2022 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

[Winging The Last]

I’d love a pint of whatever the people who think Hollow Games will end up in the Pipe are on!

I know and not just him Gerri as well.

HG will be either 145 plus so won’t get in or be top weight plus needs 3 miles
Gerri needs two more runs in about 50 days to get a mark and there aren’t many races he can even race in within that time in Ireland. Graded wise there’s 3 2m novices, 1 2.5m, 1 2.6m and a 3m. Most of them are pretty much the following weeks as well. And there’s one 3m novice at Thurles at the end of Jan. He’d need to race in that and one in Feb to get a mark really. But he looks like he’ll end up plus 145 anyway

[Hussard]

Gordon rarely sends his best graded horses to DRF.
Pre incident last year. He did not send Envoi, Sir G, Zanihayr were all kept at home as they were considered his best chances. Galvin did not run at DRF nor did Mount Ida or Black Tears.
The only Cullentra winner at festival last year who ran at DRF was Quilixilos who was considered 2nd string to Zanihayr.
I don’t see Hollow Games going to DRF as a positive.
Ginto should run in the Bartlett for me as I feel a speed horse will do him for toe in the Ballymore.

[ToniC]

DRF isn’t at Clonmel right?!

No I’m not sure if there may have been post-race comments about the DRF from Henry, but when he was going to run in navan on the 18th somebody circulated some sort of unofficial ‘statement’ as it were on here from Robcours racing manager (mr phelan) outlining the plan for JWM going forward which was to essentially tread the Minella Indo path, with a 20 furlong maiden then running in the Grade 3 in clonmel after.

Clonmel is basically perpetually soft, Leopardstown anything but so given what’s gone off so far with getting the horse onto the track it would probably make sense. Though the race in clonmel is a week or 2 later, so they can always enter in the DRF race and see how to ground turns up on the week then decide whether to play or not.

[Winging The Last]

Gordon rarely sends his best graded horses to DRF.
Pre incident last year. He did not send Envoi, Sir G, Zanihayr were all kept at home as they were considered his best chances. Galvin did not run at DRF nor did Mount Ida or Black Tears.
The only Cullentra winner at festival last year who ran at DRF was Quilixilos who was considered 2nd string to Zanihayr.
I don’t see Hollow Games going to DRF as a positive.
Ginto should run in the Bartlett for me as I feel a speed horse will do him for toe in the Ballymore.

Last year he did send Fakiera to the 2.6 race at the DRF and then onto the AB where he went off 4/1 2nd favourite. So I see no issue with Hollow Games doing the same this year.

His other horse he sent to the AB was Torygraph who went off 7/1 3rd favourite and he ran at Thurles over 3 miles at the end of Jan

[Milbear0]

Last year he did send Fakiera to the 2.6 race at the DRF and then onto the AB where he went off 4/1 2nd favourite. So I see no issue with Hollow Games doing the same this year.

His other horse he sent to the AB was Torygraph who went off 7/1 3rd favourite and he ran at Thurles over 3 miles at the end of Jan

Finished 10th and 8th, would suggest the SP was wrong rather an accurate reflection of the horses chance pre-race.
Hussards point is a good one.

[Kevloaf]

I’d love a pint of whatever the people who think Hollow Games will end up in the Pipe are on!

Before Column Of Fire went for the Martin Pipe, he had an RPR of 144.

What do you think Hollow Games' RPR is gonna be after today?

So far Hollow Games has a 139, then a 127.... today he's finished behind a horse previously with an RPR of 129 and 4.5L behind Ginto who had run to an RPR of 128 then RPR 143.


Bob Olinger got an RPR of 152 when he won the Lawlors.... He had an OR of 150 for the Ballymore ......



.......so has Hollow Games run to within 5 lbs of Bob Olinger's performance last year?



I don't think it's a certain at all that he is going for the G1 yet..... he needs to perform at the DRF, or he's a handicapper for now.



Not sure what I'm on......

[Winging The Last]

Finished 10th and 8th, would suggest the SP was wrong rather an accurate reflection of the horses chance pre-race.
Hussards point is a good one.

Still we’re though of highly before the race and looking at the SPs outsiders filled the front places.

Also two years before Commander of Fleet was very highly rated and ran at the DRF before coming second in the AB.

[OverTheLast]

Before Column Of Fire went for the Martin Pipe, he had an RPR of 144.

What do you think Hollow Games' RPR is gonna be after today?

So far Hollow Games has a 139, then a 127.... today he's finished behind a horse previously with an RPR of 129 and 4.5L behind Ginto who had run to an RPR of 128 then RPR 143.


Bob Olinger got an RPR of 152 when he won the Lawlors.... He had an OR of 150 for the Ballymore ......



.......so has Hollow Games run to within 5 lbs of Bob Olinger's performance last year?



I don't think it's a certain at all that he is going for the G1 yet..... he needs to perform at the DRF, or he's a handicapper for now.



Not sure what I'm on......

Kev he’s a total stayer and anyone can see that. He’s been crying out for a trip any time you see him - Column Of Fire was the ultimate plot and the whole word knew and was on him. He had a good turn of foot which is needed in the MP, it’s not a race for grinding it out stayers.

