2022 Gold Cup

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

I think it's potentially a good opportunity for the ones that would back Minella Indo over A Plus Tard.
IMO Minella Indo don't win a King George
& A Plus Tard will likely win the Savilles.
The odds then should drift apart a little more and NRNB kicks in.

To be fair.
I would only be doing this at the prices and do not have a strong opinion that one is better than the other.
I'd still say that it's 60%+ that a new kid wins, but this year these 2 in particular are aged in the right bracket to repeat their performances.

I agree. Minella Indo is all about stamina and is no KG horse. They’re definitely the two to beat. I suspect had APT got closer to MI in last year’s GC, that MI would have kept finding more. He has a great fighting spirit. I do agree with people’s comments that, based on yesterday’s performance, APT’s jumping seems to have improved which will make the GC one hell of a race.

[Kevloaf]

A Plus Tard going shorter than Minella Indo shouldn't really be the trigger to back Minella Indo now should it? The 6/1 hasn't changed for him, and if anything his task got harder (as APT showed to still be in what we can assume is the sme level of ability) or at very least, his task stayed the same?

You could argue that relative to A Plus Tard, that Minella Indo today is a now a better bet than he was, but backing Minella Indo just because another horse got shorter isn't a great plan.

Of course, on the other hand, it depends on whether people feel 6/1 was fair anyway. I know if it was the day of the race and Minella Indo was 6/1 I'd see it as an each way solid bet, it just doesn't (and in my opinion shouldn't) have people wanting to take that today.



Part of this was to convince myself not to back Minella Indo this morning

[charlie]

It was still a reasonably deep race though. At the start. In the context of a betfair chase.

Then it started and fell apart a bit. Although the winner looked like the winner from a long way out.
Your comments are simply a post race summary.

Might be terminology that's getting confused as it may be fairer to say the form is flattering a little cos of the reasons you've mentioned.
But it was an above average renewal for sure.

It wasn't even reasonably deep IMO, nor was it an above average renewal. We normally see small-ish fields in the Betfair Chase, but we regularly see 170+ chasers clash. Last year 171 v 171 v 169, year before 170, 169, 161, year before 176, 172, 165, 165 etc. Yesterday, we had a 170+ horse competing against two 150's horses making up numbers, Royale Pagaille who was never going to run to any sort of 160+ level on that ground, what looks like a Grade 2 chaser in Imperial Aura, and two mid-160's 10 year-olds (one of which I admittedly liked). We knew pre-race it wasn't deep and post race confirmed it. My OP may have been more of a summary, but if that constitutes deep then god help the state of British racing. Anyone know where I can get 27-1 Prestbury Cup odds?

As I said, take nothing away from APT, he was awesome and when the performance looks that good, it seldom matters what dross he left in behind.

[BigChaang]

All the talk pre race from various pundits was APTs first time out record which, to yesterday, wasn’t great. Tends to improve 7lbs plus for his first outing.

I think Henry had him pretty fit yesterday, this had been a long term plan after all. But I have no doubt that like most of Henry’s he’ll improve for the run.

He was up against some decent yardsticks, some of which undoubtedly weren’t at their best and underperformed. But APT has beaten them by over 20l hard on the steel showing, to my eye at least, improved jumping.

For me he’s the rightful favourite. He’s 7 going on 8, he wasn’t far off last year and yesterday he showed no ill effects from a tough race. Indeed I’d argue he showed he’s better for it. As pointed out above he’s unexposed over 3m and he’s just won over 3m 1f.

I’d give him an A Plus yesterday. Ahem.

I agree with your summary OscarWhiskey , On the opening show , they all talked about A.P.T. needing the 1st run .
Sure , the ground was probably not deep enough for R.P. and B.D.M . , but hard not to be impressed with A.P.T. ,
and rightfully Fav for the Gold Cup now.. in.my.opinion..

[Quevega]

It wasn't even reasonably deep IMO, nor was it an above average renewal. We normally see small-ish fields in the Betfair Chase, but we regularly see 170+ chasers clash. Last year 171 v 171 v 169, year before 170, 169, 161, year before 176, 172, 165, 165 etc. Yesterday, we had a 170+ horse competing against two 150's horses making up numbers, Royale Pagaille who was never going to run to any sort of 160+ level on that ground, what looks like a Grade 2 chaser in Imperial Aura, and two mid-160's 10 year-olds (one of which I admittedly liked). We knew pre-race it wasn't deep and post race confirmed it. My OP may have been more of a summary, but if that constitutes deep then god help the state of British racing. Anyone know where I can get 27-1 Prestbury Cup odds?

