2022 Mares Novices Hurdle

[charlie]

Decided to see how IMPERVIOUS compares with horses who made the frame in the Mares Novice Hurdle over the last 5 years.

Stunning post norton, top top work! I'll pay all day for content like that (I cut the size to just first line so as not to take up space)

[Quevega]

Interesting stuff Norton’s but
how Many unplaced horses had achieved RPRs in the mid 130’s or better ?
id guess a good 4 or 5 in most renewals

[Quevega]

Not suggesting RPR’s are given out like confetti
but they are
aren’t they ??

[nortonscoin200]

Excellent analysis. I was thinking of digging into RPR thresholds for certain races that significantly increase the chance of placing or winning.

I guess a key additional angle here is how often horses that did not place had recorded an RPR previously over that number.

Essentially, if almost no horses that finished outside top 3 had hit over 137 here then Impervious looks an even better bet.

Good idea GB - it’s all yours!!
Jack mentioned Royal Kahala - she certainly bettered 137. I think she hit 141 in the run up to the Festival.

i don’t usually take much notice of rprs.

Always think the punters greatest weapon is being able to watch replays of every race these days. That’s a huge advantage for us compared to days of yore.

But trends - like the ones brilliantly exploited by Saxon Warrior- also have huge value.

And rprs can help confirm your visual appraisal or make you maybe question your enthusiasm for a bet.

That’s the only reason I did this exercise - because I was so impressed by Impervious at Down Royal and was looking for confirmation from another source.

Is this a load of bollocks or what!!

[Saxon Warrior]

Decided to see how IMPERVIOUS compares with horses who made the frame in the Mares Novice Hurdle over the last 5 years.

In her 3 hurdle runs so far Impervious has recorded rprs of 120, 133 and finally 137 at Down Royal on Friday.

2021

1.TELMESOMETHINGGIRL won the MNH with a rating of 143 on her 9th start over hurdles. She only managed a top figure of 123 on her first 6 starts then posted 137 and 138 on route to the Festival
2. MagicDaze posted 123, 128 and then 137 at Cheltenham.
3. Mighty Blue posted 122, 128, 131 and 135 at Cheltenham.

2020

1. CONCERTISTA posted 138 when she was 2nd in the 2019 MNH on her debut for Willie. She followed up with 120,127, 143 and 147 when she won at Cheltenham.
2. Dolcita got a mark of 113 in 2 French hurdle races before joining Willie. Then she posted 128, 131 and 135 at Cheltenham.
3. Rayna's World posted 113, 128 and 130 at Cheltenham.

2019

1. EGLANTINE DU SEUIL posted 118,124 and 138 for her Cheltenham win.
2. Concertista as above posted 138 on her debut at Cheltenham.
3. Tintangle got 107,113,128, 124,124 and 140 at Cheltenham.

2018

1 LAURINA 2 unrated hurdle runs in France before joining Willie. Then 121, 150 and 154 when she blitzed the field winning by 18 lengths at Cheltenham.
2. Cap Soleil posted 134, 134, 134 and the same 134 mark at Cheltenham.
3.Champagne Lady posted 95, 118, 120 and 129 at Cheltenham.

2017

1. LET'S DANCE was a second season novice who ran to 132 when 4th in the Triumph followed by 137 at Punchestown when 2nd to Apple's Jade. Next season she hit 141,146,146 and 146 again when winning at Cheltenham.
2. Barra posted 121, 123, 138, 133 and 138 at Cheltenham.
3. Dusky Legend posted 134 when she was second to Limini (148) in this in 2016 on her 5th start. Next season she hit 130,139,133 and 140 at Cheltenham.

Laying cards on the table, I backed Impervious for this after watching her 3 races and being particularly impressed with how she beat a useful field at Down Royal and seemed to have plenty left at the finish.

If you set aside the ratings given for runs at the Festival she has already posted a higher rpr than any of the places horses in the last 5 years apart from second season novice Dusky Legend who hit 139 on her 7th hurdle run.

