2022 Triumph Hurdle

[Wake and Labaik]

Anybody fancy In this world? I've not seen the french race but if he wins tomorrow impressively or not I'm guessing he won't go shorter than Fil dor so I'm happy to swerve him for now.

[Spectre]

Hard to know how literally to take the form. We now know Fil Dor is smart, but he's likely to have improved considerably since that debut run in France. In That World has to be useful to pick the race up the way he did, but he looked much sharper than Fil Dor on the day. It's hard to be conclusive about these things on a grainy video, but Fil Dor looked as though he was carrying a bit of condition, whereas In This World looked pretty straight.

In This World is getting a test today with a previous winner of Hawke's, and a King horse that has a decent flat rating and plenty of racing experience. I think it's more about how he performs than whether he wins the race. FWIW I think there is a tendency to take first runs a bit too literally on here. With novices hurdlers and chasers in particular the best time to start making an assessment is on their second run. The same is generally true about seasonal debuts. You wouldn't be writing Minella Indo off from winning the Gold Cup after Saturday's defeat, but people have Elle Est Belle in the bin. So as such if In This World gets turned over today, it wouldn't bother me unless he couldn't jump a twig and he was somewhere thereabouts.

I certainly wouldn't be backing him today though, just as I didn't back Elle Est Belle or Broomfield Burg yesterday. Backing novices on debut is the quickest way to the poorhouse.

[nortonscoin200]

Hard to know how literally to take the form. We now know Fil Dor is smart, but he's likely to have improved considerably since that debut run in France. In That World has to be useful to pick the race up the way he did, but he looked much sharper than Fil Dor on the day. It's hard to be conclusive about these things on a grainy video, but Fil Dor looked as though he was carrying a bit of condition, whereas In This World looked pretty straight.

In This World is getting a test today with a previous winner of Hawke's, and a King horse that has a decent flat rating and plenty of racing experience. I think it's more about how he performs than whether he wins the race. FWIW I think there is a tendency to take first runs a bit too literally on here. With novices hurdlers and chasers in particular the best time to start making an assessment is on their second run. The same is generally true about seasonal debuts. You wouldn't be writing Minella Indo off from winning the Gold Cup after Saturday's defeat, but people have Elle Est Belle in the bin. So as such if In This World gets turned over today, it wouldn't bother me unless he couldn't jump a twig and he was somewhere thereabouts.

I certainly wouldn't be backing him today though, just as I didn't back Elle Est Belle or Broomfield Burg yesterday. Backing novices on debut is the quickest way to the poorhouse.

Interesting thoughts Spectre.

I've also just rewatched In That World's French race again with a view to taking Lads 28-1.

But I question the form and have decided to pass.

I'd be very happy if I was among FJ members sitting on Fil Dor at 66-1 but it was far from a smooth performance by him in France.

Gordon seems to have worked the oracle on him but I'd be surprised if something better doesn't emerge in the next couple of months.

As for In The World, IMO he looked fairly ordinary over that 1m 6f trip and much as I like Dan Skelton he's only had one runner in the Triumph since 2010 - Allmankind who was 3rd last year.

It's a tricky race to get involved in early because you can be blind-sided by something which arrives on the scene very late.

Hendo's got serious form for playing his cards that way.

He won in 2019 with Pentland Hills who didn't make his hurdling debut until February 25 in a 4k maiden at Plumpton.

It was virtually the same in 2010 when Hendo brought Soldatino over from France after he won on his hurdling debut at Pau on January 2. Soldatino then bolted up in the Adonis and landed the Triumph at 6-1.

And in 2009 Hendo won with Zaynar who made his hurdling debut on December 17 winning a 3k novice hurdle at Newbury before following up in a modest 7k race at Ascot in January and then landing the spoils at Cheltenham.

[Spectre]

All very good points NC. I do think how you approach the Festival, or even specific races, means we can all potentially make different decisions from each other.

If you're looking to nail the winner with a couple of horses it's a race to play late. There's no point in worrying about getting fancy early prices. Just stake accordingly in the lead up to the race.

If you take the book approach, a back to lay approach, or even more of scatter gun approach, horses like In This World are worth consideration at this stage. Not for today's race, but certainly a decision as to whether it's worth getting 25/1 onside now for the Festival, when he could be 12/1 or 50/1 later depending on how the race unfolds.

[nortonscoin200]

All very good points NC. I do think how you approach the Festival, or even specific races, means we can all potentially make different decisions from each other.

If you're looking to nail the winner with a couple of horses it's a race to play late. There's no point in worrying about getting fancy early prices. Just stake accordingly in the lead up to the race.

