2022 Stayers Hurdle

[ComplyOrDie]

Thyme Hill is about the same horse as Roksana on their races last year.
I just dont think thats enough, unless the race falls into becoming a average one or less.

Yeah, this is how I would have it too, not sure why I didn't use the Roksana form line for my case

[Craigy14]

I'm put off by the fact he's trained by Phillip hobbs and not in Ireland !

I get what you’re saying about the trainer, but in this instance with this horse surely it’s a bit unfounded?

He trained him perfectly last year, unlikely it was his fault he picked up an injury, Dickie clearly blamed himself for the loss to PP in the Long Walk. Won his first open race Grade 2 and also picked up an open Grade 1.

I understand the price isn’t appealing but in terms of the stayers he has to be up on peoples list surely.

[Ice]

I get what you’re saying about the trainer, but in this instance with this horse surely it’s a bit unfounded?

He trained him perfectly last year, unlikely it was his fault he picked up an injury, Dickie clearly blamed himself for the loss to PP in the Long Walk. Won his first open race Grade 2 and also picked up an open Grade 1.

I understand the price isn’t appealing but in terms of the stayers he has to be up on peoples list surely.

I do think he's a very good horse and to be fair i did back him last season so I'm not discounting him but after last years Irish dominance I'm finding myself looking in that direction, so far I've backed Flooring porter and Klassical dream.

[FinalFurlong91]

Thyme Hill is about the same horse as Roksana on their races last year.
I just dont think thats enough, unless the race falls into becoming a average one or less.

Id say hes a few lengths better than her

Not loads but definitely better

Remember he hadn't run since December at Aintree

and he is still young enough and lightly raced enough to improve

And let's be honest hobbs had a mare last season, horses ran horribly so not beyond the realms of possibility that even thyme hill wasn't running to his best

I'm not saying he's a great value bet (think I'm more trying to retain hope in the aintree 21/Cheltenham 22 20/1 iv got on him)

[Saxon Warrior]

Id say hes a few lengths better than her

Not loads but definitely better

Remember he hadn't run since December at Aintree

and he is still young enough and lightly raced enough to improve

And let's be honest hobbs had a mare last season, horses ran horribly so not beyond the realms of possibility that even thyme hill wasn't running to his best

I'm not saying he's a great value bet (think I'm more trying to retain hope in the aintree 21/Cheltenham 22 20/1 iv got on him)

He had two goes at Roksana, and beat her
* one and three-quarter lengths the first time.
* by a Neck, second time
Theres not much difference, and Roxy wasn’t improving, as a 9yo.

Usually if horses are improving enough, the second season hurdling should be the one that catapults them forward.

As a verification, a comparison with Thyme Hill and Paisley was

* a Neck defeat of PP and
* a length and three quarter win, getting 3lb,
so a similar horse to Paisley Park, which is decent.

However, Paisley Park’s 2020/21 best was 8lb less, than his Stayers Hurdle best from 2 years previously.

That was shown when he was beaten 5 lengths into third in the 2021 Stayers Hurdle by a 6yo new kid on the block.

Thyme Hill, on form, was good enough in 2021, to be in the battle for 3rd and 4th in the Stayers with Paisley Park and Beacon Edge, in March.

He could improve to challenge this season, (personally I thought that last year was the year for him), and none of his form put him as the Stayers winner.

He probably still needs half-a-stone improvement, which for a 5/1 fav, going into his third year hurdling, makes him a poor price.
But………....the 20/1 that you have is more like it, and some value, if he can find a bit extra.

[Istabraq]

He had two goes at Roksana, and beat her
* one and three-quarter lengths the first time.
[FONT=Verdana][SIZE=14px]* by a Neck, second time
Theres not much difference, and Roxy wasn’t improving, as a 9yo.
]

You don’t think Roksana’s efforts last year were an improvement on previous form SW ?

[Lbur4288]

I know this horse has been briefly touched on before but I think is worthy of a mention. Abacadabras - clearly a decent horse if a little bit of a loose cannon but I thought his Aintree run showed definite potential as a staying type. I don't think Gordon Elliott will attempt another crack at Honeysuckle and will look at keeping Abacadabras over hurdles at the longer trips. I felt he excelled when he had a good pace to aim at and was delivered perfectly. Ironically, I think it was going too early which cost him the Supreme against Shishkin a couple of years back as he has a tendency to get a bit lonely up front alone. With Flooring Porter and others in there to set a good pace up for him I think if delivered at the right time he will go close. No concerns with the Cheltenham Hill given how he's ran up it before.

Not necessarily something to back with massive confidence but there's certainly juice in the odds and can definitely go with the best of them in the right circumstances.

[RufusFlynn]

Obviously the previous years winner is a good starting point... but there hasn't been a multiple winner of this race since Big Buck's run. Might be incorrect but don't think since then that a horse finishing in the top 3 has then featured in the places the following. Given there is a lot of early support for Flooring Porter - do people think he is better than the likes of Paisley Park etc who have recently attempted the repeat?

