2022 Stayers Hurdle

[Mighty]

darlojim cheers - was curious to see if it was one outside the top three but clearly not!

[Spectre]

I agree that Champ is actually consistent, but the level he's consistent at is below the level of Klassical Dream and Flooring Porter.

He has to improve by 7lbs to win the race by my reckoning, and personally I think that's very unlikely when Klassical Dream and Flooring Porter are at an age where they're more likely to improve.

You can't say he can't win the race. Perhaps if they go too quick it sets the race up for him, or the other two miss a couple of hurdles at important times, but the balance of probability is against him I think.

[FinalFurlong91]

I agree that Champ is actually consistent, but the level he's consistent at is below the level of Klassical Dream and Flooring Porter.

He has to improve by 7lbs to win the race by my reckoning, and personally I think that's very unlikely when Klassical Dream and Flooring Porter are at an age where they're more likely to improve.

You can't say he can't win the race. Perhaps if they go too quick it sets the race up for him, or the other two miss a couple of hurdles at important times, but the balance of probability is against him I think.

Are you saying you think champ is half a stone below KD and FP? Or that he's half a stone below the ability of your average stayers hurdle winner?

Because I dont see either of those being true

Game of opinions i suppose

[TigerRolllllll]

I agree that Champ is actually consistent, but the level he's consistent at is below the level of Klassical Dream and Flooring Porter.

He has to improve by 7lbs to win the race by my reckoning, and personally I think that's very unlikely when Klassical Dream and Flooring Porter are at an age where they're more likely to improve.

You can't say he can't win the race. Perhaps if they go too quick it sets the race up for him, or the other two miss a couple of hurdles at important times, but the balance of probability is against him I think.

Cant argue re age....but they have all had similar numbers of lifetime runs and Champ has only one 3m hurdle run (RPR 165 on first of season), so reasons to think he could improve. He has also run to 170 over fences at Chelt.....so whilst ur right, just saying there is a reason to believe he could run nearer 170

I think if Klassical turns up and runs to 171+ again he should win and be a good winner too.....but there are reasons why could question both his 3m runs ratings (Punch form can mislead and then strange start in last run), plus he has to show he can stay at Chelt on New Course in a proper gallop)

Flooring ratings look most reliable - ie....will run high 160s and go close.....may or not be enough

[Carnage at Taunton]

I agree that Champ is actually consistent, but the level he's consistent at is below the level of Klassical Dream and Flooring Porter.

He has to improve by 7lbs to win the race by my reckoning, and personally I think that's very unlikely when Klassical Dream and Flooring Porter are at an age where they're more likely to improve.

You can't say he can't win the race. Perhaps if they go too quick it sets the race up for him, or the other two miss a couple of hurdles at important times, but the balance of probability is against him I think.

Official ratings have all 3 very close and certainly not a 7 lb difference. Whilst I don’t strictly go on ratings, but 7lb?

Course he can win the race.
The others can jump well and perform at their best, I still think Champ would win……as long as he does what I think he can.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Are you saying you think champ is half a stone below KD and FP? Or that he's half a stone below the ability of your average stayers hurdle winner?

Because I dont see either of those being true

Game of opinions i suppose

I don’t see either of those either.
Yep, opinions!!
Lets hope all get there, then the horse can prove us right…..and not wrong!!

[TigerRolllllll]

I don’t see either of those either.
Yep, opinions!!
Lets hope all get there, then the horse can prove us right…..and not wrong!!

KD has run best RPR of 171 (twice) and Champ 165......so that would explain 7 pound needed

Flooring best is 169

But as per my earlier post, i think there are reasons to believe gap could be narrower

[Carnage at Taunton]

KD has run best RPR of 171 (twice) and Champ 165......so that would explain 7 pound needed

Flooring best is 169

But as per my earlier post, i think there are reasons to believe gap could be narrower

As I said I’m not strictly a ratings person, although I did notice official ratings were very similar between the 3.
Yes I agree ,I think there is fair reasoning to question the ratings, something I often find myself doing, hence my stance on ratings.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Champ does have an rpr of 170 over fences i noticed, if we want to go on them.
Given he’s happier hurdling, well I presume he is after last season, then I can see him running at least as good as that when needed.
Just cannot have 7lb difference anyway.

[TigerRolllllll]

Champ does have an rpr of 170 over fences i noticed, if we want to go on them.
Given he’s happier hurdling, well I presume he is after last season, then I can see him running at least as good as that when needed.
Just cannot have 7lb difference anyway.

RPRs are pretty good and worth spending more time on.......outside of Cheltenham, i find them really useful for solving handicap puzzles and finding value. Tend to focus on best ratings...ie what a horse is capable of

The 170 is one of the reasons for optimism i raised in previous post........but it is a chase rating and KD has clearly achieved more over hurdles thus far

Not sure who jockey will be.....but Champ is likely to be finishing strongest, so need someone good in a finish....shame Barry not still riding

[Irish Rugby]

Flooring Porter at 6/1 would not be something I'd ever thought Tom Segal would put up a whole 2 months before the race. Value has really been sucked out of the market by the bookmakers.

[Carnage at Taunton]

RPRs are pretty good and worth spending more time on.......outside of Cheltenham, i find them really useful for solving handicap puzzles and finding value. Tend to focus on best ratings...ie what a horse is capable of

The 170 is one of the reasons for optimism i raised in previous post........but it is a chase rating and KD has clearly achieved more over hurdles thus far

Not sure who jockey will be.....but Champ is likely to be finishing strongest, so need someone good in a finish....shame Barry not still riding

Nico i would imagine, but JP might say to Jonjo, you rode him the other day, would you like the ride?
Either would be fine with me.

[FinalFurlong91]

RPRs are pretty good and worth spending more time on.......outside of Cheltenham, i find them really useful for solving handicap puzzles and finding value. Tend to focus on best ratings...ie what a horse is capable of

The 170 is one of the reasons for optimism i raised in previous post........but it is a chase rating and KD has clearly achieved more over hurdles thus far

Not sure who jockey will be.....but Champ is likely to be finishing strongest, so need someone good in a finish....shame Barry not still riding

I used to agree then I heard Graham rodway is a big part of the team that calculates the RPRs for stayers on the flat

No idea who does the jumps ones but it dampens my enthusiasm

They are after all just another man's opinion

[Lostinleith]

Hes 4/1 nrnb with paddypower

Happy to take that

If you are able to get power ups you can boost it to 9/2 too

9-2 with Hills, 4.86-1 if you are able to boost.

[FinalFurlong91]

9-2 with Hills, 4.86-1 if you are able to boost.

Is that NRNB though?