2022 Ryanair Chase

[charlie]

I am shocked Janidil has drifted for this, he ran a good race I thought, hes gone from 10/1 to 16/1 for this now, 3m is not the horses trip yet he ran a great race. 2m 4f is the horses trip and I'll be rebacking the horse for this and doing a bet on betfair W/O Allaho.

I think you're spot on. 7 horses separate Janidil from Allaho. Energumene, Tornado Flyer and First Flow won't go here, which then leaves Saint Calvados, Shan Blue, Mister Fisher and Envoi Allen. Envoi has looked poor and I couldn't have him on my mind. Mister Fisher is way too mistake prone around Cheltenham. Shan Blue has been MIA and could go Ultima and Saint Calvados feels like a 'nearly horse' (which might be a bit unfair). So basically, we can confidently rule of half the runners that split Janidil and Allaho, with the other half all having fairly significant holes. I'd be surprised if more than 2 of the remaining 4 showed up, and it feels like an inevitable price collapse. I was expecting to see a sea of blue today but we've see the opposite. That's a mistake IMO and a price collapse is inevitable. A 'shrewdy' will spot this and write about it and then that will be that, so 12/1NRNB is a great EW bet IMO.

[Benjy23]

Agree he's one for the without Alaho market. Although Saint Calvados the other likely in that market for me. Anyone got this market yet?

[isitmarchyet]

14s NRNB with Bet365 charlie.

[charlie]

14s NRNB with Bet365 charlie.

thank you

[Exar Essay]

I agree entirely. I have him and Fakir as significantly overpriced. Saint Calvados the only other one worth mentioning on form. Shan Blue could make the frame, but we’ve no idea of his fitness.

[MadeinJapan]

Agree he's one for the without Alaho market. Although Saint Calvados the other likely in that market for me. Anyone got this market yet?

Betfair have - he’s 11/2 w/o Allaho, unchanged from today’s result…

[Spectre]

If it helps with considerations, San Blue is fit and well, and this race is the target.

[willpaterson]

I agree entirely. I have him and Fakir as significantly overpriced. Saint Calvados the only other one worth mentioning on form. Shan Blue could make the frame, but we’ve no idea of his fitness.

In agreement with you on Fakir, was doing some prep work on the race this morning, 6/1 in the W/out market on Betfair looked a bit of value. Would think this is the target based on entries, whereas plenty of the others have potential other options like the Gold Cup and a lot of the short priced British runners can have a few negatives found in them.

[isitmarchyet]

The question I'll no doubt be asking myself when it comes to this race... can I finally not back Asterion Forlonge? Feel like he's gonna end up here.

[Nathaniel99999]

I don't think Shan blue, or Fakir or Asterion Forlonge will beat Janidil in the W/O Allaho market, Shan blue has fallen this season, and last year finished way off behind Chantry house, Fakir is just average nowadays and was beaten by Janidil in placings in the John Durkan, Asterion Forlonge's jumping is dodgy and was also beaten by Janidil in the placings in the Irish gold cup, I don't know why any of the mentioned horses would beat Janidil in the race W/O Allaho.

[Exar Essay]

I don't think Shan blue, or Fakir or Asterion Forlonge will beat Janidil in the W/O Allaho market, Shan blue has fallen this season, and last year finished way off behind Chantry house, Fakir is just average nowadays and was beaten by Janidil in placings in the John Durkan, Asterion Forlonge's jumping is dodgy and was also beaten by Janidil in the placings in the Irish gold cup, I don't know why any of the mentioned horses would beat Janidil in the race W/O Allaho.

In the defence of Fakir … he jumped poorly In the John Durkan. Which is unlike him. Even more unlike him was that howler at the first against Allaho over Xmas. He still finished well in second. You could say his jumping’s becoming a problem, but I think it was just a poor day at the office in the John Durkan and a random mistake LTO. Im happy to forgive and as Will says above, think 6/1 W/o Allaho a fair bet.

Btw, I think Janidil is equally as good a bet.

[Fouroverthrutwo]

The question I'll no doubt be asking myself when it comes to this race... can I finally not back Asterion Forlonge? Feel like he's gonna end up here.

Save your money for when he turns up at Punchestown

[willpaterson]

In the defence of Fakir … he jumped poorly In the John Durkan. Which is unlike him. Even more unlike him was that howler at the first against Allaho over Xmas. He still finished well in second. You could say his jumping’s becoming a problem, but I think it was just a poor day at the office in the John Durkan and a random mistake LTO. Im happy to forgive and as Will says above, think 6/1 W/o Allaho a fair bet.

Btw, I think Janidil is equally as good a bet.

Good points from both yourself & Nathaniel, the jumping can be a bit of a subject of consideration - I cannot remember what race it was, he did look a bit reluctant at some fences. I think there can be credit to his underlying ability, that he has posted some respectable efforts given that.

Janidil though does have a decent profile, I would say has ran to a consistently good level this season, and while I think will end up in this - I would be a tiny bit worried that he will end up in the Gold Cup, bar he doesn’t necessarily look to want that far.

I think as with a lot of races at the Festival, the Irish hold the key - the collateral form is normally so much deeper.

[Exar Essay]

Good points from both yourself & Nathaniel, the jumping can be a bit of a subject of consideration - I cannot remember what race it was, he did look a bit reluctant at some fences. I think there can be credit to his underlying ability, that he has posted some respectable efforts given that.

Janidil though does have a decent profile, I would say has ran to a consistently good level this season, and while I think will end up in this - I would be a tiny bit worried that he will end up in the Gold Cup, bar he doesn’t necessarily look to want that far.

I think as with a lot of races at the Festival, the Irish hold the key - the collateral form is normally so much deeper.

He’s not in the GC mate. Which makes Janidil and Fakir good bets without NRNB in my view.

Ironically, I think he would stay the trip.

[willpaterson]

He’s not in the GC mate. Which makes Janidil and Fakir good bets without NRNB in my view.

Ironically, I think he would stay the trip.

Ah bollocks, makes me sound stupid - correct my earlier point, does look a fairly solid bet in that case. Looked through so many of the Ryanair and Gold Cup entries today, I must have crossed my wires!

Out of interest what do people think of Mister Fisher?