As I said, take nothing away from APT, he was awesome and when the performance looks that good, it seldom matters what dross he left in behind.

Looks like a list of numbers to me.
You say regularly then list 3 (including one renewal that doesn't count)
Not going to go on about it.
Cos it doesn't really matter.

Agree on the state of UK racing though as who missed the race ?
Champ
Native river
Next Destination.
All would have been beaten in similar fashion IMO.
And won't be winning a Gold Cup.

[charlie]

Looks like a list of numbers to me.
You say regularly then list 3 (including one renewal that doesn't count)
Not going to go on about it.
Cos it doesn't really matter.

Agree on the state of UK racing though as who missed the race ?
Champ
Native river
Next Destination.
All would have been beaten in similar fashion IMO.
And won't be winning a Gold Cup.

Yeh I think thats fair.

[Quevega]

A Plus Tard going shorter than Minella Indo shouldn't really be the trigger to back Minella Indo now should it? The 6/1 hasn't changed for him, and if anything his task got harder (as APT showed to still be in what we can assume is the sme level of ability) or at very least, his task stayed the same?

You could argue that relative to A Plus Tard, that Minella Indo today is a now a better bet than he was, but backing Minella Indo just because another horse got shorter isn't a great plan.

Of course, on the other hand, it depends on whether people feel 6/1 was fair anyway. I know if it was the day of the race and Minella Indo was 6/1 I'd see it as an each way solid bet, it just doesn't (and in my opinion shouldn't) have people wanting to take that today.



Part of this was to convince myself not to back Minella Indo this morning

No it shouldn't.
Why would it be if he's the same price.
Whoever is even thinking about it is daft, based on the likely next race's.

[Istabraq]

A Plus Tard going shorter than Minella Indo shouldn't really be the trigger to back Minella Indo now should it? The 6/1 hasn't changed for him

Bookies so quick to slash prices on one without adjusting on others, it drives me insane.
A Plus Tard halved in price after his performance yesterday in effect taking around 8% out the market without any correction, if Minella Indo had been pushed out a point or two then I’d say yes, at 8/1 he’s a bet.
Same Bravemansgame, didn’t impress me hugely but suddenly bookies believe he has a better chance at winning the 3m race than Galopin Des Champs, which for me is wrong, GDC is the better horse and when he hits a racecourse no doubt they’ll flip favs again but there was no drift on GDC after shortening BMG.

I’ve said since March the Gold Cup is a 3/4 horse race, A Plus Tard, Envoi, Minella Indo being the main 3 and if I had the chance to back MI at 8s or bigger I would happily press….

[Craigy14]

For me I think sometimes you just have to enjoy the visual performance and forget about how deep a race it was, who didn’t perform etc.

He’s absolutely smashed some very good horses without coming off the bridle. Make whatever excuses for the underperformers post race, who cares. He travelled superbly and jumped excellently.

Similar to Appreciate It in the Supreme, call it a shit race etc but just go on the visual of the horse that impressed.

If he doesn’t back it up, then throw those things at him about not beating much etc.

[Eggs]

…..HdB 14-1 with Sky to have 1-2-3 in the GC.

[That Horse]

…..HdB 14-1 with Sky to have 1-2-3 in the GC.

Combination tricast on the day surely a better bet than those odds?

[Atlantic Viking]

For me I think sometimes you just have to enjoy the visual performance and forget about how deep a race it was, who didn’t perform etc.

He’s absolutely smashed some very good horses without coming off the bridle. Make whatever excuses for the underperformers post race, who cares. He travelled superbly and jumped excellently.

Similar to Appreciate It in the Supreme, call it a shit race etc but just go on the visual of the horse that impressed.

If he doesn’t back it up, then throw those things at him about not beating much etc.

Absolutely this.

[Atlantic Viking]

Interesting that Rachael said just now that Richard Thompson and family were there at Haydock yesterday to see APT, wont do any harm for hopes the CPS fire keeps burning for NH horses.

[Hurricane fly]

Interesting that Rachael said just now that Richard Thompson and family were there at Haydock yesterday to see APT, wont do any harm for hopes the CPS fire keeps burning for NH horses.

I clapped a bit harder when they were presented..hoping every little helps to keep them in the NH game!

[Outlaw]

Bridle job producing a figure a better than BDM(arguably his best performance) did in 18 which was as close to Sat ground despite the going telling you there was any "soft" in the description, Come March the ground will be the only way to split APT/Indo on the day as the former is quicker and nimble but Indo you'd prob still just about side with if soft and truly run again.