2022 Stayers Hurdle

[Saxon Warrior]

Paul Nolan's interview said that he had a little problem, but all looks okay now, and they've been thinking of a plan for him.

When pressed he said a return to hurdles, and specifically the Stayers Hurdle.

There wasnt much of a "might go there", he was quite specific, and it sounded like its exactly what they are going to try out.

There's plenty of prize money, and easier picking through the season, potentially.

33/1 for the Stayers had to be taken as soon as I heard that interview, considering Thyme Hill is 5/1 fav

[jack1092]

Thats a bit harsh Robith! At 8 going on 9 improvement is unlikely and despite being by Oscar LE doesn't appear to want marathon trips. That puts them between a rock and a hard place IMO. Do they run a chaser that looks limited to mid 150's level into top seasoned 160+ chasers and repeatedly bang their head against wall as they did with Monkfish, or do they look for an 'easier' campaign. I know it looks a bit cowardly, but its important to remember that Paul Nolan has 3 horses rated over 140 - thats a far cry from the big three in Ireland and if Paul thinks mid 150's is LE's ceiling, then why wouldn't he look to capitalise on a weaker looking hurdle division with so much prize money up for grabs? That prize money could help sustain the future of the stable for all we know, so theres more to think about here. Flooring Porter won more last season than most the GC runners last year combined!

Amen Charlie, some chat on here

[jack1092]

Surely they need to run him over fences against the best chasers before they decide he isn't good enough. If he does then get well beat then go back to hurdles for the rest of the season, to give up before being given the chance is poor.

He ran in an Irish National off 153 and while he ran very well, wasn't good enough?

Paul Nolan hasn't a stable full of stars and has done pretty well with his string.



I’d be questioning the heart and class of the trainer opatcho

lol, wtf? Way over the top.


Come on fellas, massive overreaction. This sounds like twitter lol.

[Lobos]

Paul Nolan believes we could see an even better version of Mrs Milner this season despite her workmanlike display in winning the Listed Irish Stallion Farms EBF Cailin Alainn Mares Hurdle – her first start since landing the Pertemps Final.
Sent off the even-money favourite, she got the job done under Bryan Cooper by a length and a half from No Memory, a rival rated 21lb inferior to the Cheltenham Festival heroine.

Nolan said: "She needs to improve if she's to get to the level of the Stayers' Hurdle – hopefully she will keep progressing."

[opatcho]

lol, wtf? Way over the top.
Come on fellas, massive overreaction. This sounds like twitter lol.

LOL ..... yeah, it was a little over board.

I have LE covered in both the Gold Cup and Stayers, I'm tempted to reduce my stakes across both of them. Actually, I will.

The trainer comments is a big negative. You may say the trainer's being realistic, others will say its defeatism.

Paul sounds defeated and slightly annoyed at missing several grade 1 because of one horse..... Monkfish. Instead of sending LE over to the ex-RSA to see if his horse could turn the tables, he went down the national route. I imagine Paul may have been more annoyed after seeing Monkfish performance at the fez - was that a missed opportunity. I dont know the bloke, but I can only imagine its been a frustrating ride with LE and having one horse being in the way of multiples grade 1's.

Monkfish has defeated LE, and he has also defeated LE's trainer. Thats my view.

Either way, the vibe don't sit right with me. Yeah, the trainer knows more than me... and he's come out saying (to put in bluntly) "his lad isn't good enough", and for that reason, I'll be logging into my accounts and reducing my stakes.

[charlie]

LOL ..... yeah, it was a little over board.

I have LE covered in both the Gold Cup and Stayers, I'm tempted to reduce my stakes across both of them. Actually, I will.

The trainer comments is a big negative. You may say the trainer's being realistic, others will say its defeatism.

Paul sounds defeated and slightly annoyed at missing several grade 1 because of one horse..... Monkfish. Instead of sending LE over to the ex-RSA to see if his horse could turn the tables, he went down the national route. I imagine Paul may have been more annoyed after seeing Monkfish performance at the fez - was that a missed opportunity. I dont know the bloke, but I can only imagine its been a frustrating ride with LE and having one horse being in the way of multiples grade 1's.

Monkfish has defeated LE, and he has also defeated LE's trainer. Thats my view.

Either way, the vibe don't sit right with me. Yeah, the trainer knows more than me... and he's come out saying (to put in bluntly) "his lad isn't good enough", and for that reason, I'll be logging into my accounts and reducing my stakes.

What do you mean the 'vibe don't sit right with me'? Punters accuse trainers regularly about not being honest. Paul opens up about his horses ability and lays out future plans, yet thats being used as the stick to beat him with?!? Really? Stinks of ante post fingers burnt, nothing more. The whole take on here about this has been rotten and I've read stuff I expect to see on Twitter, not on here. PN makes a difficult decision about a horse he would have wanted to be GC quality, but probably isn't, and thats labeled defeatist and cowardly by those that don't ride out LE, that don't work in the yard, that don't know the owners, that haven't seen his latest scans, that haven't reviewed his latest blood work and that don't pay his vets bills. Bin please.

