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He does look underestimated and if we get 4 places on the day, I'd struggle to see him out of the top 4. KS in the match markets may also be something I'd look at.
I’m fairly convinced he’d have been beaten yesterday if the runner up had jumped the last and I had a decent bet on KS.
He’s not beating the Irish pair so I can’t see any point in having an each way bet where 50% of your stake omis a near guaranteed loss.
Is the 4 place market not a better play on the day ?
My guess is that would be around 6/4 or bigger…
I wonder whether Gary Moore will send Teddy Blue here given he already has Porticello?? Has anyone seen any quotes from the Moore's after yesterday's race??
I’m fairly convinced he’d have been beaten yesterday if the runner up had jumped the last and I had a decent bet on KS.
He’s not beating the Irish pair so I can’t see any point in having an each way bet where 50% of your stake omis a near guaranteed loss.
Is the 4 place market not a better play on the day ?
My guess is that would be around 6/4 or bigger…
He was giving the runner up 5 pounds as well so Teddy Blue does need to improve if going to Cheltenham again.
The 4 place market would be the play. Based on him being 5th or 6th in the market, he should be 6/4 or higher as you say and I don't think there will be 4 better than him.
But 14s now is still a good price for those who haven't backed him. I don't think any of the horses in the race this year are as good as the top juveniles last year at this stage and I wouldn't be surprised to see KS fighting for the win with PP and Vauban.
I wonder whether Gary Moore will send Teddy Blue here given he already has Porticello?? Has anyone seen any quotes from the Moore's after yesterday's race??
The owners are keen to go and for me, unless it’s a bog, he will be much better suited to the Triumph than Porticello. I thought he’d have won with a good jump at the last yesterday… the long run in will suit and whilst probably not that relevant, he did beat Vauban on the flat.
The owners are keen to go and for me, unless it’s a bog, he will be much better suited to the Triumph than Porticello. I thought he’d have won with a good jump at the last yesterday… the long run in will suit and whilst probably not that relevant, he did beat Vauban on the flat.
Yep the Triumph should suit TB very well I would think.
He was giving the runner up 5 pounds as well so Teddy Blue does need to improve if going to Cheltenham again.
The 4 place market would be the play. Based on him being 5th or 6th in the market, he should be 6/4 or higher as you say and I don't think there will be 4 better than him.
But 14s now is still a good price for those who haven't backed him. I don't think any of the horses in the race this year are as good as the top juveniles last year at this stage and I wouldn't be surprised to see KS fighting for the win with PP and Vauban.
14/1 three places, assume, as I think you have to, that at least one of the Irish beat him your 1pt ew bet gives you a return of less than 4pts, a slightly under 2 pt profit, I’d rather have 2pts at 6/4 he finishes top 4, surely that’s not only a far better value play but you get the insurance of an extra place ?
14/1 three places, assume, as I think you have to, that at least one of the Irish beat him your 1pt ew bet gives you a return of less than 4pts, a slightly under 2 pt profit, I’d rather have 2pts at 6/4 he finishes top 4, surely that’s not only a far better value play but you get the insurance of an extra place ?
I'd do a small win bet at 14s and then have more on the place market. Covers the win just in case but the main bet would be the place.
I do think he's got a better than a 7% chance of winning and is underpriced compared to Porticello. I'd like to see the odds of Porticello vs Knight Salute in a match market on the day.
I’m fairly convinced he’d have been beaten yesterday if the runner up had jumped the last and I had a decent bet on KS.
He’s not beating the Irish pair so I can’t see any point in having an each way bet where 50% of your stake omis a near guaranteed loss.
Is the 4 place market not a better play on the day ?
My guess is that would be around 6/4 or bigger…
The Irish pair have looked exceptional and very good on the eye. However, whatever way you look at it, the Pied Piper Cheltenham form took a knock yesterday and his form ties in with Vauban. That brings both Knight Salute and Porticello (who also are closely tied) much closer to the Irish pair than originally thought. Makes it a much more interesting race . The English have a very, very good record in the Triumph and those two will definitely be in the mix this time around. No way should KS be the price he is based on yesterday's run . He should not be 6 times the price of the Irish pair.
I was just trying to wind lobos up, think we’re besties now so all good. I know KS has won at Cheltenham but that was a really poor race and didn’t think he was impressive at all. The best Irish horses would have won that race by half the track imo. He’s better suited to flat tracks like kempton and Doncaster, and I’d imagine aintree will suit.
I know KS has won at Cheltenham but that was a really poor race and didn’t think he was impressive at all. The best Irish horses would have won that race by half the track imo. He’s better suited to flat tracks like kempton and Doncaster, and I’d imagine aintree will suit.
He won on the Old Course, and there's a world of difference between the Old and New course...
I'd do a small win bet at 14s and then have more on the place market. Covers the win just in case but the main bet would be the place.
Yeah that makes sense.
I know a few that play the 80/20 place/win strategy, if you think he can win then having a bet (however small) on the win market is the right call as he'll probably be 20/1 or bigger...
However, whatever way you look at it, the Pied Piper Cheltenham form took a knock yesterday and his form ties in with Vauban.
I think I read similar comments last nigh but I was a bit drunk and thought it best not to comment, but I don't buy the form of PP/Vauban being devalued by the run of an average horse at Kempton...
I was just trying to wind lobos up, think we’re besties now so all good. I know KS has won at Cheltenham but that was a really poor race and didn’t think he was impressive at all. The best Irish horses would have won that race by half the track imo. He’s better suited to flat tracks like kempton and Doncaster, and I’d imagine aintree will suit.
Fair play Stud. I'm too old to wind up these days. So calm I'm permanently horizontal.
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