2022 Mares Novices Hurdle

[Lobos]

Impervious...

When asked to compare her with the mares he has had in the past, he said: “It is hard to compare them, but on the evidence of that she is right up there with them.
“She has stamina and she has plenty of pace. She has the right ingredients to keep climbing the ladder.”


The more you hear, the better she sounds

[Irish Rugby]

If it's not trained by one of the big Irish 3, we can expect this and exploit it. Gavin Cromwell, John McConnell and he even to some extent Jessica Harrington. Noel Meade's Jeff Kidder probably another one.

[Black Dog]

Belle Metal 20/1. Decent bumper form,decent write up,and Paddy's taken a view.

[charlie]

Impervious...

When asked to compare her with the mares he has had in the past, he said: “It is hard to compare them, but on the evidence of that she is right up there with them.
“She has stamina and she has plenty of pace. She has the right ingredients to keep climbing the ladder.”


The more you hear, the better she sounds

Agree, but need to keep our feet on the ground - for all we know Willie could have 2nd and 3rd string better than her. Or someone could buy her and send her to Willie, thats another option

[On The Fringe]

Ashroe Diamond
4f Walk In The Park - Saine D'Esprit
Blue Blood Racing Club
12
RPR 113b
She looked very impressive when winning at Wexford in May before finishing second in a competitive Galway festival bumper. I'd imagine she'll go hurdling this season and, like most of our novice mares, we'll be looking at the Grade 1 mares' novice hurdle at Fairyhouse and/or the mares' novice hurdle at Cheltenham. I think she has good ability.

[Zachx02]

Ashroe Diamond
4f Walk In The Park - Saine D'Esprit
Blue Blood Racing Club
12
RPR 113b
She looked very impressive when winning at Wexford in May before finishing second in a competitive Galway festival bumper. I'd imagine she'll go hurdling this season and, like most of our novice mares, we'll be looking at the Grade 1 mares' novice hurdle at Fairyhouse and/or the mares' novice hurdle at Cheltenham. I think she has good ability.

Love that, her and Allegorie De Vassy I really like for this

[On The Fringe]

Love that, her and Allegorie De Vassy I really like for this

100% with you on this

[nortonscoin200]

Decided to see how IMPERVIOUS compares with horses who made the frame in the Mares Novice Hurdle over the last 5 years.

In her 3 hurdle runs so far Impervious has recorded rprs of 120, 133 and finally 137 at Down Royal on Friday.

2021

1.TELMESOMETHINGGIRL won the MNH with a rating of 143 on her 9th start over hurdles. She only managed a top figure of 123 on her first 6 starts then posted 137 and 138 on route to the Festival
2. MagicDaze posted 123, 128 and then 137 at Cheltenham.
3. Mighty Blue posted 122, 128, 131 and 135 at Cheltenham.

2020

1. CONCERTISTA posted 138 when she was 2nd in the 2019 MNH on her debut for Willie. She followed up with 120,127, 143 and 147 when she won at Cheltenham.
2. Dolcita got a mark of 113 in 2 French hurdle races before joining Willie. Then she posted 128, 131 and 135 at Cheltenham.
3. Rayna's World posted 113, 128 and 130 at Cheltenham.

2019

1. EGLANTINE DU SEUIL posted 118,124 and 138 for her Cheltenham win.
2. Concertista as above posted 138 on her debut at Cheltenham.
3. Tintangle got 107,113,128, 124,124 and 140 at Cheltenham.

2018

1 LAURINA 2 unrated hurdle runs in France before joining Willie. Then 121, 150 and 154 when she blitzed the field winning by 18 lengths at Cheltenham.
2. Cap Soleil posted 134, 134, 134 and the same 134 mark at Cheltenham.
3.Champagne Lady posted 95, 118, 120 and 129 at Cheltenham.

2017

1. LET'S DANCE was a second season novice who ran to 132 when 4th in the Triumph followed by 137 at Punchestown when 2nd to Apple's Jade. Next season she hit 141,146,146 and 146 again when winning at Cheltenham.
2. Barra posted 121, 123, 138, 133 and 138 at Cheltenham.
3. Dusky Legend posted 134 when she was second to Limini (148) in this in 2016 on her 5th start. Next season she hit 130,139,133 and 140 at Cheltenham.

Laying cards on the table, I backed Impervious for this after watching her 3 races and being particularly impressed with how she beat a useful field at Down Royal and seemed to have plenty left at the finish.

If you set aside the ratings given for runs at the Festival she has already posted a higher rpr than any of the places horses in the last 5 years apart from second season novice Dusky Legend who hit 139 on her 7th hurdle run.

Turning to the 5 winners:

Telmesomethinggirl managed 137 and 138 on her 7th and 8th starts before winning here.
Concertista posted 138 when runner up here on debut and then did a 143 on her final prep for the following year's Festival where she won.
Eglantine Du Seuil only managed a best of 124 before winning this.
Laurina is the MNH superstar with a 150 before she romped to victory here.
Let's Dance was a second season novice who hit 137 at the Punchestown Festival and then returned with 141, 148 and 146 before winning here.

