2022 Stayers Hurdle

[charlie]

I have SDB in this at 14s. He loves Cheltenham and knows how to win here. It is one of my no-brain ew bets each year for the past few.

I also love Thyme Hill so if I find a couple of others to add to an EW trixie then I will have him too.

I can't have Flooring Porter. Just felt like an out of nowhere freak of nature last year to me. Most likely down to my not researching him and not backing him.... .

I can't have GDC as I have him going to the Brown.

I can't have KD as I simply don't trust him. He is either all out and struggling to place or winning at a canter practically looking back through his front legs dragging his neck along the floor.

Paisley Park is done and Vanillier isn't coming here (Likely Brown or, maybe, National Hunt Chase IMO)

So there.
:-)

SDB over FP makes zero sense on so many levels IMO.

Ability wise, Flooring Porter has put SDB in his place enough times for me to be sure which one is more talented. FP.

FP was very impressive and it might have looked a bit freakish, but it was actually a carbon copy of his run at Leopardstown where he beat a lot of the same horses by similar margins - he confirmed the form.

In terms of progression, Flooring Porter is 6 going on 7 and could very well improve, whereas at 9 going on 10, SDB's improvement days are most likely behind him. 10 year olds also have an atrocious record in the race and better 10 year olds than SBD have tried.

In terms of price, you have a young and potentially improving champion at 10/1 vs a horse he's well held last twice at 14/1. The latter is abysmal compared to the former, given everything we know now.

Sounds like heart over head stuff callhimgamblor, but we all have bets like that and theres nothing wrong with that whatsoever.

[Quevega]

SDB over FP makes zero sense on so many levels IMO.

Ability wise, Flooring Porter has put SDB in his place enough times for me to be sure which one is more talented. FP.

FP was very impressive and it might have looked a bit freakish, but it was actually a carbon copy of his run at Leopardstown where he beat a lot of the same horses by similar margins - he confirmed the form.

In terms of progression, Flooring Porter is 6 going on 7 and could very well improve, whereas at 9 going on 10, SDB's improvement days are most likely behind him. 10 year olds also have an atrocious record in the race and better 10 year olds than SBD have tried.

In terms of price, you have a young and potentially improving champion at 10/1 vs a horse he's well held last twice at 14/1. The latter is abysmal compared to the former, given everything we know now.

Sounds like heart over head stuff callhimgamblor, but we all have bets like that and theres nothing wrong with that whatsoever.

Except all the points mentioned above

[callhimgamblor]

LoL. I'll have a nibble.

[Block 205]

I was looking at him earlier as a potential for the NH Chase, already got plenty of P2P experience too. Will wait to see where he is entered up first this season.

:
CoD, I was looking at exactly the same bet for the NHC, and found the following which would indicate that Alaphilippe will be going chasing:
At The Races on Twitter: "What's next for Alaphilippe? @FOBRacing is looking forward to 'Big Phil' going chasing, after coming back from his holidays... https://t.co/fPdBOPkaW3" / Twitter

At 50/1 it might be a nice one to have onside at this stage, as he'd surely need 3m+, and the NHC must be a possibility, but that's for a different thread!

[Lobos]

Easy Pertempts winner Mrs Milner entered at Limerick on Sunday.

[ComplyOrDie]

:
CoD, I was looking at exactly the same bet for the NHC, and found the following which would indicate that Alaphilippe will be going chasing:
At The Races on Twitter: "What's next for Alaphilippe? @FOBRacing is looking forward to 'Big Phil' going chasing, after coming back from his holidays... https://t.co/fPdBOPkaW3" / Twitter

At 50/1 it might be a nice one to have onside at this stage, as he'd surely need 3m+, and the NHC must be a possibility, but that's for a different thread!

Thank you Block 205 I hadn't seen this. I'll probably get him onside sooner rather than later

[charlie]

Except all the points mentioned above

Haha, thanks for helping me bring up a lung Q

[Sprinter Sacre]

Easy Pertempts winner Mrs Milner entered at Limerick on Sunday.

One to consider at 66/1 but would prefer with cashout. Also there tends to be many with a chance at a big price in this race which makes me hesitant to back anything with long odds at this stage.

[Kevloaf]

Obviously the previous years winner is a good starting point... but there hasn't been a multiple winner of this race since Big Buck's run. Might be incorrect but don't think since then that a horse finishing in the top 3 has then featured in the places the following. Given there is a lot of early support for Flooring Porter - do people think he is better than the likes of Paisley Park etc who have recently attempted the repeat?

Looking back at the results in recent years, there are a few bigger prices finish up there and several from some of the smaller yards. One that would be on my radar, although not necessarily a bet at this stage is Alaphilippe for Fergal O'Brien. Not sure if he is staying over hurdles or not but seems to have a nice profile for an upcoming trainer who won't be too far off a first festival winner. Placed horses in the Bartlett tend to go on to reasonable things and you would think those ahead of him are likely to be going over fences.

The 'issue' I have, is I'm not even sure I'd think Fergal O'Brien to get a festival winner at 33/1 was value for 2022.

Double figures for Flooring Porter is alright. I haven't backed itm, but I can see the logic.,.. despite no back to back winners since BB, it's a division that lends itself to multiple winners so I'd be interested

[Saxon Warrior]

The 'issue' I have, is I'm not even sure I'd think Fergal O'Brien to get a festival winner at 33/1 was value for 2022.

Double figures for Flooring Porter is alright. I haven't backed itm, but I can see the logic.,.. despite no back to back winners since BB, it's a division that lends itself to multiple winners so I'd be interested

Fergal O’Brien ducked the Festival with Paint The Dream, I recall, when he could have been competitive in a handicap.
He seemed to prefer to miss the Fez altogether,

Overall I wouldn’t be keen on backing any of his horses for Cheltenham antepost - unless one becomes glaringly obvious and the trainer stares that a particular race at Cheltenham was their target.

[HoldenTheReins]

Mrs Milner cut from 66/1 into 25's with Willy Hill after winning.

50's still with SkyBet if anyone is interested.

[opatcho]

I'd take that from Mrs Milner today
Tactical race, still came around from the field. Still happy with 66/1
Hills being crooks, chopped into 20/1
Sky still offering 50/1

[ToniC]

I'd take that from Mrs Milner today
Tactical race, still came around from the field. Still happy with 66/1
Hills being crooks, chopped into 20/1
Sky still offering 50/1

I still don’t think she will win a stayers hurdle but 50/1 is very good value for a former pertemps winner. Hard to find anything 25/1 & above for the open grade 1s that isn’t a literal no-hoper, which even though I ultimately don’t think she will be good enough to win makes it very hard to turn down

[Brooksie]

Interesting comments from Paul Nolan today regarding Latest Exhibition, they could send him back hurdling this year apparently, nothing concrete though.

[Lobos]

Lol.... who's Nolan avoiding this year then?!?