2022 Gold Cup

[charlie]

Since 2016, the Gold Cup has attracted a field of between 9 - 16 runners; so this year what sort of filed are we expecting?

A Plus Tard
Al Boum Photo
Asterion Forlonge
Aye Right
Champ
Chantry House
Delta Work
Eklat de Rire
Fiddlerontheroof
Galvin
Lostintranslation
Melon
Minella Indo
Mount Ida
Protektorat
Santini
Tornado Flyer

I have discounted the other entries which IMO have either more likely alternative targets or have been entered without a recent run and therefore unlikely to be primed and fit for a Gold Cup run by mid March.

Of the above, there are still doubts over Asterion Forlonge, Aye Right, Champ, Melon & Mount Ida concerning their target so are we looking at a field of 12 max?

Aye Right is a solid handicapper and probably nothing more but when will the connections ever have another shot at the Gold Cup - around the 80/1 mark

Melon - still unexposed at the trip and up until last year an excellent Festival record - around 80/1

Mount Ida - an interesting one. Has been running predominantly in Mares only races but did the same last year before running a remarkable race in the Kim Muir. Unexposed at the extended trip. owners surely dreaming big. Stablemate of Galvin who is surely the yards number one. Is the Mares Chase more winnable?


Do any of the bigger priced runners warrant a closer look? Or are most waiting for NRNB prices?

My predictions.....

In

A Plus Tard
Al Boum Photo
Chantry House
Delta Work
Fiddlerontheroof
Galvin
Lostintranslation
Melon
Minella Indo
Protektorat
Tornado Flyer

Out

Asterion Forlonge (needs to go right handed)
Aye Right (simply not good enough)
Champ (stayers looks more likely)
Eklat de Rire (big experience and ability question marks)
Mount Ida (mares race looks much easier)
Santini (could start now...)

[Benjy23]

Aye, couldn't have any of those. Above list looks about right though. They plan to run Santini but when he's pulled up in the Cotswold maybe they'll rethink.

Delta Work the one I wouldn't completely give up on in the 80/1 prices. As much as he'd be a disappointing winner of what looks quite a hot race...

[That Horse]

Pricewise has tipped Protektorat, into 10/1 on cashout firms, still 12/1 elsewhere
EDIT - his 2nd choice is Tornado Flyer

[Blackdownhills]

Has anyone cashed out on Eklat De Rire or do people still think he might have a chance or at least placing? I've seen no more entries for him and I'm thinking I can cash out at a profit still and put my money else where. Any thoughts people?

I only have him in a doubles and multiples so will leave him. I don't think he can be totally dismissed after the Hennessy/Ladbrokes. Intrigued to see where he goes next

[Kevloaf]

Pricewise has tipped Protektorat, into 10/1 on cashout firms, still 12/1 elsewhere
EDIT - his 2nd choice is Tornado Flyer

I think that's an awful price.I didn't like him at 16s though.

Native River clearly not the horse he was, now retired. I wouldn't get too excited by that.... nothing else ran it's race that day, so a flat 3m1f win at Aintree I don't think is solid Gold Cup form.

Has decent Cheltenham form, although two festivals, a 22L 5th in the Triumph and 10th in a handicap. His G1 win was at the intermediate trip...

I've not read the case from Pricewise, I'm sure it's well put together...but he's not a horse you can get excited about, is he? At 12/1 anyway.


Tornado Flyer though ....better......

[Quevega]

I think that's an awful price.I didn't like him at 16s though.

Native River clearly not the horse he was, now retired. I wouldn't get too excited by that.... nothing else ran it's race that day, so a flat 3m1f win at Aintree I don't think is solid Gold Cup form.

Has decent Cheltenham form, although two festivals, a 22L 5th in the Triumph and 10th in a handicap. His G1 win was at the intermediate trip...

I've not read the case from Pricewise, I'm sure it's well put together...but he's not a horse you can get excited about, is he? At 12/1 anyway.


Tornado Flyer though ....better......

Be a pretty bad Gold cup if either won.
Both exposed pretty much.
COD did well to cop on for the KG, as it didn't look plausible.

