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This is what I wrote in my diary:
Mullins has dominated, but De Bromhead has won and also placed multiple times, and Elliott has also had multiple placers. Just back their's blind, Also consider Dan Skelton is on the up and seems to be buying good novice mares for bumpers and hurdles. Just focus on those four trainers and get there's in the book. Those horses not needed, not good enough, or likely to go elsewhere can be cashed out or laid later. Also consider Mullins may go mob handed this year to win the race back. If any horse from the big stables posts 145 and above increase stakes, and consider decreasing stakes elsewhere. Don't keep horses for the sake of it, and move them out quickly.
I think Willie is essentially facing increased competition to buy the best mares, and he won't be as dominant moving forward. That said I think he will be determined to win this again this season and may go mob-handed. He seems to have more potential mares for this than ever before. Gypsy Island aside, who wants watching given her ability and problems, I can't see this race falling outside of the four stables I mentioned. And given the each way prices that have won and placed in the last few seasons it's easy to just back all the players from the stables mentioned and adjust as the season unfolds.
- Four of Willie Mullins winners were OR over 140 (141, 144, 147, and 145), Elegantine the exception. He didn't have a 140+ runner last year and didn't win it.
- Willie also isn't getting a free run buying the best mares anymore.
- Both Concertista and Telmesomethinggirl were 3rd in the Mares Handicap Hurdle at the DRF.
- In the last three seasons there have been huge place payouts from top stables 20/1 Mullins, 22/1 De Bromhead, 25/1 Elliott, 25/1, 40/1 Elliott, 50/1, and 66/1 Mullins, plus Elegantine du Seuil winning at 66/1 for Mullins. Definitely an angle for backing outsider from the big 3, plus they'll likely have the winner.
- 2 from 6 were secon season novices from the Mullins stable.
Mullins has dominated, but De Bromhead has won and also placed multiple times, and Elliott has also had multiple placers. Just back their's blind, Also consider Dan Skelton is on the up and seems to be buying good novice mares for bumpers and hurdles. Just focus on those four trainers and get there's in the book. Those horses not needed, not good enough, or likely to go elsewhere can be cashed out or laid later. Also consider Mullins may go mob handed this year to win the race back. If any horse from the big stables posts 145 and above increase stakes, and consider decreasing stakes elsewhere. Don't keep horses for the sake of it, and move them out quickly.
I think Willie is essentially facing increased competition to buy the best mares, and he won't be as dominant moving forward. That said I think he will be determined to win this again this season and may go mob-handed. He seems to have more potential mares for this than ever before. Gypsy Island aside, who wants watching given her ability and problems, I can't see this race falling outside of the four stables I mentioned. And given the each way prices that have won and placed in the last few seasons it's easy to just back all the players from the stables mentioned and adjust as the season unfolds.
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