2022 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

[Our_Duke]

A Supreme horse switching to the Potato race ?
Or did you think this was the Ballymore thread ?

Ah yeah was just talking about Ginto in general sorry - I don't see CH or DD switching to here

[Kevloaf]

A Supreme horse switching to the Potato race ?
Or did you think this was the Ballymore thread ?

Think that's my fault, I've asked a question regarding the Ballymore...

Still, the hope a Supreme horse diverts or a maiden steps up hugely, is fine....but not for me, especially when we don't know what it might be.... it's much more likely at this stage, it ain't happenin'

[Istabraq]

Think that's my fault, I've asked a question regarding the Ballymore...
'

I’m easily confused these days Kev but it has to be a longshot that a potential Supreme horse steps up to 3m, if horses prove to be short of G1 at whatever distance they’re tackling they’re better off aiming at a handicap in their novice season…

[Quevega]

Kev he’s a total stayer and anyone can see that. He’s been crying out for a trip any time you see him - Column Of Fire was the ultimate plot and the whole word knew and was on him. He had a good turn of foot which is needed in the MP, it’s not a race for grinding it out stayers.

To my eye, HG is the furthest thing from a Pipe horse - on ratings/figures he might be, but to the eye - you can’t watch any of his races and think ‘Pipe horse’

I'm setting you some homework.
Go and look at past winners of the martin pipe.
Some of the slowest good horses in history.

[OverTheLast]

I'm setting you some homework.
Go and look at past winners of the martin pipe.
Some of the slowest good horses in history.

And not one of them is in a similar mould to Hollow Games - maybe Don Poli, who was clearly streets ahead of his mark.

[DenmanSacre]

And not one of them is in a similar mould to Hollow Games - maybe Don Poli, who was clearly streets ahead of his mark.

Blow by Blow? Slowest horse that's ever won it.

Killultagh Vic - won this and then won the 3m grade 1 novice at Punchestown. Same for Champagne Classic and GDC (though obviously a different class of horse).

Not sure what mould you are looking for but plenty of horses win this and are at their best over further.

[Quevega]

And not one of them is in a similar mould to Hollow Games - maybe Don Poli, who was clearly streets ahead of his mark.

Blow by Blow ?
Champagne Classic ?
Sir Des Champs ?
Indefatigible ?

All won because they stayed the best, and the pace was too fast under conditional jockeys on their big day out. Or they ground it out the best.
A turn of foot rarely wins this race.


And we don't know Hollow Games mark just yet.
The grade 3 he won, he beat a 125 rated horse 2 lengths giving it 4lb.
And he's just finished 3l in front of a 127 rated horse.
With Dublin to come.

[Quevega]

Blow by Blow? Slowest horse that's ever won it.

Killultagh Vic - won this and then won the 3m grade 1 novice at Punchestown. Same for Champagne Classic and GDC (though obviously a different class of horse).

Not sure what mould you are looking for but plenty of horses win this and are at their best over further.

Blow by Blow's win was off 144 as well.
And the ones in behind him were.
Discorama
Early Doors
Sire du Berlais

[Kevloaf]

Kev he’s a total stayer and anyone can see that. He’s been crying out for a trip any time you see him - Column Of Fire was the ultimate plot and the whole word knew and was on him. He had a good turn of foot which is needed in the MP, it’s not a race for grinding it out stayers.

To my eye, HG is the furthest thing from a Pipe horse - on ratings/figures he might be, but to the eye - you can’t watch any of his races and think ‘Pipe horse’

I did come back on this morning to make the point about total stayers winning the Martin Pipe but I see it's already been highlighted.

I very strongly disagree that Hollow Games being a 'total stayer' would rule him out of being a huge player if he did end up in the Martin Pipe.

I agree Column Of Fire was the ultimate plot, and bonus points for remembering just who found him first on here - may have been before you joined though

[SeanRock]

Cheltenham is all about winners. Gordon won’t be interested in splitting his to both nick place money, his best chance of a winner between Hollow Games & Ginto would be with Ginto over 3m.

He hasn’t got the change of gears to win a Ballymore for me & its very difficult to set the margins going from from the front in the Ballymore as people are suggesting they do, only Willoughby Court in the last 10 years has won making all in a relatively weak field.

[Spectre]

Gordon rarely sends his best graded horses to DRF.
Pre incident last year. He did not send Envoi, Sir G, Zanihayr were all kept at home as they were considered his best chances. Galvin did not run at DRF nor did Mount Ida or Black Tears.
The only Cullentra winner at festival last year who ran at DRF was Quilixilos who was considered 2nd string to Zanihayr.
I don’t see Hollow Games going to DRF as a positive.
Ginto should run in the Bartlett for me as I feel a speed horse will do him for toe in the Ballymore.

Yes, this was on my mind too when he said Hollow Games would go to Leopardstown and Ginto straight to the Festival.