So I'd say Impervious has already proved herself as good as 2 of the last 3 winners of this race at this stage of her career.

What's more, she doesn't have very much to find to match the standard set by Concertista and Let's Dance.

But if there's another Laurina lurking in Clossuton then everyone is playing for second place.

Impervious is still 16-1 with B365 but she's set a pretty high bar and the other market leaders will have to be pretty special to put her in the shade.

From watching the Down Royal race I also get the feeling there's more to come.

[jack1092]

Interesting post Norton, and i really like her too (not backed her).

Worth noting though, i would guess if you looked at say, Royal Kahala, you'd have had similar results from the stats?

She's got her grade 3 in the bag, i'd be looking to take in 1 more race between now and Chelt and keep her fresh.

[Guinness Village]

Can't see any mention of idoles des jeunes on willie's stable tour. Any news anyone?

[germanshepherd]

Decided to see how IMPERVIOUS compares with horses who made the frame in the Mares Novice Hurdle over the last 5 years.

In her 3 hurdle runs so far Impervious has recorded rprs of 120, 133 and finally 137 at Down Royal on Friday.

2021

1.TELMESOMETHINGGIRL won the MNH with a rating of 143 on her 9th start over hurdles. She only managed a top figure of 123 on her first 6 starts then posted 137 and 138 on route to the Festival
2. MagicDaze posted 123, 128 and then 137 at Cheltenham.
3. Mighty Blue posted 122, 128, 131 and 135 at Cheltenham.

2020

1. CONCERTISTA posted 138 when she was 2nd in the 2019 MNH on her debut for Willie. She followed up with 120,127, 143 and 147 when she won at Cheltenham.
2. Dolcita got a mark of 113 in 2 French hurdle races before joining Willie. Then she posted 128, 131 and 135 at Cheltenham.
3. Rayna's World posted 113, 128 and 130 at Cheltenham.

2019

1. EGLANTINE DU SEUIL posted 118,124 and 138 for her Cheltenham win.
2. Concertista as above posted 138 on her debut at Cheltenham.
3. Tintangle got 107,113,128, 124,124 and 140 at Cheltenham.

2018

1 LAURINA 2 unrated hurdle runs in France before joining Willie. Then 121, 150 and 154 when she blitzed the field winning by 18 lengths at Cheltenham.
2. Cap Soleil posted 134, 134, 134 and the same 134 mark at Cheltenham.
3.Champagne Lady posted 95, 118, 120 and 129 at Cheltenham.

2017

1. LET'S DANCE was a second season novice who ran to 132 when 4th in the Triumph followed by 137 at Punchestown when 2nd to Apple's Jade. Next season she hit 141,146,146 and 146 again when winning at Cheltenham.
2. Barra posted 121, 123, 138, 133 and 138 at Cheltenham.
3. Dusky Legend posted 134 when she was second to Limini (148) in this in 2016 on her 5th start. Next season she hit 130,139,133 and 140 at Cheltenham.

Laying cards on the table, I backed Impervious for this after watching her 3 races and being particularly impressed with how she beat a useful field at Down Royal and seemed to have plenty left at the finish.

If you set aside the ratings given for runs at the Festival she has already posted a higher rpr than any of the places horses in the last 5 years apart from second season novice Dusky Legend who hit 139 on her 7th hurdle run.

Turning to the 5 winners:

Telmesomethinggirl managed 137 and 138 on her 7th and 8th starts before winning here.
Concertista posted 138 when runner up here on debut and then did a 143 on her final prep for the following year's Festival where she won.
Eglantine Du Seuil only managed a best of 124 before winning this.
Laurina is the MNH superstar with a 150 before she romped to victory here.
Let's Dance was a second season novice who hit 137 at the Punchestown Festival and then returned with 141, 148 and 146 before winning here.

So I'd say Impervious has already proved herself as good as 2 of the last 3 winners of this race at this stage of her career.

What's more, she doesn't have very much to find to match the standard set by Concertista and Let's Dance.

But if there's another Laurina lurking in Clossuton then everyone is playing for second place.

Impervious is still 16-1 with B365 but she's set a pretty high bar and the other market leaders will have to be pretty special to put her in the shade.

From watching the Down Royal race I also get the feeling there's more to come.

Interesting stats if you think RPRs are gospel but the 2nd is crap.

[Irish Rugby]

While we quite rightly concentrate on the Mullins, Elliott and De Bromhead stars, and can be somewhat swayed just because it is those trainers, there's a lot to be said by these smaller outfits and their one off stable stars. Impervious is just such an example. Hanlon's SkyAce is another. Paul Hennessy's Heaven Help Us as well. They tend to go underbet becuase of their connections If they were trained by one of the big 3, they'd be half the price.