Looking back at the results in recent years, there are a few bigger prices finish up there and several from some of the smaller yards. One that would be on my radar, although not necessarily a bet at this stage is Alaphilippe for Fergal O'Brien. Not sure if he is staying over hurdles or not but seems to have a nice profile for an upcoming trainer who won't be too far off a first festival winner. Placed horses in the Bartlett tend to go on to reasonable things and you would think those ahead of him are likely to be going over fences.

[ComplyOrDie]

Looking back at the results in recent years, there are a few bigger prices finish up there and several from some of the smaller yards. One that would be on my radar, although not necessarily a bet at this stage is Alaphilippe for Fergal O'Brien. Not sure if he is staying over hurdles or not but seems to have a nice profile for an upcoming trainer who won't be too far off a first festival winner. Placed horses in the Bartlett tend to go on to reasonable things and you would think those ahead of him are likely to be going over fences.

I was looking at him earlier as a potential for the NH Chase, already got plenty of P2P experience too. Will wait to see where he is entered up first this season.

[callhimgamblor]

I have SDB in this at 14s. He loves Cheltenham and knows how to win here. It is one of my no-brain ew bets each year for the past few.

I also love Thyme Hill so if I find a couple of others to add to an EW trixie then I will have him too.

I can't have Flooring Porter. Just felt like an out of nowhere freak of nature last year to me. Most likely down to my not researching him and not backing him.... .

I can't have GDC as I have him going to the Brown.

I can't have KD as I simply don't trust him. He is either all out and struggling to place or winning at a canter practically looking back through his front legs dragging his neck along the floor.

Paisley Park is done and Vanillier isn't coming here (Likely Brown or, maybe, National Hunt Chase IMO)


So there.
:-)

[knockando]

One as an outsider to throw in the mix put up in my diary (I would just have copied the link to it but am struggling on my phone, pool side in Menorca):

Imperial Alcazar in the Stayers at 50/1 on B365. He was put up as Fergal O'Brien's best chance at the festival this year, who in the end went off 11/2 in the Pertemps but didn't get home, but with the vet reporting that had sustained a knock into his left fore in the race. Fergal O'Brien however was considering a tilt at the Stayers prior to the festival:

"Fergal O'Brien is tempted by a Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle bid with exciting Pertemps qualifier winner Imperial Alcazar, who he believes is one of the best he has trained and with further improvement to come."

Prior to the festival, he went off 13/2 for the Stayers at Haydock in November and came 9th on soft, but then got back to winning ways at Warwick, winning comfortably in the the Pertemps qualifier so we know he stays well.

Clearly, trainer form at the festival would need to be taken into account, and the fact that the Stayers might not be the end target at all, nor is there confirmation that he'll stay hurdling, but on the trainer confidence with the horse who definitely stays the trip, thought 50/1 at a price with cash out was just too big to be ignored taking into account all of the above.

[ComplyOrDie]

I have SDB in this at 14s. He loves Cheltenham and knows how to win here. It is one of my no-brain ew bets each year for the past few.

I also love Thyme Hill so if I find a couple of others to add to an EW trixie then I will have him too.

I can't have Flooring Porter. Just felt like an out of nowhere freak of nature last year to me. Most likely down to my not researching him and not backing him.... .

I can't have GDC as I have him going to the Brown.

I can't have KD as I simply don't trust him. He is either all out and struggling to place or winning at a canter practically looking back through his front legs dragging his neck along the floor.

Paisley Park is done and Vanillier isn't coming here (Likely Brown or, maybe, National Hunt Chase IMO)


So there.
:-)

Interesting you can't have Flooring Porter, despite him being the reigning champ and beating SDB twice last season in the process, not to mention SDB will be 10 next year and Flooring Porter will only be 7. If one was 33/1 and the other 6/1 then maybe I'd get the point but one is 10's and the other 14's.

[callhimgamblor]

Yes. Likely down to my lack of knowledge on FP. I'm also a stubborn SOB and, having missed the boat, I can't dive in and catch up so I'm going to claim to be an old romantic and go with SDB until he fails to place.

[Lobos]

Yes. Likely down to my lack of knowledge on FP. I'm also a stubborn SOB and, having missed the boat, I can't dive in and catch up so I'm going to claim to be an old romantic and go with SDB until he fails to place.

You've not missed any boat. 10/1 for the current champion , a horse that bolted up last year and age wise is open to further improvement, is an incredibly generous price bearing in mind the seemingly lack of top class challengers. Plenty of room on the boat for you. Be quick though as it'll soon be fully booked.

[Saxon Warrior]

You don’t think Roksana’s efforts last year were an improvement on previous form SW ?

She peaked at the same RPR as last year.
Her official rating went up by 1lb in the season, from 152 to 153
So she levelled out.

I backed her early at 33/1 for the Stayers last year, as I thought she could improve from a full season at 3M.
That didnt work out, as they ducked the Stayers and went to the Mares and lost.