Originally posted by TigerRolllllll
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2022 Mares Novices Hurdle
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Originally posted by Zachx02 View Post
I did really like Heia on her 2nd run, came on a lot
Surely worth a decent play NRNB? Most likely ride for Rachael and in those colours!!! Will be hammered on day…..back now and can lay off some if want to on day
Now big play for meFat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
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Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostI think I'm going to add Mighty Blue at 20/1 NRNB here.
Placed in the race last year.... (3rd) ahead of Skyace, The Glancing Queen, Glens of Antrim, Martello Sky, Royal Kahala, Gauloise, Hook Up etc...
Magic Daze was ahead and finished a close 2nd in a Grade 2 this year behind Concertista, the winner Telmesomethinggirl is fav for the Mares Hurdle....
and after running in graded races on the flat, then a big break before returning to hurdles I can only assume this is the plan to run here again as a second season novice.
She'll have 'learnt plenty' and should come back a better mare this time around? Second season novice has won this race before, albeit for Willie...but we all know I love Joseph so I'm still positive.
She kind of fits the 'unsexy' returning horse profile that often get overlooked, as she didn't get the job done last year....however I'm willing to chance that at 20/1 (compared to 12/1 last year) that she's improved and is better for the experience since.
An obvious negative is unseating a couple of weeks back in the race the Goven won when she was fav.... the RP comments: "Chased leaders, pressed leaders after 3 out, went second and every chance 2 out, ridden and 1 length down when mistake and unseated rider last".
Now I started to really fancy Goven for a handicap, and none of this is putting me off her.
I know plenty of us have the head of the market and the sexy Mullins mares covered, and nothing puts me off them, it's justthat the market is assuming (maybe rightly so) that this years crop are better than the last years, and I'd say that's unproven so far, so at 20/1 nrnb, she's worth a poke to at least make the frame again.
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Statuaire is definitely a value bet @ 20/1. My Mate Mozzie, Mighty Potter and Impervious arrived there race fit and well fancied and she beat the lot off a 165 day break having strung together a couple of wins over the summer. Thats one of the strongest pieces of form going. Sure, she blotted her copybook LTO vs the boys, but most horses (barring Dinoblue) towards the top of the market have to be forgiven a disappointing run and I think she'll hit the frame at a big price.
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Originally posted by charlie View PostStatuaire is definitely a value bet @ 20/1. My Mate Mozzie, Mighty Potter and Impervious arrived there race fit and well fancied and she beat the lot off a 165 day break having strung together a couple of wins over the summer. Thats one of the strongest pieces of form going. Sure, she blotted her copybook LTO vs the boys, but most horses (barring Dinoblue) towards the top of the market have to be forgiven a disappointing run and I think she'll hit the frame at a big price.
….might be more coincidence than trend, but Statuaire came 6th in the race won by Sir G at DRF, the same contest GDC came 6th in last year for Mullins before winning the MP.
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Originally posted by Maxfield View Post
I'm with you on this and I think you mentioned Statuaire previously as well. I don't know why they're both 20/1 shots when Brandy Love is 11/4 and Dinoblue is 3/1. Certainly taking them on with these two 20/1 e/w shots. I just don't rate the front two in the market. I'm still hoping Skelton changes his mind and sends Elle Est Belle here, even with the penalty I see her as the winner.
Been banging the Statuaire overpriced drum NRNB for a while too as you say.
I do like the front of the market though, however they have no real juice in the prices.
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Originally posted by ToniC View Post
What was the comment? I half had my eye on her for the county hurdle
Didn't name a target, but all chat was about being "well in", "well handicapped" etc. which implies a handicap route.
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Have nothing for this as it stands now ADV is out.
Can't be having Brandy Love after last time (even though i imagine the switch to left handed will help). Dinoblue and Statuaire would be the two id be backing with a gun to my head at this stage. But will wait until the day as suspect thisll be a big field with plenty of bookies going 5 and 6 places.
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Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
Yeah, doesn't seem a popular pick.
Been banging the Statuaire overpriced drum NRNB for a while too as you say.
I do like the front of the market though, however they have no real juice in the prices.
STATUAIRE won a Grade One earlier in the season and if we get a dry week the ground will probably be coming right for her. Her handicap mark wouldn’t suggest she’s good enough but I think she’s a lot better on better ground.
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Hard to know if that's a suggestion for her going here from the written quote at least? If he thinks she's better than her mark then a handicap must be a consideration?
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