Turning to the 5 winners:

Telmesomethinggirl managed 137 and 138 on her 7th and 8th starts before winning here.
Concertista posted 138 when runner up here on debut and then did a 143 on her final prep for the following year's Festival where she won.
Eglantine Du Seuil only managed a best of 124 before winning this.
Laurina is the MNH superstar with a 150 before she romped to victory here.
Let's Dance was a second season novice who hit 137 at the Punchestown Festival and then returned with 141, 148 and 146 before winning here.

So I'd say Impervious has already proved herself as good as 2 of the last 3 winners of this race at this stage of her career.

What's more, she doesn't have very much to find to match the standard set by Concertista and Let's Dance.

But if there's another Laurina lurking in Clossuton then everyone is playing for second place.

Impervious is still 16-1 with B365 but she's set a pretty high bar and the other market leaders will have to be pretty special to put her in the shade.

From watching the Down Royal race I also get the feeling there's more to come.

Superb stuff Norton’s,

She is good enough to Win the MNH.

The visuals of her win at Down Royal are good.

She just needs not to have a superstar from Closutton.

Well researched

[The Giant Bolster]

Good idea GB - it’s all yours!!
Jack mentioned Royal Kahala - he certainly bettered 137. I think he hit 141 in the run up to the Festival.

i don’t usually take much notice of rprs.

Always think the punters greatest weapon is being able to watch replays of every race these days. That’s a huge advantage for us compared to days of yore.

But trends - like the ones brilliantly exploited by Saxon Warrior- also have huge value.

And rprs can help confirm your visual appraisal or make you maybe question your enthusiasm for a bet.

That’s the only reason I did this exercise - because I was so impressed by Impervious at Down Royal and was looking for confirmation from another source.

Is this a load of bollocks or what!!

I've had a quick look. In those five races, there were a total of 89 runners. Of these 22 had hit RPRs of 137+ before their Festival run. So Impervious has already hit a high RPR in relative terms and one which most MNH runners definitely won't have matched.

The trick is whether this converts into a strong correlation to win/placing. I think it is less clear here since only 6 of these 22 horses rated 137+ then won or placed. So that's 6 of 15 potential top 3 places that were available going to those 137+ horses (40%).

Not sure what all this shows...! I guess this is down to so many MNH runners being unexposed and the unknown potential for improvement (as well as how accurate RPRs might be). For me, it has helped reinforce why I don't usually pay much attention to this race. Personally, I find it can be really tricky with big fields of unexposed horses. Impervious may still be good value as a result based on current odds but I'm personally holding back.

[Istabraq]

Not suggesting RPR’s are given out like confetti
but they are
aren’t they ??

I’ve often brushed over RPRs in the past but used them religiously with 2yo and first season 3yo flat horses during the Summer where I found them priceless.
Ultimately it’s only one mans view and people always hold differing opinions, I’ll go back to brushing over them for the NH season…

[Spectre]

I find them very helpful over 2 miles, and they become increasingly less reliable further up in trip.

[nortonscoin200]

I've had a quick look. In those five races, there were a total of 89 runners. Of these 22 had hit RPRs of 137+ before their Festival run. So Impervious has already hit a high RPR in relative terms and one which most MNH runners definitely won't have matched.

The trick is whether this converts into a strong correlation to win/placing. I think it is less clear here since only 6 of these 22 horses rated 137+ then won or placed. So that's 6 of 15 potential top 3 places that were available going to those 137+ horses (40%).

Not sure what all this shows...! I guess this is down to so many MNH runners being unexposed and the unknown potential for improvement (as well as how accurate RPRs might be). For me, it has helped reinforce why I don't usually pay much attention to this race. Personally, I find it can be really tricky with big fields of unexposed horses. Impervious may still be good value as a result based on current odds but I'm personally holding back.

