2022 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

[Brooksie]

If he's to be winning a grade 1 novice hurdle he should be beating those horses a lot easier than he did

A lot lot easier imo

The problem with that statement is the horse that finished 8 lengths back in 3rd finished about the same distance in 4th in a grade 1 last time out. Albeit GC was getting 5 lbs from that horse. I don't even fancy GC for this to be honest, but I don't think he has to beat them a lot lot easier to have some kind of a chance in a grade 1.

[Craigy14]

So, if Robcour's people are to be trusted and they are to be split, then GC here and JWM Ballymore. Is that how we see it now or are they going to change stance and run them both here.

I think you’re the only person on the forum with that view Lobos

Grand Jury and Journey With Me are with HDB (those will be split).
Gerri Colombe is with Elliott.

Where Gerri goes won’t affect the other 2 imo as they are in different stables.

[Rooster Booster]

I think you’re the only person on the forum with that view Lobos

Grand Jury and Journey With Me are with HDB (those will be split).
Gerri Colombe is with Elliott.

Where Gerri goes won’t affect the other 2 imo as they are in different stables.

correct but this has been stated a gazillion times by everyone. There are only so many times a point can be made before eventually it needs to filed in the ‘falling on deaf ears’ folder

[Lobos]

correct but this has been stated a gazillion times by everyone. There are only so many times a point can be made before eventually it needs to filed in the ‘falling on deaf ears’ folder

The fact is though that , as I've said before, individuals on here have posted comments from Robcour connections saying all 3 will be split. Whether that is still the case I don't know so please shoot the messenger not me.

[Lobos]

Nope I can't see it happening. As Madmoose said a few weeks back they were looking to split them up, Grand Duty - Supreme, GC - Ballymore, JWM - AB.

It could be the other way around but it will depend how GC and JWM get on in their debuts regarding trip.

This would also fit in with GE to allow him to sent Hollow Games to the AB. Then he's got to put Three Stripe Life somewhere and many others

.............above posted back in October re splitting up Robcour's 3 Amigos.

[Rooster Booster]

The fact is though that , as I've said before, individuals on here have posted comments from Robcour connections saying all 3 will be split. Whether that is still the case I don't know so please shoot the messenger not me.

Well that surely disappeared the second HDB said Grand Jury looked like he needed to step up in trip immediately after winning his maiden which was back in bloody November. It’s time to move on ...well was 2 months ago actually.

[SeanRock]

Well that surely disappeared the second HDB said Grand Jury looked like he needed to step up in trip immediately after winning his maiden which was back in bloody November. It’s time to move on ...well was 2 months ago actually.

I think Grand Jury would be a player in the Ballymore or Supreme. Have backed for both so happy to see how HdB see’s fit!

[Lobos]

Well that surely disappeared the second HDB said Grand Jury looked like he needed to step up in trip immediately after winning his maiden which was back in bloody November. It’s time to move on ...well was 2 months ago actually.

And who's to say GJ and JWM will be split up if both are suited to the Ballymore trip ? Could one miss Cheltenham altogether? Neither of us or anyone else outside of the stable themselves knows what's going to happen and they probably don't know yet either !

[DenmanSacre]

Gerri looks around the 140 mark, even though he won't get a mark. 10-15lbs to find to get competitive and no obvious reason to expect that after today's evidence.

If he does go straight to Cheltenham like Elliott says, then he has a fair bit to find and it doesn't help that he is so slow to get his front legs up when jumping as well.
And Elliot's comments regarding why he didn't go to Dublin should really apply to Cheltenham as well, as he still looks like he needs more experience.

No doubt he'll keep plugging away as he looks daft, but I'd be very surprised personally if he's up to winning a reasonable standard grade 1.

His price is also dogshit.
He's a 16-1 shot at best.

After watching the race I agree with this. The winners of this are either experienced with 4+ hurdle runs or potential GC or Stayers Hurdle standard and I wouldn't be confident he's at that potential level.

He's just not going to be troubling the main ones in the AB after that performance if they all turn up IMO.

