2022 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

[Lobos]

Heard anything in particular?

Nothing new. Just drifting for the Ballymore and a little money for the Albert.

[The Fellow]

only a quid waiting to back JWM in the Bally

[Hurricane fly]

Only ?1 to lay at 7/1 and nothing else got the ballymore
45/1 to lay for this then nothing til the 400.0

Im not an exchanges watcher but that's enough to make me nervous

[Dandrew99]

Still haven't learned how the exchanges work... Haven't found a video explaining what is a "bad sign".

So now ?3 to lay at 400s is the best, which means nobody is backing him right? That makes sense. But why is that a bad sign, and say Sir Gerhard who is ?10 available at 11s not a bad sign?

[Zachx02]

Still haven't learned how the exchanges work... Haven't found a video explaining what is a "bad sign".

So now ?3 to lay at 400s is the best, which means nobody is backing him right? That makes sense. But why is that a bad sign, and say Sir Gerhard who is ?10 available at 11s not a bad sign?

From my understanding, if the back price is going out, thats a bad sign

[Dandrew99]

From my understanding, if the back price is going out, thats a bad sign

Yeah I get that bit. People putting their hard earned onto a horse to lose has to be a bad sign, it's more the lay side that is a bit of a mystery in terms of the "bad signs".

[Zachx02]

Yeah I get that bit. People putting their hard earned onto a horse to lose has to be a bad sign, it's more the lay side that is a bit of a mystery in terms of the "bad signs".

Money has to be matched, so if its being matched at higher prices in fast succession, people will be laying more so I think thats how it works but I'm not sure

[Stormez]

Yeah I get that bit. People putting their hard earned onto a horse to lose has to be a bad sign, it's more the lay side that is a bit of a mystery in terms of the "bad signs".

It’s a bad sign if there’s no money there for you to lay, as it means people aren’t putting money up to back it.

[Dandrew99]

It’s a bad sign if there’s no money there for you to lay, as it means people aren’t putting money up to back it.

Ah that makes sense. So on the back side, it's all about the price available (bigger is bad sign), on the lay side, it's more about the money available (less is bad sign)?

I assume there's a way to see what other prices people have put money up at? I'm in the app, dunno if that's different.

Totally off topic but interesting to see someone has laid Sir G for 20k at 1.2, but still! Surprised people put those sort of numbers on the exchanges.

[jrjr]

Still haven't learned how the exchanges work... Haven't found a video explaining what is a "bad sign".

So now ?3 to lay at 400s is the best, which means nobody is backing him right? That makes sense. But why is that a bad sign, and say Sir Gerhard who is ?10 available at 11s not a bad sign?

Basically, the pink column (to lay) is money wanting to back the selection. As a punter, if you're not happy with the best price in the blue (to back) column then you can enter a price that you want, this then goes into the pink column and sits there until someone matches it. In this instance, if you're hoping JWM goes to the Bartlett then you'd want to see no money in the pink column, meaning no one is wanting to back it.

Tbh, the markets this far out from the Festival are so immature that it's v hard to read anything into it. The figures for this and the Bartlett are tiny. If you want to see a more mature market then look at APT in the Gold Cup, this is a decent example. If the pink column suddenly started drifting higher then you'd know there was something up with the horse.

[Exar Essay]

Totally off topic but interesting to see someone has laid Sir G for 20k at 1.2, but still! Surprised people put those sort of numbers on the exchanges.

It’s cos the market is live even during the race. So your mate might’ve had 4k on SG at 5/1. He might then want to cover himself in case SG buggers up when looking certain to win - so he says he’ll accept a 20k bet at 1.2.

So say SG is pulling away before the last, someone else might take the bet and put 20k on at 1.2. He’ll accept the bet of 20k and his exposure is 4K. Then, if SG falls at the last when pulling away, he wins 20k (less the 4K he originally staked). But if SG does the business, he wins 20k from his original bet (less the 4K he now owes the better on the exchange).

[Faugheen_Machine]

It’s cos the market is live even during the race. So your mate might’ve had 4k on SG at 5/1. He might then want to cover himself in case SG buggers up when looking certain to win - so he says he’ll accept a 20k bet at 1.2.

So say SG is pulling away before the last, someone else might take the bet and put 20k on at 1.2. He’ll accept the bet of 20k and his exposure is 4K. Then, if SG falls at the last when pulling away, he wins 20k (less the 4K he originally staked). But if SG does the business, he wins 20k from his original bet (less the 4K he now owes the better on the exchange).

Ante post markets don't turn in-play so it is a bit odd that someone has put that 20k up. Might be trying to catch a drunk, a bot, or hiding it from the Mrs

[Exar Essay]

Ante post markets don't turn in-play so it is a bit odd that someone has put that 20k up. Might be trying to catch a drunk, a bot, or hiding it from the Mrs

I thought they converted them? Still, much prefer your theory

[Dandrew99]

Cheers all for the info by the way

I'll stop hijacking the thread so we can get back to the fact that HDB has come onto FJ, understood the error in his ways and will send JWM to the Bartlett

[Saxon Warrior]

I have written a ratings review of the last 10 years on the A.Bartlett, and what the 1st three home in those races, achieved before they ran in those races.

Then compared to what the current A.Bartlett entrants have achieved.

Its in my Diary in the Members section

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat-jockey-horse-racing-forum/cheltenham-festival-2021/members-only-cheltenham-antepost-diaries/304487-saxon-warrior-2022-antepost-diary?p=356844#post356844