This year's festival also had Irish winners from Gavin Cromwell, Noel Meade, Peter Fahey, Emmett Mullins and Paul Hennessy.

[Quevega]

While we quite rightly concentrate on the Mullins, Elliott and De Bromhead stars, and can be somewhat swayed just because it is those trainers, there's a lot to be said by these smaller outfits and their one off stable stars. Impervious is just such an example. Hanlon's SkyAce is another. Paul Hennessy's Heaven Help Us as well. They tend to go underbet becuase of their connections If they were trained by one of the big 3, they'd be half the price.

This year's festival also had Irish winners from Gavin Cromwell, Noel Meade, Peter Fahey, Emmett Mullins and Paul Hennessy.

Doesn't always mean horses with trainers like these are good antepost punting prospects though.
Can always back them after decs or NRNB.

[Kevloaf]

Doesn't always mean horses with trainers like these are good antepost punting prospects though.
Can always back them after decs or NRNB.

Or on the day with additional places, etc.


I think that's a very good point, as Irish Rugby is absolutely right, they are more likely to be underbet.

Which is always a good thing.

[The Giant Bolster]

Decided to see how IMPERVIOUS compares with horses who made the frame in the Mares Novice Hurdle over the last 5 years.

In her 3 hurdle runs so far Impervious has recorded rprs of 120, 133 and finally 137 at Down Royal on Friday.

2021

1.TELMESOMETHINGGIRL won the MNH with a rating of 143 on her 9th start over hurdles. She only managed a top figure of 123 on her first 6 starts then posted 137 and 138 on route to the Festival
2. MagicDaze posted 123, 128 and then 137 at Cheltenham.
3. Mighty Blue posted 122, 128, 131 and 135 at Cheltenham.

2020

1. CONCERTISTA posted 138 when she was 2nd in the 2019 MNH on her debut for Willie. She followed up with 120,127, 143 and 147 when she won at Cheltenham.
2. Dolcita got a mark of 113 in 2 French hurdle races before joining Willie. Then she posted 128, 131 and 135 at Cheltenham.
3. Rayna's World posted 113, 128 and 130 at Cheltenham.

2019

1. EGLANTINE DU SEUIL posted 118,124 and 138 for her Cheltenham win.
2. Concertista as above posted 138 on her debut at Cheltenham.
3. Tintangle got 107,113,128, 124,124 and 140 at Cheltenham.

2018

1 LAURINA 2 unrated hurdle runs in France before joining Willie. Then 121, 150 and 154 when she blitzed the field winning by 18 lengths at Cheltenham.
2. Cap Soleil posted 134, 134, 134 and the same 134 mark at Cheltenham.
3.Champagne Lady posted 95, 118, 120 and 129 at Cheltenham.

2017

1. LET'S DANCE was a second season novice who ran to 132 when 4th in the Triumph followed by 137 at Punchestown when 2nd to Apple's Jade. Next season she hit 141,146,146 and 146 again when winning at Cheltenham.
2. Barra posted 121, 123, 138, 133 and 138 at Cheltenham.
3. Dusky Legend posted 134 when she was second to Limini (148) in this in 2016 on her 5th start. Next season she hit 130,139,133 and 140 at Cheltenham.

Laying cards on the table, I backed Impervious for this after watching her 3 races and being particularly impressed with how she beat a useful field at Down Royal and seemed to have plenty left at the finish.

If you set aside the ratings given for runs at the Festival she has already posted a higher rpr than any of the places horses in the last 5 years apart from second season novice Dusky Legend who hit 139 on her 7th hurdle run.

Turning to the 5 winners:

Telmesomethinggirl managed 137 and 138 on her 7th and 8th starts before winning here.
Concertista posted 138 when runner up here on debut and then did a 143 on her final prep for the following year's Festival where she won.
Eglantine Du Seuil only managed a best of 124 before winning this.
Laurina is the MNH superstar with a 150 before she romped to victory here.
Let's Dance was a second season novice who hit 137 at the Punchestown Festival and then returned with 141, 148 and 146 before winning here.

So I'd say Impervious has already proved herself as good as 2 of the last 3 winners of this race at this stage of her career.

What's more, she doesn't have very much to find to match the standard set by Concertista and Let's Dance.

But if there's another Laurina lurking in Clossuton then everyone is playing for second place.

Impervious is still 16-1 with B365 but she's set a pretty high bar and the other market leaders will have to be pretty special to put her in the shade.

From watching the Down Royal race I also get the feeling there's more to come.

Excellent analysis. I was thinking of digging into RPR thresholds for certain races that significantly increase the chance of placing or winning.

I guess a key additional angle here is how often horses that did not place had recorded an RPR previously over that number.

Essentially, if almost no horses that finished outside top 3 had hit over 137 here then Impervious looks an even better bet.