[Kevloaf]

Be a pretty bad Gold cup if either won.
Both exposed pretty much.
COD did well to cop on for the KG, as it didn't look plausible.

I think Tornado Flyer is a much, much, much better bet than Protektorat...

Al Boum Photo at 10/1 and Minella Indo at 8/1 are much better bets than either though IMO

[Moby123]

Pretty sure this will be the "one Gold Cup too many" year for Al Boum Photo - would prefer Tornado Flyer. If you try reading back through Tornado's from through the lens of a Gold Cup horse then a lot of his form makes perfect sense. It wouldn't be a vintage renewal if it won, but it doesn't have that feel anyway does it.....

[Kevloaf]

Pretty sure this will be the "one Gold Cup too many" year for Al Boum Photo - would prefer Tornado Flyer. If you try reading back through Tornado's from through the lens of a Gold Cup horse then a lot of his form makes perfect sense. It wouldn't be a vintage renewal if it won, but it doesn't have that feel anyway does it.....

One too many to place still d'ya think?

I'm far too biased regarding Tornado Flyer to be objective, I'd back him wherever he ran - but interesting to see if others agree.

I will never, ever forget that he was the highest rated Bumper horse Willie had ever had, so it's no surprise to me he's gone on to win a proper G1.

[Moby123]

Took a while but goes to show you never know when your happy ending is going to come ...(unless you find yourself in Suki's off Caversham Road in Reading - where happy endings seem to be all to predictable at around the 30 minute mark)

[Carnage at Taunton]

Be a pretty bad Gold cup if either won.
Both exposed pretty much.
COD did well to cop on for the KG, as it didn't look plausible.

So if Prot wins the Gold Cup beating last years first 3 inc a double winner, rather than him being a good winner or very good horse etc, he’s a winner of a bad gold cup?

And I don’t see Prot exposed at all at 3m type distances.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I think Tornado Flyer is a much, much, much better bet than Protektorat...

Al Boum Photo at 10/1 and Minella Indo at 8/1 are much better bets than either though IMO

Mi is a fair bet if you ignore his last run. ABP is not imo. He should not be improving past the horses that beat him last year.
The 2nd season chasers who are less exposed is where to look imo.
I think Galvin and Prot will
both be in the first 3

[Quevega]

So if Prot wins the Gold Cup beating last years first 3 inc a double winner, rather than him being a good winner or very good horse etc, he’s a winner of a bad gold cup?

And I don’t see Prot exposed at all at 3m type distances.

Don't think he will though.
but you're right. he's not that exposed.
not sure why i've not backed him, as i'd be annoyed if he won.
Bank it, and come back ti me when he does

[Carnage at Taunton]

Don't think he will though.
but you're right. he's not that exposed.
not sure why i've not backed him, as i'd be annoyed if he won.
Bank it, and come back ti me when he does

Ha ha i wont be coming back to you Q, have too many losers to be doing that!!

I do think hes a horse that divides opinion, and can see both sides to be honest.
I did not back him before Aintree, and chose to wait until nrnb, something i regret, but there ya go.
I know what he beat at Aintree is nothing in relation to the Gold Cup,although to be fair he did win a distance.
Its the way the horse performed on the day i liked , and i do think hes a different horse this season upped in trip.
Difficult to say how good he is on form i grant, but even if its just for that reason, i think it best to have him on side.

I also would not be shocked if Fiddler and Chantry got involved in the finish.
Fiddler ran fair races in the RSA and the Ladbroke and could well outrun his current price, and Chantry should be suited to the Gold Cup conditions a lot more than Kempton.

[Maxfield]

I only have him in a doubles and multiples so will leave him. I don't think he can be totally dismissed after the Hennessy/Ladbrokes. Intrigued to see where he goes next

I Cashed out in the end, backed him at 66/1 and BET365 was 25/1 the other day, now out to 33/1. Paddy's have him at 100/1, so made a profit and covered him with Paddy's. Very rare you get to be able to do stuff like that with the bookies!