Great stuff The Giant Bolster.

As a follow-up to your work I explored a theory that maybe the 16 who didn't place recorded their 137+ marks on heavy ground - and couldn't reproduce it in a faster run race on quicker conditions at Cheltenham where the Thursday going is usually good to soft.

Thought I'd cracked when looking at this year's renewal which was run on good to soft.

Six horses in the field had previously hit a mark of at least 137 but only Telmesomethinggirl made the frame.

Telmesomethinggirl got 137 over 2m 4f on good ground and 138 over 2m 2f on soft to heavy.

4th placed Skyace got 137 over 2m 4f on HEAVY.
7th Rosey's Hollow got 139 over 2m 2f on HEAVY
9th Royal Kahala got 141 over 2m 2f on HEAVY and 140 over 2m2f on HEAVY
11th Gauloise got 138 over 2m 2f on HEAVY
PU Perfect Myth got 140 over 2m 5f on good and was 3rd and going well at the second last which she hit, stumbled quite badly on landing and was soon pulled up. She hasn't raced since. So I'd say the jury is still out on her performance.

As you can imagine, I'm beginning to think these performances confirm my belief that you can't always trust apparently good heavy ground performances (particularly in Ireland) when it comes to backing horses at Cheltenham.

Maybe it's not a good example but I'm thinking Torygraph in the AB this year who did well on soft/heavy in his prep runs but wasn't quick enough at the Festival.

Anyway, turning to the 2020 MNH - run on soft ground - the theory takes a bit of a knock.

Only 3 horses in the field managed 137+ in the build-up

1st Concertista got 143 over 2m 2f on yielding ground and 138 over 2m 1f on good to soft in this same race a year earlier (finished second).
9th Floressa got 137 on 2m 1/2f on soft and 138 over 2m 1/2f on good to soft.
18th Minella Melody (who went off 11/4fav) got 141 over 2m 2f on yielding.

Were there other factors at play with Floressa and Minella Minella Melody - they finished 15l and 20l behind Black Tears in the Mares Hurdle this year.

Or is the theory redundant?

Gotta go out but maybe look back another year or two tomorrow....or maybe I'll get a life.

[Istabraq]

Some great work in here, well done.
One slight curveball from someone who considers trends, is it not possible that a heavy ground race earlier in the season bottoms a horse insofar they aren’t able to run to their true ability in March ?
I suspect horses down the field are looked after too….

[Lbur4288]

Some great work in here, well done.
One slight curveball from someone who considers trends, is it not possible that a heavy ground race earlier in the season bottoms a horse insofar they aren’t able to run to their true ability in March ?
I suspect horses down the field are looked after too….

Totally agree. Sometimes you might get more than one horse that is laid out for a specific target and I'd imagine that a good few have Cheltenham targets in mind.

I know a lot of people now are going on about Cheltenham not being the be-all-and-end-all of the NH season (which is correct but still...) but I do think there is more prestige to a Cheltenham winner other most other (if not all) races/meetings and that'll reflect when a few different connections of differing horses are talking up a certain race.

[Quevega]

I think most of the horses with high RPR's last year ran in the same mares race on heavy, which is the key trial for March in most years. The Solerina.

[Madmoose]

Ell Est Belle declared to run this week.

[The Giant Bolster]

Great stuff The Giant Bolster.

As a follow-up to your work I explored a theory that maybe the 16 who didn't place recorded their 137+ marks on heavy ground - and couldn't reproduce it in a faster run race on quicker conditions at Cheltenham where the Thursday going is usually good to soft.

Thought I'd cracked when looking at this year's renewal which was run on good to soft.

Six horses in the field had previously hit a mark of at least 137 but only Telmesomethinggirl made the frame.

Telmesomethinggirl got 137 over 2m 4f on good ground and 138 over 2m 2f on soft to heavy.