[Lobos]

Not getting the love in with Latest Exhibition at all. How many previous winners apart from the great Big Bucks have switched codes ? Also he'll be 9 next March which isn't in his favour either. Very strange decision from connections if he does come here. Can't see it myself at all.

[jack1092]

LOL ..... yeah, it was a little over board.

I have LE covered in both the Gold Cup and Stayers, I'm tempted to reduce my stakes across both of them. Actually, I will.

The trainer comments is a big negative. You may say the trainer's being realistic, others will say its defeatism.

Paul sounds defeated and slightly annoyed at missing several grade 1 because of one horse..... Monkfish. Instead of sending LE over to the ex-RSA to see if his horse could turn the tables, he went down the national route. I imagine Paul may have been more annoyed after seeing Monkfish performance at the fez - was that a missed opportunity. I dont know the bloke, but I can only imagine its been a frustrating ride with LE and having one horse being in the way of multiples grade 1's.

Monkfish has defeated LE, and he has also defeated LE's trainer. Thats my view.

Either way, the vibe don't sit right with me. Yeah, the trainer knows more than me... and he's come out saying (to put in bluntly) "his lad isn't good enough", and for that reason, I'll be logging into my accounts and reducing my stakes.

I can see how it looks defeatism to an extent but the horse got pretty much his ideal conditions in an Irish National, and couldn't win off 153. The 4th was still a decent performance, RPRs rating it joint top of his chase runs but to me that's enough to suggest he's got a ceiling probably short of the top-table chasing.

He ain't young either so this season is really the year they want to give him his best chance to win a top G1. Which is more likely? He beat Thyme Hill in the AB- it takes less to win a stayers than a GC. Nolan obviously doesn't think he's improved enough to be a 165+ chaser. His course form also backs that up.

[robith]

Thats a bit harsh Robith! At 8 going on 9 improvement is unlikely and despite being by Oscar LE doesn't appear to want marathon trips. That puts them between a rock and a hard place IMO. Do they run a chaser that looks limited to mid 150's level into top seasoned 160+ chasers and repeatedly bang their head against wall as they did with Monkfish, or do they look for an 'easier' campaign. I know it looks a bit cowardly, but its important to remember that Paul Nolan has 3 horses rated over 140 - thats a far cry from the big three in Ireland and if Paul thinks mid 150's is LE's ceiling, then why wouldn't he look to capitalise on a weaker looking hurdle division with so much prize money up for grabs? That prize money could help sustain the future of the stable for all we know, so theres more to think about here. Flooring Porter won more last season than most the GC runners last year combined!

Charlie, do you always have to be so bloody reasonable ffs

[opatcho]

What do you mean the 'vibe don't sit right with me'?

Defeatism. Thats the vibe I'm getting. Dont like it.

Stinks of ante post fingers burnt, nothing more. .

LOL

Bet365 with cashout - LE for Stayers @ 33/1. Now 24/1 #noburnherechap
Bet365 with cashout - LE for GC @ 40/1. Full cash out would leaves me 0.1 pts out of pocket. #nevergonnafinanciallyrecoverfromthis

Yeah, stinks of being burnt.
Beans on toast for the rest of the week

The whole take on here about this has been rotten and I've read stuff I expect to see on Twitter, not on here. PN makes a difficult decision about a horse he would have wanted to be GC quality, but probably isn't, and thats labeled defeatist and cowardly by those that don't ride out LE, that don't work in the yard, that don't know the owners, that haven't seen his latest scans, that haven't reviewed his latest blood work and that don't pay his vets bills. Bin please.

1) You missed my point
2) Correct. I dont work in the yard. I dont know the owners, I havent seen the latest scans, I havent spoken to the horse, I havent done the dishes. I suppose we should shut up shop and not discuss anything on here given, none of us have this level of information
3) What I do know is this is the 2nd or 3rd time now the trainers has come out with defeatism attitude. Again, some people will take this as 'the trainer is being realistic'. Doesnt matter. Same thing. He doesnt rate his horse for the GC. Therefore, me either now. On top of that, I dont like horses that switch back to hurdling at the top level. As a result, I intend to exit my position accordingly

...
...
...

Moving on

Not getting the love in with Latest Exhibition at all. How many previous winners apart from the great Big Bucks have switched codes ? Also he'll be 9 next March which isn't in his favour either. Very strange decision from connections if he does come here. Can't see it myself at all.

Second this. Vinndication being one of the more recent ones I can remember to switch
I dont get these trainers who think they can just switch back and forth between codes at the top level, I also find it slightly concerning when its hinted that going back to hurdling could be easier. Not the easiest task to revert horses back to hurdling

[charlie]

Defeatism. Thats the vibe I'm getting. Dont like it.