I immediately drew the conclusion that in Elliott's mind Hollow Games is the Bartlett horse and Ginto is the Ballymore horse. His additional comments also suggested that is probably the case, although he left it open enough to say he'd discuss with Jack Kennedy and the owners.

In terms of their relative chances, Journey With Me looks like he might be a tough nut to crack in the Bartlett, but at this stage there's nothing putting itself forward as the hot favourite for the Ballymore, which will also help convince Elliott that he might follow his initial instincts.

He himself has Gerri Colombe, and he'll presumably know how they compare. It's already been suggested by both Henry and Declan Phelan that he's likely to be the Robcour horse for the Ballymore, so if that's the case you'd presume that Gordon might think Ginto has the better chance.

The only other horses that appear to be contenders that could be better are one of his own from Mighty Potter and Three Stripe Life. I expect both will turn up in the Supreme, Jack on MP and Davy on TSL. Then there's the 'lesser-spotted' Dysart Dynamo, who is the one that is potentially to be most feared. The lack of an entry is a worry though. And we've all seen the previous Mullins MO when they're quiet on one that's missing in action.

As I see it at the moment this is how I'd expect to see the Elliott novices split up:

Bartlett - Hollow Games
Ballymore - Ginto / Gerri Colombe
Supreme - Mighty Potter / Three Stripe Life

I think generally Gordon prefers to keep his best future staying chasers to two and two and half in their novice hurdle seasons, and you get the feeling that Ginto is the one he thinks could be the best of this seasons novices, and the one that might be a future Gold Cup horse. He looks more of a stayer than Samcro and Envoi Allen, but that's perhaps a good thing, because neither of those two properly went on, whereas I think Ginto will. Whilst I agree that he could possibly more vulnerable than those two going in to a Ballymore against a classy sharper type, as discussed he may not face one of those, and I think pushing him up in trip right now just isn't necessary. Nor is it likely to happen given he goes straight to the Festival now. To do so now would be a big call when he's never run beyond two and a half miles.

The best horse he's sent to the Bartlett is probably Fury Road. And that one has a very similar novice hurdle profile to Hollow Games. Ginto sticking at 2m4f and now going straight to the Festival has the profile of most of Elliott's better Ballymore horses, which means that's the way he's been thinking of him all along. Hollow Games was only in the race yesterday to find out if the Ballymore was a possibility, and all his initial instincts have been proven correct, in that he's a big galloper that needs 3 miles.

When all is considered I'm pretty confident that Elliott knows how he's splitting up his novice hurdlers now, and based on Christmas results and interviews I think my suggestion above is the most likely.

[Quevega]

I think all he knows is that some are graded class and can go straight to the festival, and others still need to show more. Or they'll be in a handicap if he likes the mark.

[Spectre]

I think all he knows is that some are graded class and can go straight to the festival, and others still need to show more. Or they'll be in a handicap if he likes the mark.

I disagree Q. Elliott follows very distinct plans with his horses. Yes they may prove him wrong sometimes and he needs to do something different, but he sets out with a plan in mind. With both of these the plan is still being followed. He said so in his interview after the race. Ginto straight to the Festival and Hollow Games to the DRF. Hollow Games was not run yesterday with a view to handicapping. He was full on trying.

That suggests that Ginto is on track, and Hollow Games has to do what's expected at Leopardstown. If he doesn't he could end up in a handicap if he underperforms. I'd be certain he's not being intentionally handicapped,. They want him in the Bartlett. He only goes to the Pipe as a backstop.

[Quevega]

I disagree Q. Elliott follows very distinct plans with his horses. Yes they may prove him wrong sometimes and he needs to do something different, but he sets out with a plan in mind. With both of these the plan is still being followed. He said so in his interview after the race. Ginto straight to the Festival and Hollow Games to the DRF. Hollow Games was not run yesterday with a view to handicapping. He was full on trying.

That suggests that Ginto is on track, and Hollow Games has to do what's expected at Leopardstown. If he doesn't he could end up in a handicap if he underperforms. I'd be certain he's not being intentionally handicapped,. They want him in the Bartlett. He only goes to the Pipe as a backstop.

Isn’t that exactly what I said ?
he learnt more after the lawlors obviously and then reacts accordingly
i never suggested hollow wasn’t trying

[Rooster Booster]

I disagree Q. Elliott follows very distinct plans with his horses. Yes they may prove him wrong sometimes and he needs to do something different, but he sets out with a plan in mind. With both of these the plan is still being followed. He said so in his interview after the race. Ginto straight to the Festival and Hollow Games to the DRF. Hollow Games was not run yesterday with a view to handicapping. He was full on trying.

That suggests that Ginto is on track, and Hollow Games has to do what's expected at Leopardstown. If he doesn't he could end up in a handicap if he underperforms. I'd be certain he's not being intentionally handicapped,. They want him in the Bartlett. He only goes to the Pipe as a backstop.

Or put another way if he goes to the MP he goes not ahead of his mark.