2022 Stayers Hurdle

[Spectre]

He won't win a Champion Hurdle for starters, and his run style is perfect for a Stayers.

He stepped up to two and half at Aintree with ease, and it doesn't take a leap of imagination to think connections would have the Stayers on their mind.

Finally he's a Davidoff out of a Cadoudal mare which is very much a staying pedigree.

[Lbur4288]

As I said elsewhere on Abacadabras, I feel that a horse setting a decent pace (Flooring Porter is the one I have in mind) plays nicely into Abacadabras running style. He can get a bit lonely up front so with a proper full pelt pace to aim at he can try and pick them off with a late delivery. I think its a very good price when you compare to others in the market. He's no 33/1 shot in my eyes.

[charlie]

He won't win a Champion Hurdle for starters, and his run style is perfect for a Stayers.

He stepped up to two and half at Aintree with ease, and it doesn't take a leap of imagination to think connections would have the Stayers on their mind.

Finally he's a Davidoff out of a Cadoudal mare which is very much a staying pedigree.

I watched the Aintree race back a few times the other day to access Buzz, and was left thinking Kennedy delivered ABA perfectly, but with a view to going further, and not just further but up a stiff hill, who would you take out of the race as a bet? Buzz or ABA? Had to be Buzz for me because ABA looked flat to the boards and its not like Buzz isn't coming back at him, or like they haven't finished in a heap behind him. You could very fairly argue Buzz was fresh that day and I never take Aintree or Punchestown form too literally as it comes at the end of a hard season, and ABA had harder, so it was just something I was mindful of, but at 33/1 I could perhaps forgive. One big plus in the ABA column is his 2m hurdling campaign shows he's comfortable lying up with a strong pace which Flooring Porter will almost certainly set should he line up next year - you'd expect that to take others out their comfort zone as it did in March, taking the sting out their finish. That might not apply to ABA in the way it would other, significantly shorter priced horses.

[Saxon Warrior]

He won't win a Champion Hurdle for starters, and his run style is perfect for a Stayers.

He stepped up to two and half at Aintree with ease, and it doesn't take a leap of imagination to think connections would have the Stayers on their mind.

Finally he's a Davidoff out of a Cadoudal mare which is very much a staying pedigree.

For anyone whose backed Buzz in recent days then Abacadabras is the main hurdles formline suggesting Stayers for Hendo's horse.

Aba went for it early
Buzz came at it late

Could Aba be held up over 3M and be delivered late?
Its possible.

Backing him could depend on whether you make a book on each race our just back one, two or maybe three.

If you make a book, you take Aba at 33/1 as an obvious cover bet for the race.

If you don't make a book, then you probably sit and wait for entries for Aba.

Almost certainly will run over 2M first, and depending on his performance he stays at 2M or they consider moving him up in trip.

That first race is key.

[Istabraq]

Could easily be nothing but whilst Aba is generally still 25/1 for the Champion Hurdle he has been clipped in recent weeks with one or two firm to 14s and 16s
My guess is it’s just a reaction to a positive Elliott update and not an indication of target, but you never know…

[nortonscoin200]

I watched the Aintree race back a few times the other day to access Buzz, and was left thinking Kennedy delivered ABA perfectly, but with a view to going further, and not just further but up a stiff hill, who would you take out of the race as a bet? Buzz or ABA? Had to be Buzz for me because ABA looked flat to the boards and its not like Buzz isn't coming back at him, or like they haven't finished in a heap behind him. You could very fairly argue Buzz was fresh that day and I never take Aintree or Punchestown form too literally as it comes at the end of a hard season, and ABA had harder, so it was just something I was mindful of, but at 33/1 I could perhaps forgive. One big plus in the ABA column is his 2m hurdling campaign shows he's comfortable lying up with a strong pace which Flooring Porter will almost certainly set should he line up next year - you'd expect that to take others out their comfort zone as it did in March, taking the sting out their finish. That might not apply to ABA in the way it would other, significantly shorter priced horses.

I didn't read the Aintree race the same way as you Charlie.

My view is that Abacadabras travels so well I wouldn't worry too much about him staying the trip in the Stayers.

The key to him is that he mustn't hit the front too son.

He got there by accident in the Supreme and it cost him the race against Shishkin.

