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Apparently champ most likely here. Dunno how to add a link but on racing post.
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Makes sense to me cause i can't have him winning a gold cup, not got a penny on him though.Comment
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Taking a risk going Cleeve as opposed to a chase with Champ I reckon. He's already proved himself over hurdles this season so why not send him to Cotswold Chase and if he bombs just let him run in Stayers?? By doing it this way around he'll not have any chance to revert to chasing if he blows out in the Cleeve. Wouldn't touch him with one of Archie's barge poles for either race though.Comment
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In response to my view on Champ being 7lb shy of Klassical Dream and Flooring Porter, the basis is my own ratings. RPR's have him 6lbs and 4 lbs short, so they don't massively disagree.
The two 170/'s pointed to that he was given over fences were ludicrous and complete rubbish. There was no basis to give them to him other than an assessor doing a poor job, and every way round I crunched the numbers the highest I could give him for that was 163 for the Bartlett, and 160 for the 2 mile race at Newbury.
Bear in mind he was the beneficiary of a complete pace collapse in the Bartlett where he was completely done for tow and out with the washing, not jumping very well at all and 170 was palpable nonsense. The other 170 was in a 2 mile chase (yes a 2 mile chase!!!), where he was beaten by Sceau Royal who had put up nothing better than 150's ratings all season.
His 165 last time over hurdles is also slightly on the high side. The time didn't back it up and the assessor has used assumptions on the level of form achieved from those behind him which I believe to be dubious at best.
The RPR team seem to love him and are consistently generous in the marks they give him. Unfortunately he has a series of ratings to his name that are inflated. And even if they were true, they are still short of what he needs to beat the other two, and as a ten year old he's not likely to be improving a another half a stone. and even if he did he is against two horses that are far more likely to still have improvement in them.
Ultimately it's a game of opinions, and I'm very strong with my position on him. But it doesn't guarantee I'm right, so if anyone feels he's the winner I'd never tell them not to back him.Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.Comment
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Surely he's more at risk (physically) in a chase.Originally posted by Lobos View Post
Run him in the Cotswold and he could end up with no options at the festival.Comment
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Well we’ve got some telling the trainer what to do, and also telling the ratings guys they are wrong.
In this case I would trust the trainer and leave him to make the decisions and get on with it.
As for the ratings I often disagree with them, so would have no issue with disagreeing with ratings put up by a fellow forumite.
Yep all about opinions.
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Risk probably not the right word, as it's risk averse in terms of targets, but I agree with the point.... why not go over fences...Originally posted by Lobos View Post
Benjy23 saying "could end up with no options" is the kind of sentence that is potentially damaging for the future of the sport (hyperbole of course)... but if you think a horse jumping fences is dangerous and wrong and unsafe....Comment
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Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
Behave lad.
I'm not saying all horses jumping fences is wrong. I'm saying running a horse that's got a history of jumping fences badly and a history of back issues, in a chase (just to have a look at an option) around one month before its intended target for the season is a risky plan. When there's a perfectly viable option over hurdles. Could even just affect the horses confidence when he's pulled up halfway, or cause him to jump his hurdles big when he reverts to the Stayers back in race conditions.
Risky was the world used to describe the hurdles plan. I was merely suggesting it was actually the less risky of the options. In a possibly exaggerated way...
Now let me go and join that animal rights protest...Last edited by Benjy23; 19 January 2022, 06:41 AM.Comment
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Yep, hopefully I’m not the only one who understood what you were saying Benjy. Absolutely makes sense.Originally posted by Benjy23 View Post
Behave lad.
I'm not saying all horses jumping fences is wrong. I'm saying running a horse that's got a history of jumping fences badly and a history of back issues, in a chase (just to have a look at an option) around one month before its intended target for the season is a risky plan. When there's a perfectly viable option over hurdles. Could even just affect the horses confidence when he's pulled up halfway, or cause him to jump his hurdles big when he reverts to the Stayers back in race conditions.
Risky was the world used to describe the hurdles plan. I was merely suggesting it was actually the less risky of the options. In a possibly exaggerated way...
Now let me go and join that animal rights protest...
Champ seems to be a marmite horse.
People saying would not touch him with a bargepole , rants about his ratings given to him.
Others like me saying he’s the most likely winner, has a big chance etc etc.
Still at least we know it’s all about opinions, and those that fancy him are not being told not to back him!!
Going to be a fun day on the Thursday if Champ lines up!!!
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Given how weak the Stayers Hurdle has been compared to some of the other Championship races in recent times, it looks like we have a cracker on our hands this year.
Fingers crossed the top four in the market all make it for March!Comment
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Much better explanation than the first time around.Originally posted by Benjy23 View Post
Behave lad.
I'm not saying all horses jumping fences is wrong. I'm saying running a horse that's got a history of jumping fences badly and a history of back issues, in a chase (just to have a look at an option) around one month before its intended target for the season is a risky plan. When there's a perfectly viable option over hurdles. Could even just affect the horses confidence when he's pulled up halfway, or cause him to jump his hurdles big when he reverts to the Stayers back in race conditions.
Risky was the world used to describe the hurdles plan. I was merely suggesting it was actually the less risky of the options. In a possibly exaggerated way...
Now let me go and join that animal rights protest...
I agree.
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Sky have a 'Antepost Non Irish Trained' market with Champ priced up @ 7/4. As far as I'm concerned his only real 'rival' this side of the Irish Sea is Thyme Hill, who he accounted for on debut when TH was race fit. I'd be fairly sure that form will hold, and the rest wouldn't touch him. Given this race now looks the likely target, and he's 8/11 to place, I think 7/4 is a good acca leg price how this looks likely.
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Available in the Gold cup and Champion hurdle markets as wellOriginally posted by charlie View PostComment
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