If you take the book approach, a back to lay approach, or even more of scatter gun approach, horses like In This World are worth consideration at this stage. Not for today's race, but certainly a decision as to whether it's worth getting 25/1 onside now for the Festival, when he could be 12/1 or 50/1 later depending on how the race unfolds.

Agreed....also imagine it's no coincidence that In The World is making his hurdling debut in the same race Skelton used for Allmankind.

[Quevega]

Hard to know how literally to take the form. We now know Fil Dor is smart, but he's likely to have improved considerably since that debut run in France. In That World has to be useful to pick the race up the way he did, but he looked much sharper than Fil Dor on the day. It's hard to be conclusive about these things on a grainy video, but Fil Dor looked as though he was carrying a bit of condition, whereas In This World looked pretty straight.

In This World is getting a test today with a previous winner of Hawke's, and a King horse that has a decent flat rating and plenty of racing experience. I think it's more about how he performs than whether he wins the race. FWIW I think there is a tendency to take first runs a bit too literally on here. With novices hurdlers and chasers in particular the best time to start making an assessment is on their second run. The same is generally true about seasonal debuts. You wouldn't be writing Minella Indo off from winning the Gold Cup after Saturday's defeat, but people have Elle Est Belle in the bin. So as such if In This World gets turned over today, it wouldn't bother me unless he couldn't jump a twig and he was somewhere thereabouts.

I certainly wouldn't be backing him today though, just as I didn't back Elle Est Belle or Broomfield Burg yesterday. Backing novices on debut is the quickest way to the poorhouse.

I fully appreciate that you have to form an opinion based on what you know and have learned. But how can you possibly tell if this is the case or not, just by watching the video. Surely knowledge of the specific horses would be required. It's very guessey to the point of it being worthless.

I'd go along with the overall sentiment (patience & perspective) although for novices it is preferable to win maidens soon enough as generally (not always) the very best do. The problem with the second run is that it's likely to be a weaker race or of a similar standard.

And again, it depends on individual strategy, as the book builders would generally hold on for longer, than say someone who has limits on the number of live bets they want per race.
My personal view on this is that I let it happen naturally and set no real boundaries (which is often a mistake, but not always).
So I'll make a call after the race today, rightly or wrongly, stick or twist, and take it on the chin.

[Spectre]

I fully appreciate that you have to form an opinion based on what you know and have learned. But how can you possibly tell if this is the case or not, just by watching the video. Surely knowledge of the specific horses would be required. It's very guessey to the point of it being worthless.

Not at all Q. Clearly horses come in different shapes and sizes, but the ribline and what's under it a fair indication as to just how fit they are. As I said a video of the race isn't ideal, but you can visibly see the difference in conditioning in that race. One definitely has had more work that the other.

I also took the view to back him for the Triumph and to decide later by the way.

[Quevega]

Looked like a decent prospect.
The mistake looked like he was impeded/distracted, as overall he seemed to enjoy jumping, and fairly quickly too.

[Eggs]

….Hills 16-1, Sky go 14-1 In this World immediately after that win, other firms have cut to 12-1.

[Olliemagern]

Looked like a decent prospect.
The mistake looked like he was impeded/distracted, as overall he seemed to enjoy jumping, and fairly quickly too.

Think he jumped too fast and went into one that jumped it slowly so made it look an error. Couldn’t ask for much more on debut and the french race looks extremely strong now after both bolting up

[ComplyOrDie]

Hard to knock that performance from In This World, first time up over hurdles. Did it nicely enough.

[Big Bucks]

I liked that from In this world. Took the last and went off nicely. Good performance.

[Wake and Labaik]

Agreed, he looked to do it nicely and kept on the heels of the leaders after the bump 3 out was it? Made smooth headway and Harry never really had to get into him. Will want to see his jumping improve but that was perfectly satisfactory first time out. I was inclined to hold off backing him a few days ago but talked myself into it. 16's now is fair after that.

[Spectre]

That was really nice I thought. He and Fil Dor are obviously smart, and it's nice to have the second line on it now.

Skelton likes to send his best juvenile to the race, and the best of the UK juveniles both started out in this race the last two years.

Presumably In The World will go to the juvenile at Cheltenham's December meeting now, and will possibly get a course experience edge on Fil Dor, unless Gordon does likewise.

[Eggs]

Agreed, he looked to do it nicely and kept on the heels of the leaders after the bump 3 out was it? Made smooth headway and Harry never really had to get into him. Will want to see his jumping improve but that was perfectly satisfactory first time out. I was inclined to hold off backing him a few days ago but talked myself into it. 16's now is fair after that.

…Hills now 12-1 from 16s. Sky look the biggest at 14-1.