving second season chaser doesn’t improve again. Yes these two things are quite possible but history tells us it is far less likely than the market would have us believe.

They're all good points & if he finds the improvement needed for the step up in trip again then of course he could go close. I get the improvement for 3m angle too last time out as he's posted his best RPR over it. 3m round Aintree however turning over a 12yo Native River (albeit Tiger Roll PU & Imperial Aura ran like a dog again) is a different test to what APT has already got under his belt, Championship pace 3m2 at Cheltenham - and jumping wise he's improved since that run.

The main point that draws me to APT is he's seemingly improved for his jumping since last year's GC in his 2 runs since, he looks like there's plenty left to give & far from spent as a returning runner IMO.

The point you've subsequently made about settling would actually be the biggest fear with him I think, especially given the nutter on board... that's actually a discussion in itself too, if we have a tactical race in March - who would you rather want on your horse... Rachael or Skelton?

[Rooster Booster]

That may well be the case RB, I have no idea, I was just shouting possible explanations, it's just something of an eyebrow raiser that he's had 16 racecourse efforts and just once met G1 company, not sure too many Gold Cup winners will have experienced that type of career/prep, happy to be proved wrong....

I think both Coneygree and Synchronised had only run once in grade 1 company prior to their wins and coneygrees G1 was even weaker than Protektorats but yes I understand your point. We will find out soon enough I guess. Personally he adds some intrigue to the race as an addition to the established senior horses.

[Rooster Booster]

They're all good points & if he finds the improvement needed for the step up in trip again then of course he could go close. I get the improvement for 3m angle too last time out as he's posted his best RPR over it. 3m round Aintree however turning over a 12yo Native River (albeit Tiger Roll PU & Imperial Aura ran like a dog again) is a different test to what APT has already got under his belt, Championship pace 3m2 at Cheltenham - and jumping wise he's improved since that run.

The main point that draws me to APT is he's seemingly improved for his jumping since last year's GC in his 2 runs since, he looks like there's plenty left to give & far from spent as a returning runner IMO.

The point you've subsequently made about settling would actually be the biggest fear with him I think, especially given the nutter on board... that's actually a discussion in itself too, if we have a tactical race in March - who would you rather want on your horse... Rachael or Skelton?

Harsh that one gets a forename and one a surname...more seriously I think DS is a MUCH better rider of hold up horses and on these types is actually very patient ...it’s the over keen front runners that he lacks impulse control on and gets carried away so I am not overly concerned on that front. That doesn’t mean he’ll quickly settle however and that is a concern.

[Carnage at Taunton]

They're all good points & if he finds the improvement needed for the step up in trip again then of course he could go close. I get the improvement for 3m angle too last time out as he's posted his best RPR over it. 3m round Aintree however turning over a 12yo Native River (albeit Tiger Roll PU & Imperial Aura ran like a dog again) is a different test to what APT has already got under his belt, Championship pace 3m2 at Cheltenham - and jumping wise he's improved since that run.

The main point that draws me to APT is he's seemingly improved for his jumping since last year's GC in his 2 runs since, he looks like there's plenty left to give & far from spent as a returning runner IMO.

The point you've subsequently made about settling would actually be the biggest fear with him I think, especially given the nutter on board... that's actually a discussion in itself too, if we have a tactical race in March - who would you rather want on your horse... Rachael or Skelton?

Im not sure how relevant Native River is really, seeing he was beat a distance.
Think the fact hes improved, and considering the lack of experience at the type of distance, probably still improving , i would consider far more relevant.
I dont see anyone actually saying with confidence hes the most likely winner, but as RB says he adds intrigue and some unknown to the race.

Good discussion though and many fair points.

[MadeinJapan]

Harsh that one gets a forename and one a surname...more seriously I think DS is a MUCH better rider of hold up horses and on these types is actually very patient ...it’s the over keen front runners that he lacks impulse control on and gets carried away so I am not overly concerned on that front. That doesn’t mean he’ll quickly settle however and that is a concern.

Hahahahaha, harsh that you've referenced Harry Skelton as DS

That was a generalisation of Skelton though to be fair, he has ridden some good rides.

[MadeinJapan]

Im not sure how relevant Native River is really, seeing he was beat a distance.
Think the fact hes improved, and considering the lack of experience at the type of distance, probably still improving , i would consider far more relevant.
I dont see anyone actually saying with confidence hes the most likely winner, but as RB says he adds intrigue and some unknown to the race.

Good discussion though and many fair points.

The Native River point I was trying to exemplify that APT has been running against a better standard of opposition that Istabraq made better than I did!

No agreed, Protektorat given improvement again for the step up in trip at Cheltenham could end up running a huge race in March... I might have an e/w play on him on NRNB or on the day dependent on price as there have been some valid points made on him.

[Stormez]

They're all good points & if he finds the improvement needed for the step up in trip again then of course he could go close. I get the improvement for 3m angle too last time out as he's posted his best RPR over it. 3m round Aintree however turning over a 12yo Native River (albeit Tiger Roll PU & Imperial Aura ran like a dog again) is a different test to what APT has already got under his belt, Championship pace 3m2 at Cheltenham - and jumping wise he's improved since that run.

The main point that draws me to APT is he's seemingly improved for his jumping since last year's GC in his 2 runs since, he looks like there's plenty left to give & far from spent as a returning runner IMO.

The point you've subsequently made about settling would actually be the biggest fear with him I think, especially given the nutter on board... that's actually a discussion in itself too, if we have a tactical race in March - who would you rather want on your horse... Rachael or Skelton?

Should send him to the Ultima then, be nailed on for it

[TiggerRoll]

They're all good points & if he finds the improvement needed for the step up in trip again then of course he could go close. I get the improvement for 3m angle too last time out as he's posted his best RPR over it. 3m round Aintree however turning over a 12yo Native River (albeit Tiger Roll PU & Imperial Aura ran like a dog again) is a different test to what APT has already got under his belt, Championship pace 3m2 at Cheltenham - and jumping wise he's improved since that run.

The main point that draws me to APT is he's seemingly improved for his jumping since last year's GC in his 2 runs since, he looks like there's plenty left to give & far from spent as a returning runner IMO.

The point you've subsequently made about settling would actually be the biggest fear with him I think, especially given the nutter on board... that's actually a discussion in itself too, if we have a tactical race in March - who would you rather want on your horse... Rachael or Skelton?

It's a fairly irrelevant point but would you rather Bridget kept the ride?

[MadeinJapan]

It's a fairly irrelevant point but would you rather Bridget kept the ride?

Doesn't really bother me as long as Rachael's on APT