I haven't backed him for this and don't see me doing so unless he's 20s or higher. He's now ranging from 7/1 to 10/1 which I'd be confident you'd get on the day anyway.

Not sure he's even in Gordon's top 3 if Ginto comes here as Hollow Games and Minella Crooner will be better than him.

[Buckingham]

This really is not a race to be so dogmatic about - a well run stiff 3m on an undulating track is something that virtually none of the participants will have ever seen. Vanillier was a 53 length 10th of 13 in his preceding race, Kilbricken storm was beaten 23 lengths in his prior race. Even Minella Indo who was 2nd to Allaho (great in hindsight) was only given a RPR of 138. Personally I don't have Gerri Colombe near the top of my list (and I think the price is far, far too short) but I wouldn't go anywhere near as far as saying he couldn't win it. These are relatively young horses, still learning, still improving and about to be faced with a totally different set of conditions than any have yet faced - 4 of the last 5 winners improved their best RPR by between 9 and 18lbs on the day (Monkfish the exception).

[Kevloaf]

This really is not a race to be so dogmatic about - a well run stiff 3m on an undulating track is something that virtually none of the participants will have ever seen. Vanillier was a 53 length 10th of 13 in his preceding race, Kilbricken storm was beaten 23 lengths in his prior race. Even Minella Indo who was 2nd to Allaho (great in hindsight) was only given a RPR of 138. Personally I don't have Gerri Colombe near the top of my list (and I think the price is far, far too short) but I wouldn't go anywhere near as far as saying he couldn't win it. These are relatively young horses, still learning, still improving and about to be faced with a totally different set of conditions than any have yet faced - 4 of the last 5 winners improved their best RPR by between 9 and 18lbs on the day (Monkfish the exception).

A lot of good points.

[Istabraq]

This really is not a race to be so dogmatic about - a well run stiff 3m on an undulating track is something that virtually none of the participants will have ever seen. Vanillier was a 53 length 10th of 13 in his preceding race, Kilbricken storm was beaten 23 lengths in his prior race. Even Minella Indo who was 2nd to Allaho (great in hindsight) was only given a RPR of 138.

Yep, often throws up a surprise this race, Vanilier was probably the most impressive winner in the races history last year at (from memory) 20/1.
The experience angle is solid in this but it's certainly a race you can be rewarded for throwing a few big priced horses…

[Faugheen_Machine]

This really is not a race to be so dogmatic about - a well run stiff 3m on an undulating track is something that virtually none of the participants will have ever seen. Vanillier was a 53 length 10th of 13 in his preceding race, Kilbricken storm was beaten 23 lengths in his prior race. Even Minella Indo who was 2nd to Allaho (great in hindsight) was only given a RPR of 138. Personally I don't have Gerri Colombe near the top of my list (and I think the price is far, far too short) but I wouldn't go anywhere near as far as saying he couldn't win it. These are relatively young horses, still learning, still improving and about to be faced with a totally different set of conditions than any have yet faced - 4 of the last 5 winners improved their best RPR by between 9 and 18lbs on the day (Monkfish the exception).

That's all fair enough but what price were all of those horses mentioned above? Probably 33/1+ at this point. GC is pushing single figures which I think is way shorter than he should be.

[Lbur4288]

That's all fair enough but what price were all of those horses mentioned above? Probably 33/1+ at this point. GC is pushing single figures which I think is way shorter than he should be.

Vanillier was 40s in the February.

[charlie]

This really is not a race to be so dogmatic about - a well run stiff 3m on an undulating track is something that virtually none of the participants will have ever seen. Vanillier was a 53 length 10th of 13 in his preceding race, Kilbricken storm was beaten 23 lengths in his prior race. Even Minella Indo who was 2nd to Allaho (great in hindsight) was only given a RPR of 138. Personally I don't have Gerri Colombe near the top of my list (and I think the price is far, far too short) but I wouldn't go anywhere near as far as saying he couldn't win it. These are relatively young horses, still learning, still improving and about to be faced with a totally different set of conditions than any have yet faced - 4 of the last 5 winners improved their best RPR by between 9 and 18lbs on the day (Monkfish the exception).

Excellent post.