LOL

Bet365 with cashout - LE for Stayers @ 33/1. Now 24/1 #noburnherechap
Bet365 with cashout - LE for GC @ 40/1. Full cash out would leaves me 0.1 pts out of pocket. #nevergonnafinanciallyrecoverfromthis

Yeah, stinks of being burnt.
Beans on toast for the rest of the week

1) You missed my point
2) Correct. I dont work in the yard. I dont know the owners, I havent seen the latest scans, I havent spoken to the horse, I havent done the dishes. I suppose we should shut up shop and not discuss anything on here given, none of us have this level of information
3) What I do know is this is the 2nd or 3rd time now the trainers has come out with defeatism attitude. Again, some people will take this as 'the trainer is being realistic'. Doesnt matter. Same thing. He doesnt rate his horse for the GC. Therefore, me either now. On top of that, I dont like horses that switch back to hurdling at the top level. As a result, I intend to exit my position accordingly


Moving on

Second this. Vinndication being one of the more recent ones I can remember to switch
I dont get these trainers who think they can just switch back and forth between codes at the top level, I also find it slightly concerning when its hinted that going back to hurdling could be easier. Not the easiest task to revert horses back to hurdling

It's not defeatist to go for easier targets if they think the horses ability will see him struggle at top level. If anything, it's good training, good ownership and the right thing to do by the horse.

At least you haven't lost any money and are still in good spirits about it

'Not the easiest task to revert horses back to hurdling'. That depends entirely on the horse. Plenty of chasers start out over hurdles and go down the hurdle route at Cheltenham. Some horses prefer jumping hurdles. Some horses have issues (or residual issues) where jumping fences puts pressure on parts of their body that are more likely to force injuries or cause pain.

'I don't get these trainers who think they can just switch back and forth between codes at the top level' - you don't have much respect for trainers do you. Should all trainers
be forced to go chasing after hurdling and never be allowed to go back? You've named Vinndication as one you remember where it didn't work, do you remember Lisnagar Oscar or Buveur D'Air?

[taylorch1990]

Why surely? Paul said there are probably better chasers out there and he is more qualified than you or I to give that view. PN will know what he has on his hands and is hardly gonna pass up a GC chance lightly, it wouldn’t make any sense. Easy for people to say ‘poor’ without considering variables they’re completely in the dark to. You haven’t seen him schooling. He might be making mistakes at his fences in which case a run over fences and risking the stable star would be the height of stupidity. He could have a residual injury that’s less likely to be aggregated jumping hurdles than fences. He could be much less enthusiastic than he once was and doesn’t show them much over fences at home, etc etc.

If PN had come out and said the decision was for the horses well being then I don't think anyone could have an issue with it. However the quote on here was that the decision was based on the strength of the chasing division, which is defeatist. If he gets well beaten in a 3 mile hurdle will he immediately rule out the Stayers as well?

[Hurricane fly]

Thats a bit harsh Robith! At 8 going on 9 improvement is unlikely and despite being by Oscar LE doesn't appear to want marathon trips. That puts them between a rock and a hard place IMO. Do they run a chaser that looks limited to mid 150's level into top seasoned 160+ chasers and repeatedly bang their head against wall as they did with Monkfish, or do they look for an 'easier' campaign. I know it looks a bit cowardly, but its important to remember that Paul Nolan has 3 horses rated over 140 - thats a far cry from the big three in Ireland and if Paul thinks mid 150's is LE's ceiling, then why wouldn't he look to capitalise on a weaker looking hurdle division with so much prize money up for grabs? That prize money could help sustain the future of the stable for all we know, so theres more to think about here. Flooring Porter won more last season than most the GC runners last year combined!

I think you are being a bit harsh on Latest Exhibition there. He got closer to Monkfish the further they went (11 lengths in the Flogas vs a neck in the AB and 3 lengths at Christmas). They also must have thought he stays well enough to be put into the Irish National, and I don't think the 4th is that bad a result given he carried more than a stone extra than the horses in front.

In open company I would have expected his rating to top 160 due to competition.

The prize money and relative size to Paul Nolan's stable is a valid one but doesn't make it any less disappointing.

[PresentingPercy]

Below is the interview with Paul Nolan;

https://twitter.com/ablairwhite13/status/1447198776901390337?s=20

Seems straightforward thinking to me - at the moment there 'appears' to be a lack of quality in the staying hurdle division versus the staying chasers, so the option to move him back over hurdles is a possibility. They have a good horse in their yard, they want to maximise his earning and winning potential while they have him.

[jack1092]

I think you are being a bit harsh on Latest Exhibition there. He got closer to Monkfish the further they went (11 lengths in the Flogas vs a neck in the AB and 3 lengths at Christmas). They also must have thought he stays well enough to be put into the Irish National, and I don't think the 4th is that bad a result given he carried more than a stone extra than the horses in front.

In open company I would have expected his rating to top 160 due to competition.

The prize money and relative size to Paul Nolan's stable is a valid one but doesn't make it any less disappointing.

It's not a bad result, but if he's going to be a 170 horse which is what is needed, you'd have expected him to win? 3M5 on yielding ground round Fairyhouse shouldn't have been an excuse either, so for me it definitely points to him being a shade below the level needed. 160ish ain't good enough. It is for a Stayers.
Flooring Porter's come from handicaps. Klassical dreams returned from 487 days off having race over 2ms previously. James Du Berlais in behind. I'd say it's a lot more winnable.

Can't remember the exact saying, but something along the lines of, "Keep yourself in the best company, and your horses in the worst" springs to mind here.