And he was crawling all over them at Aintree and hit the front shortly after the final flight - which in my view is probably sooner than Jack would have liked.

At Aintree, Buzz was ahead of Abas as they approached the third last - but Hendo's horse was going nowhere.

Abas had already put the race to bed when Buzz finally got going and mounted a visually impressive late burst.

But my view from watching the closing stages a few more times is that Aba wasn't stopping at the line - none of the others were making ground on him.

And when it comes to the Cheltenham hill at the end of the Stayers where Flooring Porter sets an honest pace I can see Abacadabras being able to go with it - and hopefully he'll have enough left in the tank to take it up in the final 100 yards or so.

I think the 33-1 Abas is one of the best prices out there at the moment. Like Spectre, I can't see him winning the Champion Hurdle but he could be the class act in the Stayers and as a fairly lightly raced 8-year-old there's every chance he'll have the stamina for such a test.

I have a few reservations about Buzz.

The first is that he's untested at Cheltenham. He'll also be 8 in a couple of months but Hendo has never taken him to Cheltenham. Is there a good reason for that?

Secondly, I could see him being flat to the boards in a strongly run Stayers - will he be able to hold a challenging position so that he can repeat that Aintree/Newmarket surge or will he be left with too much to do.

Thirdly, I'm always wary of giving too much weight to Ces form when it comes to hurdles. I've got it in my head over the years - rightly or wrongly - that you can often be left disappointed.

(Having said that, I backed Burning Victory for the Mares Hurdle on the basis of her flat campaign and Newmarket run. But even though 33-1 is a brilliant price I'm slightly getting cold feet because her hurdling is so poor and that probably won't change for the better.)

Don't get me wrong, I think Buzz is one of the best bets on offer for the Stayers and the smart play is/was to back him and Abas at the prices. I see Buzz is now a best price 20-1 which I'm not going to take as I don't make a book.

But Gordon intends to start Abas off in the Hatton's Grace, thinks he got the Aintree trip "well" and will be looking to run him over mid range trips a bit more this season.

Gordon could save Abas for an Aintree repeat but he will surely want to take him to Cheltenham as well - and if he stays the trip again at Fairyhouse the Stayers has got to be on his mind.

Saxon Warrior mentioned a few days ago how Willie doesn't believe in bottoming his Stayers candidates by running them too often over 3 miles.

I'm hoping Gordon gives Abas a Willie-style build-up to Festival Thursday.

[charlie]

nortonscoin200 Great post

Watched the Aintree race again and I think you're right re him not stopping and just idling - he tends to do this.

You make a compelling enough case for me to add him @ 36 on the exchange, which is a very fair price IMO.

Lots will argue that you wouldn't associate staying hurdlers with MOL & Giggs, which is fair. They've had 1 placed runner in 33 years and we know MOL buys future chasers.

That being said, MOL wouldn't have many 2m Grade 1 hurdlers, and ABA is a multiple Grade 1 winner over 2 miles, and now over 2m4f. I've always thought of ABA as good without being very very good, but as I look through his form, he just has to be the latter and at 7 going on 8, he could very well excel over 3m. Plenty of nearly champion hurdlers or very good 2 miles can step up to 3m and you'd be encouraged he could be one of them. Nearly 40/1 is a no brainer actually.

[FinalFurlong91]

The way I read that Aintree race was that it was an absolutely horrendous renewal that completely fell apart and I couldn't see any of those horses as proper grade 1 animals

Jason the militant unseated
None of mcfabulous, silver streak, song for someone or brewinupastorm went a yard
Buveur dair got left in front and is way past his best

There is a massive question mark next to that race for me

[Spectre]

The way I read that Aintree race was that it was an absolutely horrendous renewal that completely fell apart and I couldn't see any of those horses as proper grade 1 animals

Jason the militant unseated
None of mcfabulous, silver streak, song for someone or brewinupastorm went a yard
Buveur dair got left in front and is way past his best

There is a massive question mark next to that race for me

That's a pretty harsh assessment FF. Abacadabras was second and touched off by Shishkin in the Supreme, and while he fell in the Champion Hurdle itself, he previously finished 9 lengths ahead of the Champion Hurdle 2nd Sharjah in the Irish Champion Hurdle. Buzz whilst he was beaten by Abacadabras at Aintree has then since gone on to be a very good winner of the Cesarawich. Both looking as though they'd improve the further they go.

