2022 Ryanair Chase

[Benjy23]

Had a quick search and yea, I think I imagined that interview.

[Nathaniel99999]

This might sound strange but Janidil is one of my NAPS for the festival. There is alot I like about this horse, he did not stay in the Savills chase but he finished a fair 5th, yes he got beat by Melon but Melon stays 3m+ and Janidl had Melon behind from 2m 5f out which is his preferred trip always has been. Finished 2nd to Allaho and was running on and could of won the race if he wasn't too far back. Also when you look at the betting some are going champion chase or you got the likes of Tornado flyer who finished behind Jandil in the race Allaho won. I think Janidil is a better horse than Tornado flyer. I got Janidil at 16/1 and now its 10/1 and 12/1 in some places and I think on the day it may go off round half that. But I really think this horse is an improver and I rather do this horse than a horse who's favourite and who needs to lead because Allaho needs to lead to win as it front runs and Jandil I think is the type that will win by the line at the end.

[giantcauseway]

Actually agree with you there, Nathaniel99999. I think Allaho and Fakir D'Oudairies are vulnerable to regression despite their young ages. They've each had three Festival runs, all good efforts. But the market knows that and there's no secrets there and they're priced as if they're going to reproduce those runs. Fakir D'Oudairies looks to have plateaued in his career and just looks limited. Needs to bounce back but every piece of evidence leaves him something to find.

I just think with Allaho and Mullins, plus the fact he won last year, that combination will be hammered on point by the ITV crew, and as a consequence, will be overbet and the betting public will be betting on a reproduction of his Ryanir win and probably his John Durkan effort. This smells like the apparently vintage renewal of the JLT Novices when Samcro, Melon and Faugheen fought out the finish but flopped a year later when Samcro and Melon prominent in the market for last season despite meh seasons.

Min was the second favourite that day but people forget he's had 4 Festival run and was 10yo defending his crown. For me, age was a factor but also, I'd say one war too many with a win, 2 seconds and a fourth. Point is, people are like football clubs, they buy into what players/horses did previously and expect them to produce it in different circumstances.

And for me, the standout price by far is Janidil who was reported by Walsh to connections as not staying the Savills trip. Just can't see another race option for him other than the Ryanair and unless he misses Cheltenham, he should be a player. Rather take the 20/1 than play safe at 10s.

[Eggs]

….Janidil 16-1 TWAR with Hills.

[charlie]

This might sound strange but Janidil is one of my NAPS for the festival. There is alot I like about this horse, he did not stay in the Savills chase but he finished a fair 5th, yes he got beat by Melon but Melon stays 3m+ and Janidl had Melon behind from 2m 5f out which is his preferred trip always has been. Finished 2nd to Allaho and was running on and could of won the race if he wasn't too far back. Also when you look at the betting some are going champion chase or you got the likes of Tornado flyer who finished behind Jandil in the race Allaho won. I think Janidil is a better horse than Tornado flyer. I got Janidil at 16/1 and now its 10/1 and 12/1 in some places and I think on the day it may go off round half that. But I really think this horse is an improver and I rather do this horse than a horse who's favourite and who needs to lead because Allaho needs to lead to win as it front runs and Jandil I think is the type that will win by the line at the end.

Janidil's run in the John Durkan was some performance, but I'd be weary reaching the conclusion he doesn't stay. The JD was a tough race, evidenced by Allaho coming straight here. Janidil posted an RPR of 167 and ran Allaho to 2L that day, which was some performance, comfortably his best. He's definitely improved, but backing up in the Savills 23 days after that effort was a really tall ask, and he's run well. He hasn't lost by 20L or finished treading on treacle, he's lost by 7L and I think JP will see this as Fakir's trip and they'll persist with further for Janidil.

[Benjy23]

Aye, can see him going Gold Cup still to be honest. That 10s is NRNB though, so not a bad e/w proposition.

[isitmarchyet]

Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) 2m 4f 127y - Thursday 17th March


A Plus Tard (FR) 8 Cheveley Park Stud Henry de Bromhead IRE

Allaho (FR) 8 Cheveley Park Stud Willie Mullins IRE

Asterion Forlonge (FR) 8 Mrs J. Donnelly Willie Mullins IRE

Battleoverdoyen (IRE) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE

Blackbow (IRE) 9 Roaringwater Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE

Chacun Pour Soi (FR) 10 Mrs S. Ricci Willie Mullins IRE

Chatham Street Lad (IRE) 10 Mr V. Healy Michael Winters IRE

Cilaos Emery (FR) 10 Luke McMahon Willie Mullins IRE

Conflated (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE

Dashel Drasher 9 Mrs B Tully and Mr R Lock Jeremy Scott

Defi du Seuil (FR) 9 Mr John P. McManus Philip Hobbs

Eldorado Allen (FR) 8 J P Romans & Terry Warner Colin Tizzard

Energumene (FR) 8 Tony Bloom Willie Mullins IRE

Envoi Allen (FR) 8 Cheveley Park Stud Henry de Bromhead IRE

Fakir d'Oudairies (FR) 7 Mr John P. McManus Joseph O'Brien IRE

Fanion d'Estruval (FR) 7 Mr David Wilson Venetia Williams

Franco de Port (FR) 7 Bruton Street V Willie Mullins IRE

Funambule Sivola (FR) 7 My Racing Manager Friends Venetia Williams

Fusil Raffles (FR) 7 Mr Simon Munir & Mr Isaac Souede Nicky Henderson

Hardline (IRE) 10 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE

Hitman (FR) 6 Mason, Hogarth, Ferguson & Done Paul Nicholls

Janidil (FR) 8 Mr John P. McManus Willie Mullins IRE

Lostintranslation (IRE) 10 Taylor & O'Dwyer Colin Tizzard

Melon 10 Mrs J. Donnelly Willie Mullins IRE

Midnight Shadow 9 Mrs Aafke Clarke Sue Smith

Mister Fisher (IRE) 8 James & Jean Potter Ltd Nicky Henderson

Notebook (GER) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Henry de Bromhead IRE

Put The Kettle On (IRE) 8 One For Luck Racing Syndicate Henry de Bromhead IRE

Rouge Vif (FR) 8 Kate & Andrew Brooks Paul Nicholls

Royal Rendezvous (IRE) 10 Dr S. P. Fitzgerald Willie Mullins IRE

Saint Calvados (FR) 9 Kate & Andrew Brooks Paul Nicholls

Samcro (IRE) 10 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE

Shan Blue (IRE) 8 Mr Colm Donlon Dan Skelton

Simply The Betts (IRE) 9 Kate & Andrew Brooks Paul Nicholls

Sizing Pottsie (FR) 8 Ann & Alan Potts Limited Jessica Harrington IRE

Tornado Flyer (IRE) 9 T. F. P. Willie Mullins IRE

[Benjy23]

Janidil not even entered in the Gold Cup! Looks a decent E/W shout for this race now.

There's very few in that list that you'd put this as a likely target and give any sort of chance to isn't there.

[Kautostar]

No chantry house, allmankind or espoir de romay who I presume is injured

[isitmarchyet]

Left my roll up on him because I thought Chantry House would still get an entry here. Also realised I never cashed out my Protektorat bet for this race even though I'd taken it off my spreadsheet.

[Nathaniel99999]

Janidil's run in the John Durkan was some performance, but I'd be weary reaching the conclusion he doesn't stay. The JD was a tough race, evidenced by Allaho coming straight here. Janidil posted an RPR of 167 and ran Allaho to 2L that day, which was some performance, comfortably his best. He's definitely improved, but backing up in the Savills 23 days after that effort was a really tall ask, and he's run well. He hasn't lost by 20L or finished treading on treacle, he's lost by 7L and I think JP will see this as Fakir's trip and they'll persist with further for Janidil.

I think Mullins personally wanted to experiment the trip because Janidil was staying on in the John Durkan, I think it was worth a go from how the race finished. I personally wouldn't be too worried about the 2m 5f trip at Cheltenham hopefully on goodish ground since the John Durkan race was abit of a slog at the finish and Janidil still did well considering. Allaho I do rate but to do this race a 2nd time I just can't see it myself and the odds its at now. Janidil is the only one who is worth a go E/W since others in the betting such as Fakir, Tornado flyer, Saint Calvados and Asterion Forlonge. If hes in a good enough position in the race then hes got a great chance winning the race I think.

[charlie]

I think Mullins personally wanted to experiment the trip because Janidil was staying on in the John Durkan, I think it was worth a go from how the race finished. I personally wouldn't be too worried about the 2m 5f trip at Cheltenham hopefully on goodish ground since the John Durkan race was abit of a slog at the finish and Janidil still did well considering. Allaho I do rate but to do this race a 2nd time I just can't see it myself and the odds its at now. Janidil is the only one who is worth a go E/W since others in the betting such as Fakir, Tornado flyer, Saint Calvados and Asterion Forlonge. If hes in a good enough position in the race then hes got a great chance winning the race I think.

Yeh doesnt matter now as mins after I posted Janidil was entered for this and not the GC

[Eggs]

….unsurprisingly, Richard Thompson saying this is the definite plan for Allaho.

50/50 here or CC for Envoi.

[Lobos]

….unsurprisingly, Richard Thompson saying this is the definite plan for Allaho.
He did add ..........'at the moment' to that.

[charlie]

….unsurprisingly, Richard Thompson saying this is the definite plan for Allaho.

50/50 here or CC for Envoi.

I couldn't have Envoi for anything at the moment. I was told that the HDB yard don't rate him anywhere near as highly as GE and he shows very little at home, and was just well placed by GE as a novice. He obviously has ability, that goes without saying, but I don't think he'll every reach the heights we all thought he would this time last year, but I'd love to be wrong about that.