4th placed Skyace got 137 over 2m 4f on HEAVY.
7th Rosey's Hollow got 139 over 2m 2f on HEAVY
9th Royal Kahala got 141 over 2m 2f on HEAVY and 140 over 2m2f on HEAVY
11th Gauloise got 138 over 2m 2f on HEAVY
PU Perfect Myth got 140 over 2m 5f on good and was 3rd and going well at the second last which she hit, stumbled quite badly on landing and was soon pulled up. She hasn't raced since. So I'd say the jury is still out on her performance.

As you can imagine, I'm beginning to think these performances confirm my belief that you can't always trust apparently good heavy ground performances (particularly in Ireland) when it comes to backing horses at Cheltenham.

Maybe it's not a good example but I'm thinking Torygraph in the AB this year who did well on soft/heavy in his prep runs but wasn't quick enough at the Festival.

Anyway, turning to the 2020 MNH - run on soft ground - the theory takes a bit of a knock.

Only 3 horses in the field managed 137+ in the build-up

1st Concertista got 143 over 2m 2f on yielding ground and 138 over 2m 1f on good to soft in this same race a year earlier (finished second).
9th Floressa got 137 on 2m 1/2f on soft and 138 over 2m 1/2f on good to soft.
18th Minella Melody (who went off 11/4fav) got 141 over 2m 2f on yielding.

Were there other factors at play with Floressa and Minella Minella Melody - they finished 15l and 20l behind Black Tears in the Mares Hurdle this year.

Or is the theory redundant?

Gotta go out but maybe look back another year or two tomorrow....or maybe I'll get a life.

Really interesting. I am at home on childcare duties so got time to have a look further back.

2019:

Indefatigible
Posh Trish
Awayinthewest
Sinoria

All outside places at recorded their 137+ at SOFT or better.

2018:

Laurina won having recorded her RPR on Heavy
Maria's Benefit outside the places having record hers on SOFT

2017:

The top three and the ground they posted their RPR:

Let's Dance - GOOD/YIELDING
Barra - SOFT
Dusky Legend - GOOD/SOFT

And outside the top 3:

Verdana Blue - GOOD
Asthuria - SOFT/HEAVY
La Bague Au Roi - GOOD/SOFT
Forge Meadow - SOFT/HEAVY
Airlie Beach - GOOD/YIELDING

So I think there is something here since Laurina (who was arguably in a class above the others) is the only horse to have recorded an 137+ RPR on ground with HEAVY in the description and then won or placed at the Festival. Basically, treat 137+ runs on that ground with caution as form for this race (which was probably suspected already).

I'm not sure there is enough of a trend the other way though to say a 137+ on SOFT or better means a significantly stronger chance of winning or placing.

So - personally - I think this is still a race I'll remain reluctant to get stuck into and - when I do back something - I'll probably look at key trainer placing trends and apparent hierarchy mostly since they will have the best sense of the potential of these mostly unexposed runners. And bear in mind the HEAVY ground fact!

[Spectre]

Recording a best RPR on heavy for novices brings two problems when projecting forward to Cheltenham.

Firstly being able to run optimally on heavy suggests it's unlikely to be repeated on good to soft, or in particularly fast run races where cruising speed is as important as finishing speed.

Secondly running to that level often takes more out of horse than is ideal, and it makes it hard to repeat an optimal performance when horses can generally, unless let down for a mid-season break, only be peaked once in a season.

Laurina was a bit of a freak in the respect that she was just so much better than the opposition that year that it didn't matter, and although this race isn't that old, she remains the only one to have done it.

This doesn't just apply to novices of course. It's a very long time since a Gold Cup winner ran on heavy at any point during the season. The stat is sure to be broken at some point, but you have to ask yourself why that would be when we are talking about the very best staying chasers. That would be a worry for Eclat de Rire backers, but HdB has time to freshen him up given it was so early in the season. I also suspect if any horse is going to break the run it will perhaps be one that came out and ran on it early.