McFabulous, Silver Streak, Song For Someone, Brewinupastorm, Nor So Sleepy, Ballyandy, Buveur D'air et al were all stuffed by the two of them. You can call it 'didn't go a yard' if you want, but the other two were simply in a different league.

[charlie]

The way I read that Aintree race was that it was an absolutely horrendous renewal that completely fell apart and I couldn't see any of those horses as proper grade 1 animals

Jason the militant unseated
None of mcfabulous, silver streak, song for someone or brewinupastorm went a yard
Buveur dair got left in front and is way past his best

There is a massive question mark next to that race for me

Whilst it wasn't the strongest field, is that really a big negative given how the race panned out? Were ABA being pushed along 3 out and made to sing for his supper then I'd agree with you, but he's cruised to the last on the snaff whilst others are hard at it, and were it not for the mistake at the last he'd have won more cosily. The clock shows sub 5 mins on good-to-soft ground, which is similar to other top graded animals who have won this race. Not sure what's not to like. When I think of horses like ABA who are very very good but not quite there with top championship 2 milers at the highest level, I think of Nichols Canyon, which is convenient for my case () as he got battered 27L in this (albeit by Annie Power and 9yo MTOY) and he went on to win the stayers - ABA would be more obvious and fare more likely IMO, regardless of race depth (because the back form as per Spectre's post, is relevant too)

[FinalFurlong91]

That's a pretty harsh assessment FF. Abacadabras was second and touched off by Shishkin in the Supreme, and while he fell in the Champion Hurdle itself, he previously finished 9 lengths ahead of the Champion Hurdle 2nd Sharjah in the Irish Champion Hurdle. Buzz whilst he was beaten by Abacadabras at Aintree has then since gone on to be a very good winner of the Cesarawich. Both looking as though they'd improve the further they go.

McFabulous, Silver Streak, Song For Someone, Brewinupastorm, Nor So Sleepy, Ballyandy, Buveur D'air et al were all stuffed by the two of them. You can call it 'didn't go a yard' if you want, but the other two were simply in a different league.

Id say it was an accurate perception personally haha

I thought almost all of the Aintree grade 1s were weak and will be very dubious about that form going forward

I like to be as cynical as possible when it comes to my ante post betting whether its flat or jumps

[opatcho]

I thought almost all of the Aintree grade 1s were weak and will be very dubious about that form going forward

I share this line of thought
GB horses were smashed up at the fez
Aintree comes along, a bunch of second rated Irish horses come over (Aba, Fakir D'o) and they win
Aba cruises into his races, doesnt look like a Cheltenham Festival stayer to me

[Lobos]

Aba is Harchibald the 2nd. Flat track bully. Aintree is his course. Cheltenham.......nah, not for me. If he's a Stayer around Cheltenham I'm a top male model.

[charlie]

Aba is Harchibald the 2nd. Flat track bully. Aintree is his course. Cheltenham.......nah, not for me. If he's a Stayer around Cheltenham I'm a top male model.

If the above is a genuine opinion then I take comfort you can bank on your looks Lobos

ABA has a superb record at Leopardstown where the ground rises 8m over the last 2.5 furlongs. Cheltenham its 10m over the last 3 furlongs, so both are stiff finishes and not remotely flat.

At Cheltenham he's mixed it up with with Envoi Allen and Thyme Hill in the Bumper, beaten multiple future grade 1 winners and future festival winners in behind arguably the best horse in training, - all done at Cheltenham, up that hill.

Deduction.......flat track bully. Nonsense in the face of fact no?

[Lobos]

If the above is a genuine opinion then I take comfort you can bank on your looks Lobos

ABA has a superb record at Leopardstown where the ground rises 8m over the last 2.5 furlongs. Cheltenham its 10m over the last 3 furlongs, so both are stiff finishes and not remotely flat.

At Cheltenham he's mixed it up with with Envoi Allen and Thyme Hill in the Bumper, beaten multiple future grade 1 winners and future festival winners in behind arguably the best horse in training, - all done at Cheltenham, up that hill.

Deduction.......flat track bully. Nonsense in the face of fact no?

No. Good try, but not budging. He's not a Cheltenham winner. Good horse, but.....