2022 Mares Novices Hurdle

[nortonscoin200]

Really interesting. I am at home on childcare duties so got time to have a look further back.

2019:

Indefatigible
Posh Trish
Awayinthewest
Sinoria

All outside places at recorded their 137+ at SOFT or better.

2018:

Laurina won having recorded her RPR on Heavy
Maria's Benefit outside the places having record hers on SOFT

2017:

The top three and the ground they posted their RPR:

Let's Dance - GOOD/YIELDING
Barra - SOFT
Dusky Legend - GOOD/SOFT

And outside the top 3:

Verdana Blue - GOOD
Asthuria - SOFT/HEAVY
La Bague Au Roi - GOOD/SOFT
Forge Meadow - SOFT/HEAVY
Airlie Beach - GOOD/YIELDING

So I think there is something here since Laurina (who was arguably in a class above the others) is the only horse to have recorded an 137+ RPR on ground with HEAVY in the description and then won or placed at the Festival. Basically, treat 137+ runs on that ground with caution as form for this race (which was probably suspected already).

I'm not sure there is enough of a trend the other way though to say a 137+ on SOFT or better means a significantly stronger chance of winning or placing.

So - personally - I think this is still a race I'll remain reluctant to get stuck into and - when I do back something - I'll probably look at key trainer placing trends and apparent hierarchy mostly since they will have the best sense of the potential of these mostly unexposed runners. And bear in mind the HEAVY ground fact!

Lovely job The Giant Bolster.

A couple of others things I noticed while looking through the last 5 years of the MNH were the star names that appear among several of the horses who failed to hit 137+ before Cheltenham and duly finished unplaced. They include Colreevy (5th), Mount Ida (10th), Black Tears (4th), Elfile (6th), Epatante (9th), Verdana Blue (4th) and Airlie Beach (14th).

There are some other plus points to take from Impervious's 3 wins.

Her debut was a 16 runner race where she was pulling and held up in midfield. She'll face a big field at the Festival.

Her second run was over 2m 4f on good to yielding ground and she posted a very decent 131 rpr.

Her latest run was back to the 2m 1f MNH trip on soft ground and she won with a 137 rpr.

So she has proved herself over the MNH trip and 3 furlongs further.

She seems to be - wait for it - impervious to different ground conditions.

And unlike some of the horses who only hit 137+ after several starts Impervious has done it after just 3 - that's far from unique in this sphere but it does give encouragement that she may be capable of significant improvement.

[Lobos]

Right, there's been too much conversation re Impervious. Agree she looks very good but If Gypsy Island turns up here then she's the one to beat imo.

[darlojim]

Right, there's been too much conversation re Impervious. Agree she looks very good but If Gypsy Island turns up here then she's the one to beat imo.

Has there been a word on Gypsy Island since her comeback win :/ ? That win is almost 6 months ago now which seems insane! I have a bad feeling about her

[Lobos]

Has there been a word on Gypsy Island since her comeback win :/ ? That win is almost 6 months ago now which seems insane! I have a bad feeling about her

Think they just wanted to get her out early, prove her fitness, blow some cobwebs away, rest up and then get her out again for the next big day. If she brings her A game then she's the one to beat

[darlojim]

Think they just wanted to get her out early, prove her fitness, blow some cobwebs away, rest up and then get her out again for the next big day. If she brings her A game then she's the one to beat

I hope your right as I'm a massive fan of hers.

I remember Peter Fahey had an interview the other week and was asked about a few of his including Royal Kahala and GI wasn't even given a mention or asked about. Hopefully I'm wrong though!

[That Horse]

Elle est belle running in five minutes time at Newbury

[Stormez]

Elle est belle running in five minutes time at Newbury

Similar to Good Risk At All yesterday, didn’t jump well at the business end & was put away easily.

Bumpers to novice hurdles continues to be the biggest leap into the unknown!

[Lobos]

Cheltenham Bumper Form let down there !

[Brooksie]

not a brilliant start, but it was a pretty slowly run race, a truer run race would have suited. Bit awkward at a few flights too, didn't look that natural. Work to do.

[Atlantic Viking]

Looks like she needs a fence. Decent from the winner though.

[PresentingPercy]

not a brilliant start, but it was a pretty slowly run race, a truer run race would have suited. Bit awkward at a few flights too, didn't look that natural. Work to do.

In fairness, last years Ch bumper was a run at a crawl for the first 2 or 3 furlongs. She was able to cope well in that environment so no reason why she couldn't do it today against inferior opposition in my opinion

[JackieMoon33]

not a brilliant start, but it was a pretty slowly run race, a truer run race would have suited. Bit awkward at a few flights too, didn't look that natural. Work to do.

Knowing Skelton he's already plotting her up for the County

[Olliemagern]

Wouldn’t be rushing to swap impervious for anything we’ve seen so far. Just need to see what mr Mullins and Henry have in the barn

[Big Bucks]

Knowing Skelton he's already plotting her up for the County

Anyone doing any odds on "X" amount of mares to win at the Fez!

[Ray]

Anyone doing any odds on "X" amount of mares to win at the Fez!

A mare aint won the county since the early 90s and then before that for a long long time!