To my eye, HG is the furthest thing from a Pipe horse - on ratings/figures he might be, but to the eye - you can’t watch any of his races and think ‘Pipe horse’

[Kevloaf]

Kev he’s a total stayer and anyone can see that. He’s been crying out for a trip any time you see him - Column Of Fire was the ultimate plot and the whole word knew and was on him. He had a good turn of foot which is needed in the MP, it’s not a race for grinding it out stayers.

To my eye, HG is the furthest thing from a Pipe horse - on ratings/figures he might be, but to the eye - you can’t watch any of his races and think ‘Pipe horse’

Surely you can see that some Ballymore winners were 'stayers' though?

I am not saying I think Ginto will 100% go here....

but what I am saying, is I haven't seen any horse put forward a better claim than what we saw today.

It's almost like because we had 2 really good horses win the last 2 renewals, people are convinced the winner of this race has to be an absolute star.

It's surely possibly, that given Willie has put forward Whatdeawant, and Dysart Dynamo is the one people are cooing over, that maybe he doesn't have a star this year either.... and maybe it's an average renewal, and Ginto, with the best form we've seen so far, is good enough?

[Our_Duke]

Surely you can see that some Ballymore winners were 'stayers' though?

I am not saying I think Ginto will 100% go here....

but what I am saying, is I haven't seen any horse put forward a better claim than what we saw today.

It's almost like because we had 2 really good horses win the last 2 renewals, people are convinced the winner of this race has to be an absolute star.

It's surely possibly, that given Willie has put forward Whatdeawant, and Dysart Dynamo is the one people are cooing over, that maybe he doesn't have a star this year either.... and maybe it's an average renewal, and Ginto, with the best form we've seen so far, is good enough?

It is definitely possible. I do think there's a chance that something speedier will do him for a bit of speed, but it's perfectly plausible for that not to happen also depending on who shows up. If he was a similar price with NRNB I'd be really happy to take him each way as I think he'll set a solid standard.

[Kevloaf]

It is definitely possible. I do think there's a chance that something speedier will do him for a bit of speed, but it's perfectly plausible for that not to happen also depending on who shows up. If he was a similar price with NRNB I'd be really happy to take him each way as I think he'll set a solid standard.

Yeah, can't disagree, and I've seen it said more than 5 times so far that something speedier might do win this....

The thing is, literally no-one has put forward what this speedier horse is


'Something' is gonna come along soon, surely.


I'm joking of course, I do agree, Ginto is far from certain to even run, let alone be a good thing! As he doesn't look perfect for this race, despite being the best so far.

[Our_Duke]

Yeah, can't disagree, and I've seen it said more than 5 times so far that something speedier might do win this....

The thing is, literally no-one has put forward what this speedier horse is


'Something' is gonna come along soon, surely.


I'm joking of course, I do agree, Ginto is far from certain to even run, let alone be a good thing! As he doesn't look perfect for this race, despite being the best so far.

Yeah it's all very much based on either A) a Supreme horse switching to here (Constitution Hill etc), B) an unexposed horse (ie Dysart Dynamo) running and putting in a special performance.

From the first few in the market, the two I think most likely to come here (never a certainty I know) are Ginto and Stage Star and I know which formline I'd prefer out of those.

I was a bit "meh" on first viewing of Ginto today, he doesn't have the eye-catching cruising speed/acceleration that many of us are looking for in a Novice hurdler, but his last two performances have loads of good horses behind (whether or not they'll be better at 3miles) so I'm coming round and want to see what NRNB price I can get (I don't make a book so don't like getting too involved at short prices on horses with uncertain targets).

[Istabraq]

Yeah it's all very much based on either A) a Supreme horse switching to here (Constitution Hill etc), B) an unexposed horse (ie Dysart Dynamo) running and putting in a special performance.
.

A Supreme horse switching to the Potato race ?
Or did you think this was the Ballymore thread ?

[OverTheLast]

Surely you can see that some Ballymore winners were 'stayers' though?

I am not saying I think Ginto will 100% go here....

but what I am saying, is I haven't seen any horse put forward a better claim than what we saw today.

It's almost like because we had 2 really good horses win the last 2 renewals, people are convinced the winner of this race has to be an absolute star.

It's surely possibly, that given Willie has put forward Whatdeawant, and Dysart Dynamo is the one people are cooing over, that maybe he doesn't have a star this year either.... and maybe it's an average renewal, and Ginto, with the best form we've seen so far, is good enough?

?? I haven’t mentioned Ballymore! My point was I can’t see Hollow Games in the Martin Pipe

[Kevloaf]

?? I haven’t mentioned Ballymore! My point was I can’t see Hollow Games in the Martin Pipe

My point is, he's nowhere near good enough for a Ballymore....so Martin Pipe isn't out of the realms of possibility?

If he doesn't win at the DRF.... what do you think they do with him? Send him as a rag to the AB?


You implied you need to have been on something to think he'll end up in a handicap, what I'm saying is he's literally 1 run away from it... same as he's 1 run away from being AB fav....

It's not crazy to suggest he'll be in the Martin Pipe .... .... and FWIW, as my best winner in the AB, I hope he's not!